Projected Line: Pittsburgh by 17 points
It's very hard to expect something in here but a very easy win for Pittsburgh. After a poor start of the season, the Steelers have woken up and they have won four of their last five games, including three wins on the last three weeks against Cincinnati on the road, Washington at home and the NY Giants on the road. Ben Roethlisberger is having a very solid solid with a 16/4 TD/INT ratio, while being #5 in completion percentage, #11 in yards per pass attempt, #5 in QB rating and #1 in third down conversion, while the running game started terribly, but once Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer started getting carries and gaining momentum, the Steelers' running game started producing good yardage, giving an excellent support to the passing game, something that has turned the Steelers into one of the best offenses in the league. The offensive line is also having a good season and Pittsburgh should have no problems in putting a good number of points tonight over a Chiefs' pass defense that allows a lot of big plays (dead last in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt and in QB rating allowed) and a run defense that isn't much better (#28 with 4.6 rushing yards allowed per carry). Even though tonight's game will be played under a lot of rain and with low temperatures, the Steelers are more than used to these poor conditions and they should be able to pound the weak Chiefs defense tonight.
On the other hand, I smell a disaster for Matt Cassel, as he has been a disaster in almost every game this season, let alone on a game played under a lot of rain, strong wind and against a good Steelers defense. The Chiefs have turned the ball over 29 times in eight games and under such poor weather conditions, I just can't expect Kansas City's offense to protect the ball well tonight. Their only chance of getting some offensive production tonight is via their running game with Jamaal Charles, but not only Pittsburgh has a decent run defense (#9 on the league with 4.0 yards allowed per carry), as Charles is currently banged up with a neck injury sustained in last week's game in San Diego. Besides that, the Chiefs will most likely get behind in the score fast (they are yet to lead a game in regular time this season) and so, they will eventually abandon the running game and I just can't see Matt Cassel not struggling tonight against a good Steelers pass defense that leads the league in yards allowed per pass attempt, while being also #3 in the league in completion percentage allowed.
Pittsburgh also has an edge on special teams (even with punt returner Antonio Brown out for tonight) and so, I don't believe the Steelers will struggle in front of National TV against one of the worst teams in the league. I expect a clear blowout for Pittsburgh for tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 240 Pittsburgh Steelers (-12,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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