NBA - 521 Detroit Pistons @ 522 Sacramento Kings
Projected Line: 188 points | Sacramento by 3 points
If you are a masochist or simply like to suffer, then I invite to take the Over on a game involving Sacramento and watch their offense being terrible for 48 minutes in a row! After I've mentioned that I had confirmed my worries about Sacramento's offense on the preseason on their first two games of the season against Minnesota and Chicago, I took the Under on their last two games and while we cashed the Under on their game against Golden State, we failed to cash the Under on their game against Indiana because the game went to double overtime!
But the Kings offense continues a huge mess. Terrible ball movement, poor floor spacing, terrible shot selection, all happening at the same time! They had just 13 assists on their last game against the Warriors! With their poor ball movement, they struggle in getting easy shots down low, as they had a good shooting percentage at the rim with 14-17 FG, but a low volume of shots! This inconsistency makes Sacramento have long runs without scoring and let's why they saw a 16 points lead disappear in the 4th quarter and they barely managed to sneak out their first win of the season, as they scored just 5 points in the last 4 minutes of the game!
Detroit's defense hasn't impressed a lot lately with three bad defensive games on their first four games of the season, but note that they faced Houston just a little bit after the James Harden trade (caught completely off guard), then they faced the Lakers (who even though they are struggling a bit, they are averaging 50.3% FG on their first four games) and finally, they played at Denver against a fired up Nuggets, who will be one of the best offensive teams in the league, therefore Detroit has finally a good spot tonight to make a decent defensive job.
Sacramento struggled on the perimeter against the Warriors, but the good news was that DeMarcus Cousins simply dominated with 10-16 FG, 23pts and 15reb! Today, we have a great matchup between him and Greg Monroe, where I believe both players will struggle to have a big game.
But what impressed me the most about Sacramento until now has been their great defense. Coach Keith Smart can really put his players having a good defensive effort and on their first four games of the season, they allowed offensive rates of just 99.34, 98.96, 96.96 and 99.49 to their opponents! The perimeter made an excellent job in putting pressure on Stephen Curry and he ended up just shooting 3-15 FG! Golden State moved well the ball on the perimeter, but they were very well defended by the Kings, who allowed just 6-21 3pts and 4-14 FG from 16-23 feet! Detroit is heavily struggling on the backcourt right now, with both Rodney Stuckey and Brandon Knight taking bad shots after bad shots!
I know this isn't a good spot for Detroit, as it's a back to back game, after having played at Denver last night, but they have been showing better basketball than the Kings. Sacramento has such an inconsistent offense that it's ready to team to manage a lead throughout the game and they quickly allow their opponents to get back into the game. This happened against Golden State on their last game and today against Detroit, who is desperate to finally win a game this season, the scenario should be repeated and we will have a ball game down the stretch. As much as Sacramento is showing some good defense, they should just be favored by 3 points on this contest and not 6 points, therefore I'll be taking Detroit in here. Considering Sacramento's terrible offense and decent defense, I expect this game to be a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521/522 Under 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521 Detroit Pistons (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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