Projected Line: Miami by 10 points
Miami is coming from a loss in Memphis last night, in a game where the Grizzlies were amazing in both ends of the floor. Miami's game plan to limit Memphis' frontcourt worked because the Grizzlies shot just 15-31 FG at the rim and 4-8 FG from 3-9 feet, with Marc Gasol shooting just 1-6 FG and the whole Grizzlies shooting just 1-9 FG on post up plays! The problem is that Miami allowed Memphis to have more space on the outside and even though the Grizzlies were just #29 on the league in spot up plays, the truth is that they were red hot on the outside with 14-24 3pts! Wayne Ellington was red hot with 7-11 3pts and led the Grizzlies on this huge perimeter shooting night. On defense, Memphis' good perimeter defense worked extremely well, as Miami shot just 1-7 on pick and roll ball handler, 4-9 FG on cuts and even just 5-16 on spot up plays. The only way Miami really had to score in the game was via transition plays with 23 fast break points!
For tonight's game in Houston, Miami will have a better matchup. Houston is the team in the league who has a bigger volume on shots at the rim with 32 FGA per game, but they aren't very efficient with just 61% FG in those shots, an efficiency that puts them out of the top 20! Houston doesn't have anybody on the frontcourt that forces the Heat to double team a player, as Omer Asik is limited on offense and Patrick Patterson also doesn't impress, so Miami won't need to worry with Houston's frontcourt tonight. Miami has been a good defensive team at the rim, as they showed yesterday, by allowing just 60% FG! Houston's offense depends a lot from James Harden and Jeremy Lin on their pick and roll plays, where they are efficient by being #8 in the league with 0.82 PPP. However, the problem is that Miami can put a lot of pressure on the ball handler, as you may remember from last season's game between the Heat and the Knicks, where Miami put loads of pressure on Lin and made him struggle big time. The Rockets have also been very turnover prone on this early season and Miami on a bounce back spot tonight has a good shot to force a good number of turnovers tonight.
The Rockets have a quite bad defense on transition plays and on their game against the Nuggets, Houston was completely outmatched in the fast break department, as Kenneth Faried, Ty Lawson and Corey Brewer consistently beat the Rockets up the court, forcing them to allow 21 fast break points to Denver. Also against the Hawks, Houston allowed 33 fast break points, so I believe Miami will pound Houston tonight on transition plays as well.
This is a good spot for Miami, even though they are on a back to back spot, as they had a blowout loss yesterday and nobody played 40 minutes or more. Houston's second unit is very poor with only Carlos Delfino giving some quality to the team, so I expect a fired up Miami to blowout the Rockets tonight, as they should be able to stop the Rockets' offense and pound Houston at the offensive end with their transitions and excellent all-around offense. I'm taking the Heat in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Miami Heat (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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