Projected Line: New England by 17 points
Most of the recent games between these two teams have ended with the Patriots crushing the Bills on a very high scoring game and today's game should be no exception. Even though he's not having a MVP kind of season, Tom Brady is still having a super solid season with a 16/3 TD/INT ratio, while being in the top 10 in all of the major quarterback stats in the game, including completions percentage, yards per pass attempt, quarterback rating, third down conversion and red zone efficiency. After a couple of injuries, his offensive line is now back at a decent level and they should have no problems in crushing the Bills defense, which is specially bad in the clutch moments by being ranked dead last in the league in third down conversion allowed and red zone efficiency allowed. If the Patriots have an offensive edge over Buffalo on their passing game, that also happens with their running game, which is being a very pleasant surprise this season and they should be able to crush the Bills run defense, which is the worst run defense I've ever seen by allowing a ridiculous 5.7 rushing yards per carry! New England scored 52 points in Buffalo back in week 4 and I wouldn't be surprised if they get near to this number once again today, even though they will be without their TE Aaron Hernandez for today's game.
Buffalo's offense has been very inconsistent this season and I can't expect great things from Ryan Fitzpatrick today. He's being an average quarterback and even though the Patriots have indeed a poor pass defense, they aren't as bad as they were last season, while Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't able to keep throwing big passes throughout the whole game, something that his team would need today to be able to keep up with New England's fast paced and super efficient offense. Buffalo has indeed a good running game, with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller forming an excellent duo of running backs, however New England is #2 on the league on rushing yards allowed per carry with just 3.5 yards and they should be able to limit Buffalo's offensive production today. I believe the Bills will score a decent number of points today, the problem is that New England is going to put another ridiculous number of points on them. New England is coming from a bye week, they have a very good spot for today and so, I expect a clear double digits points win for them today. I'll be taking the Patriots in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 216 New England Patriots (-13,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 10 - 219 San Diego Chargers @ 220 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Line: Tampa Bay by 6 points
Both teams are coming from wins last week, however I have absolutely no doubt that Tampa Bay is on a better moment than San Diego right now. The Bucs offense is carrying a lot of momentum and they are #1 in the league on yards per play! Josh Freeman is having a career season and he has currently a 16/5 TD/INT ratio, while being #3 in yards per pass attempt, #9 in QB rating and #4 in red zone efficiency! He has a problem with his completion percentage, but he compensates that with some excellent big plays, where he keeps finding his receivers. If Tampa Bay was dangerous just with their passing game, they only got much more dangerous with the explosion of rookie RB Doug Martin, who has rushed for 386 yards on his last two games! The offensive line is also working very well, even with Carl Nicks out for the season, and Tampa Bay has definitely one of the best offenses in football right now. San Diego has a good run defense and an average pass defense, but considering the momentum the Bucs offense is currently carrying, I wouldn't be surprised if Doug Martin runs over the Chargers today, while San Diego struggles to stop the Bucs' passing game as well. Also note that San Diego is #31 in red zone efficiency allowed, while Tampa Bay is #4 in red zone efficiency, so the Bucs will have a good matchup to take advantage of the opportunities that they will surely have to score touchdowns.
If Tampa Bay's offense is currently amazing, the same can't be said about their secondary. However, I just don't trust Philip Rivers right now. He may have completed 18 of his 20 passes last week against Kansas City, but one of his two missed passes resulted in an easy interception on a terrible pass by Rivers. He's just being an average quarterback this season (#6 in completion percentage, #21 in yards per pass attempt, #13 in QB rating, #14 in third downs and #18 in red zone efficiency), while having a poor 12/10 TD/INT ratio. Tampa Bay has already intercepted the opposing quarterback 13 times this season, so don't be surprised if they also intercept Rivers today. The Chargers have an average running game to support their passing game, but Tampa Bay is #1 on run defense with 3.4 rushing yards allowed per carry and therefore, I don't expect Ryan Matthews and his teammates to have a positive game today.
Tampa Bay is carrying a lot of momentum right now, while San Diego was lucky to have faced Kansas City last week, in order to stop their losing streak because the truth is that the Chargers aren't playing well right now. I believe the Bucs will have a big offensive game today, while San Diego will struggle on offense, so I'll be taking Tampa Bay for another win today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 220 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 10 - 221 Denver Broncos @ 222 Carolina Panthers
Projected Line: 43 points
I expect this game to be a surprisingly low scoring game. I know Peyton Manning is having a ridiculously good season, however he will be facing a very good defense today. Unlike what happened on Denver's last two games, where they faced the two poor pass defenses of New Orleans and Cincinnati, the Panthers are definitely improving on defense, after a very poor start of the season. They completely stopped RGIII last week and they have allowed just 16 points to Seattle, 19 points to Dallas, 23 points to Chicago and 13 points to Washington on their last four games. Not bad for a lowly team with a 2-6 record! The main reasons for the Panthers' good defensive performance are their pass rush who is working really well and a very good red zone defense, as they are #6 in the league in red zone efficiency allowed. I know Denver has a good offensive line and they are #2 in red zone efficiency, however I believe this is a letdown spot for Denver's offense, after a tough comeback win at Cincinnati last week and Carolina is certainly very motivated to play against Peyton Manning today.
The problem for the Panthers is that their offense keeps being a mess. Cam Newton is having a very disappointing sophomore season and even though he is #2 in yards per pass attempt, he is also #29 in completion percentage, #28 in QB rating and #20 in third down conversion, while posting a very poor 6/8 TD/INT ratio. The Panthers' offensive line is just average and it's expected that the Broncos' good pass rush put Newton in a lot of pressure today. Denver has been quite good in not allowing big passing plays to their opponents this season (#6 in yards per pass attempt), so I expect them to clearly limit Carolina's passing game today. The Panthers have a decent running game, but also in here Denver has a good run defense by being #6 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry with just 3.7 yards. Therefore, I expect Denver to have a good defensive game and limit the Panthers to a low offensive production today.
As I expect Carolina to not allow Peyton Manning to have another huge game and the Broncos to clearly stop the Panthers' offense, I believe the totals line is just too high for the kind of game we will have in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 221/222 Under 47 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada
NFL Week 10 - 227 Atlanta Falcons @ 228 New Orleans Saints
Projected Line: 57 points
The story for this game is quite simple: two great offenses + two poor defenses = shootout! After a poor start of the season, Drew Brees and the rest of the Saints offense is now back at a very good level. Drew Brees has already a good 22/8 TD/INT ratio, while being #8 in QB rating, #6 in third down conversion and #1 in red zone efficiency! Atlanta's pass defense has been surviving with their takeaways (already 10 interceptions), as they are just #21 in completion percentage, #22 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #11 in quarterback rating allowed, #22 in third down conversion allowed and #22 in red zone efficiency allowed. Atlanta's pass rush has been average and they shouldn't put a lot of pressure on Drew Brees, who should have no problems in having a good game today. The Saints' running game also reappeared last week against Philadelphia and I expect them to give a good help to the Saints passing game, as Atlanta's run defense is quite poor by being #30 in the league with 4.9 rushing yards allowed per carry!
The problem for New Orleans is that Atlanta will also pound their very poor defense. Matt Ryan is having a very good season, he is working extremely well with Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner is also playing a bit better and Atlanta should have absolutely no problem in pounding the worst pass defense in the league and the second worst run defense in the league! Therefore, I expect this game to be a super high scoring game, with the winner scoring over 30 points and the loser being very close from that mark as well. So, even considering the high totals line, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 227/228 Over 53,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 10 - 229 Detroit Lions @ 230 Minnesota Vikings
Projected Line: Detroit by 6 points
Even though both teams have a similar record, it's clear that Detroit is on the rise, while Minnesota is regressing very quickly, after a very good start of the season. Matthew Stafford struggled early on the season, but he has regained his confidence back and he is now playing at a decent level. The main proof that his confidence is back is the fact that he has been especially good in the clutch moments of the games by being #9 in third down conversion and #8 in red zone efficiency. Minnesota's pass defense doesn't scare anybody by being #20 in completion percentage allowed, #8 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #23 in QB rating allowed, #28 in third down conversion allowed and #18 in red zone efficiency allowed. Their opponents have also a combined of 14/4 TD/INT against them, so I really believe that Matthew Stafford will have a good game today, especially when the Lions' offensive line has been playing well and they should be able to handle the Vikings good pass rush. Mikel Leshoure will have a tough opponent today in the Vikings run defense, but he is in decent form and he should be also able to provide some support to his team's offense.
But the main problem for the Vikings is Christian Ponder's slump. After a decent start of the season, Ponder has been a complete mess lately, with a complete inability of throwing a big pass, something that has put him in #29 in the league in yards per pass attempt. He has just thrown 63 passing yards against Seattle last week and that was the second time in three games that he just couldn't throw the football, as he had just 58 passing yards against Arizona three weeks ago. With Percy Harvin doubtful for today, I seriously doubt things will change today. With the passing game simply not working, it's up to Adrian Peterson to carry the offense on his own. He has been amazing over the last few weeks, but he can't just do everything on his own and Detroit's run defense isn't terrible, so they should be able to somewhat limit the damage Peterson will do today. It's also important to note that Peterson is coming from a huge game in Seattle and he has missed a practice Thursday due to illness.
I believe Minnesota is regressing big time and with their defense being just average and their passing game being a mess, I just don't see how they can be competitive against a Lions team that is carrying momentum right now and they look ready to get revenge over their divisional rivals, after losing at home with Minnesota back in week 4. I expect a comfortable win for Detroit today and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 229 Detroit Lions (-2,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes
2-Team 6pts Teaser:
NFL Week 10 - 223 Tennessee Titans @ 224 Miami Dolphins
NFL Week 10 - 225 Oakland Raiders @ 226 Baltimore Ravens
A very strong wind is expected in today's game between Miami and Tennessee, so don't be surprised if the Titans keep doing what they were doing the whole time last week against Chicago: turning over the football. Jake Locker returns today to the field after being out for a month of a half due to a shoulder injury and he will immediately face one of the best defenses in football, who is coming from a poor showing in Indianapolis and so, they will look to bounce back today. Chris Johnson will also face one of the best run defenses in the league, so I really expect Miami to limit Tennessee's offense to a low efficiency level today. On the other hand, Ryan Tannehill is working very well with Brian Hartline and they should be able to expose the Titans' terrible secondary today. Tennessee's run defense is also quite poor, so Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush have also a good opportunity to have a good game today. I expect Miami to shutdown the Titans offense today, while the Dolphins should be able to have a decent offensive game against Tennessee's poor defense, so I believe the Dolphins will easily win this game.
Even with their defense crushed with injuries, Baltimore should have no problems in winning this game. Joe Flacco isn't having a wonderful season, but Oakland's pass defense is also quite poor, so I wouldn't be surprised if Flacco actually has a good game today. Ray Rice should also be able to pound the Raiders' struggling run defense, who got completely ran over by Doug Martin last week. On the other hand, both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are out for today, so Oakland will have a running game efficiency close to zero today. Therefore, Carson Palmer will have to throw a lot today and he generally takes a lot of risks and that's a recipe for disaster when you face a Ravens defense that has just allowed six TD passes to their opponents this season. Baltimore should have no problems in winning this home game against the Raiders and so, I'll take them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 224 Miami Dolphins pk x 226 Baltimore Ravens (-1,5) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 10 - 237 Houston Texans @ 238 Chicago Bears
Projected Line: 36 points | Houston by 3 points
This is one of the biggest games of the season so far, as both teams currently carry a 7-1 record. However, I believe Houston is a much more solid team than the Bears and they will show that tonight with a very important win for them. Matt Schaub is having a very solid season with 12/4 TD/INT ratio, while being #12 in completion percentage, #6 in yards per pass attempt, #7 in QB rating, #5 in third down conversion and #10 in red zone efficiency. The Texans offensive line have also been quite good this season and they should be able to control the Bears good pass rush today. Chicago has been very impressive on defense today, however note that they really depend on takeaways to stop their opponents from scoring and helping a quite average offensive unit to put points on the scoreboard. Matt Schaub is having a very solid season, he is quite experienced and I don't believe he will fall in the same traps that other much poorer and inexperienced fell against the Bears in previous weeks. Even though Chicago is 7-1 right now, the only team they defeated that currently has a positive record was Indianapolis and back in week 1, in Andrew Luck's NFL debut! Houston runs a very conservative offense by running the football a lot and they should be able to avoid turnovers today, with Matt Schaub having an unimpressive but solid performance, while Arian Foster will pound the football with decent effectiveness against an average Bears run defense that is #22 on the league in rushing yards allowed per carry.
With the Texans not turning over the football, the Bears' offense will heavily struggle in creating scoring opportunities against probably the best defense in football right now. Jay Cutler is having an average season with a 12/8 TD/INT ratio, while being #23 in completions percentage, #19 in yards per pass attempt, #18 in quarterback rating, #15 in third downs conversion and #23 in red zone efficiency. Now against Houston's great pass defense (#1 in completion percentage allowed, #4 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #3 in QB rating allowed, #1 in third down conversion allowed and #7 in red zone efficiency allowed), I really expect Jay Cutler to struggle today, especially when the Texans' great pass rush will put a lot of pressure on the Bears quite poor offensive line. Chicago's running game is quite decent as well with Matt Forte and Michael Bush, but also in here Houston defends quite well by being #9 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry.
On a game that will be played under rain and a lot of wind, I expect Houston to be able to outplay Chicago due to the fact they have a better quarterback, a much better offensive line to protect their quarterback from the opposing quality pass rush and also a better run defense. I believe this game will turn into a very physical game, with both teams using the running game a lot, with Houston prevailing on a low scoring contest. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Texans and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 237/238 Under 40 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 237 Houston Texans (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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