Comments: NFL Week 10 - 221 Denver Broncos @ 222 Carolina Panthers
Projected Line: 43 points
I expect this game to be a surprisingly low scoring game. I know Peyton Manning is having a ridiculously good season, however he will be facing a very good defense today. Unlike what happened on Denver's last two games, where they faced the two poor pass defenses of New Orleans and Cincinnati, the Panthers are definitely improving on defense, after a very poor start of the season. They completely stopped RGIII last week and they have allowed just 16 points to Seattle, 19 points to Dallas, 23 points to Chicago and 13 points to Washington on their last four games. Not bad for a lowly team with a 2-6 record! The main reasons for the Panthers' good defensive performance are their pass rush who is working really well and a very good red zone defense, as they are #6 in the league in red zone efficiency allowed. I know Denver has a good offensive line and they are #2 in red zone efficiency, however I believe this is a letdown spot for Denver's offense, after a tough comeback win at Cincinnati last week and Carolina is certainly very motivated to play against Peyton Manning today.
The problem for the Panthers is that their offense keeps being a mess. Cam Newton is having a very disappointing sophomore season and even though he is #2 in yards per pass attempt, he is also #29 in completion percentage, #28 in QB rating and #20 in third down conversion, while posting a very poor 6/8 TD/INT ratio. The Panthers' offensive line is just average and it's expected that the Broncos' good pass rush put Newton in a lot of pressure today. Denver has been quite good in not allowing big passing plays to their opponents this season (#6 in yards per pass attempt), so I expect them to clearly limit Carolina's passing game today. The Panthers have a decent running game, but also in here Denver has a good run defense by being #6 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry with just 3.7 yards. Therefore, I expect Denver to have a good defensive game and limit the Panthers to a low offensive production today.
As I expect Carolina to not allow Peyton Manning to have another huge game and the Broncos to clearly stop the Panthers' offense, I believe the totals line is just too high for the kind of game we will have in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 221/222 Under 47 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada |
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