NBA - 517 Indiana Pacers @ 518 Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Line: 180 points
Indiana continues to heavily struggle on offense. They are coming from a game in Atlanta, where they actually had two good offensive quarters (2nd and 3rd quarters), but once Atlanta mixed up with some zone defense, they were completely shutdown. The Hawks made a 18-0 run down the stretch that decided the game. During that stretch, the Pacers offense didn't know what to do with the ball, they were simply burning the clock and then, they would attempt desperate tough shots! They have a poor ball movement and they are also poor in perimeter shooting, so they struggle against zone defense.
In their first five games of the season, Indiana had offensive rates of 98.64, 92.82, 96.96, 90.75 and 96.37! They'll face tonight a tough Minnesota defense that has been impressive, especially near the basket, as they are #3 in the league in points in the paint allowed and #1 in defending at the rim with just 51.9% FG allowed! They have Nikola Pekovic, a good positional center who is tough to gain position against him, Andrei Kirilenko, who is an outstanding defensive players, and coming off the bench they have Greg Stiemsma, who is also being very solid on defense, something that he had already been last season in Boston. Minnesota's main struggle is indeed their lack of speed on the backcourt and that's why they got crushed by Kyle Lowry + DeMar DeRozan and also by Deron Williams + Joe Johnson on previous games! Luke Ridnour has back problems and Brandon Roy is simply too slow to defend well and they're struggle on this area. However, Indiana is struggling on shooting the ball from the perimeter, so Minnesota will be fine tonight.
With Minnesota limiting Indiana's frontcourt, the Pacers will definitely struggle offensively tonight. However, that should also happen with Minnesota's offense. They really miss Kevin Love on offense, as Brandon Roy is still working to get back to his form, Luke Ridnour has been streaky and they only have Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko left, but the Pacers have a tough and physical frontcourt, so they won't be an easy opponents for the Wolves offense. If Minnesota is #1 in the league in defending at the rim, Indiana is #2 in the league on rim defense!
With both teams preventing their opponent from having easy shots down low tonight, this game will be reduced into two teams taking bad perimeter shots and the team who will miss less from the perimeter will win the game. Indiana in #26 on 16-23 feet shooting and #27 from the 3pts line, while Minnesota is #27 on 16-23 feet shooting and #24 from the 3pts line, so both teams will miss a lot tonight. I expect a very low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517/518 Under 183,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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