NBA - 509 Miami Heat @ 510 Atlanta Hawks
Projected Line: 203 points
Atlanta has a great strength this season: the depth of their roster! The fact that they got rid of Joe Johnson's monster contract allow them to have a very good roster, full of depth, something they didn't have on the previous seasons. With this strength, coach Larry Drew can use different strategies on the team's games and Atlanta won't always use the same lineup, as in fact they have used three different lineups on their first three games of the season. Anyway, after using a small lineup against Houston on their season debut, Larry Drew used a big lineup to face Indiana's physical frontcourt, with Josh Smith as SF, Al Horford as PF and Zaza Pachulia as Center. The differences in terms of pace and transition points were huge. Against Houston, they had a 95.64 pace and scored 33 fast break points, while against Indiana, the pace was 88.92 and they scored just 13 fast break points. For tonight's game against Miami, Larry Drew will use a small ball lineup with Jeff Teague, Deshawn Stevenson, Kyle Korver, Josh Smith and Al Horford. So, the pace of this game will be closer to their game against Houston than with their game against Indiana.
Atlanta will be facing a Miami offense that is simply awesome! On their first five games of the season, they had offensive rates of 130.10, 96.45, 129.28, 126.19 and 121.87! Miami is sharing the ball and they're creating easy looks after easy looks. Atlanta's lineup won't be able to stop Miami's offense, however Atlanta will also have their offensive weapons to pound Miami, as they will have good shooters on the court with Kyle Korver and Louis Williams. Atlanta has been impressive on transition plays this season by being #7 on the league with 1.24 PPP, while Miami has been so impressive on offense that they aren't showing a lot of effort on defense. I know Brooklyn scored just 73 points against them in Miami's last game, but they shot 0-9 FG from 10-15 feet, 4-13 FG from 16-23 feet and 3-21 3pts for a combined of 7-43 from +10 feet! The Nets completely self-destruct with some horrible shooting.
We're used to watch games between these two teams, where they are slow paced games, in clear half court battles, with Joe Johnson battling against Miami's anemic offense. But we will have a run and gun game this time and the linemarkers failed to realize that. Therefore, I see value on the Over and I'll be taking it in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
No comments:
Post a Comment