NBA Free Premium Play 11/12: Boston Celtics @ Chicago Bulls

Boston  at Chicago

NBA - 707 Boston Celtics @ 708 Chicago Bulls Projected Line: pk line I like the Celtics in here. I watched their games against Philadelphia and in Milwaukee, where their main two weaknesses were exposed: their poor rebounding and they inability to stop the penetrations from the opposing guards, as they were exposed by Jrue Holliday and Monta Ellis, as Boston isn't good on the first defensive step and with that they open space on the backcourt for their opponents to shoot. If it's a fact that Chicago will definitely have a rebounding edge on this contest, the truth is that the Bulls don't have guards that really like to penetrate into the basket, as Rip Hamilton is a jump shooter and Nate Robinson only does that at times, besides the fact he is undersized and doesn't scare Boston. Chicago keeps having problems in terms of offensive continuity between the first and second unit and things won't get easy for them, with Kirk Hinrich being out of tonight's game, something that will put Nate Robinson in the starting line, leaving the second unit without their best scorer that generally comes off the bench. The Bulls are #1 on pick and roll ball handler with 1.08 PPP (points per possession), but that's mostly due to Kirk Hinrich's excellent pick and rolls, as he has 1.25 PPP on this kind of play! Chicago is also very strong at the rim by shooting 67% FG at this area and the Celtics aren't good at defending at the rim. However, Boston struggles at the rim, but the damage is generally done via the opposing guards, while Chicago generally attacks the rim with their big men. Boston is coming from a good win at Milwaukee, where Paul Pierce moving better than in the other games. The Celtics continues to have a good ball movement, but it is focused on the perimeter. The good news is that they are shooting quite well, with 10-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-15 3pts. Meanwhile, Paul Pierce keeps being excellent down the stretch. The only problem of the Celtics offense against the Bucks was on the pick and roll ball handler plays, with just 2-10 FG and 0.47 PPP, with Rajon Rondo having a poor game. However, he will have a clear edge against Nate Robinson and while the Bulls are generally a good pick and roll ball handler defense, that is mostly due to Kirk Hinrich's excellent defense (#3 in the league with 0.56 PPP). With Hinrich out for tonight's game, I expect Rajon Rondo to expose Nate Robinson's problems in defending pick and roll plays tonight. Both teams shoot a lot from the 16-23 feet area, with Boston being #1 on volume of shots from this area with 35.4% and Chicago being #2 with 32.7%. The big difference is that the Celtics are shooting 45% FG from this area, while Chicago is just shooting 39% FG! I believe the Celtics will be able to compensate Chicago's edge on rebounding and down low with some excellent pick and rolls and perimeter shooting, mostly thanks to Kirk Hinrich's absence that causes much more problems to the Bulls than most people think. Therefore, I'll be taking the Celtics tonight. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Boston Celtics (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker