NBA - 511 Portland Trailblazers @ 512 Houston Rockets
Projected Line: 202 points
This totals line is just way too high at 206 points. Houston is playing on a very short rotation right now and on their first two games, they had Harden playing 44 minutes, Lin 35 minutes, Parsons 42 minutes and Asik in the first game plus yesterday in Atlanta, Lin playing 40 minutes, Harden 40 minutes and Asik 35 minutes. That's a lot of minutes for a team that will play their third game in 4 days tonight. Their frontcourt lacks quality on offense, so the backcourt has a huge pressure on their shoulders to perform well.
The curious is that Portland is currently dealing with a similar situation, as they also have a thin bench that forces their starters to play heavy minutes. In their first game, the starters played heavy minutes with four players being on court for over 35 minutes. Yesterday, these very same four players (LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews) played at least 35 minutes each! Both teams are on a tough spot for tonight, but if Houston still have some talent on the bench, the Blazers really lack talent so much that Sasha Pavlovic is their 6th man!
The public is completely crazy with the Over on this game, something that sent the line from 201 points to 206 points! The pace in the first two games of Portland was relatively slow with 92.83 and 93.43 and I don't expect this game to have a much faster pace than this! On such a pace, we would need a very good offensive game from both teams in here and that's unlikely, considering the poor spot that both teams will have tonight. This game may start with good offensive production, but at a later part of the game, the coaches will eventually have to use the bench and the drop off in offensive quality will be very evident, resulting on a low scoring quarter. Therefore, I expect this game to barely arrive to the 200 points scored (if it arrives) and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511/512 Under 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
No comments:
Post a Comment