NBA - 515 Utah Jazz @ 516 San Antonio Spurs
Projected Line: 203 points
We were spot on on our Double Dime Play in Utah's game last night in New Orleans. We knew that coach Monty Williams wouldn't want to turn the game into a fast paced one and the Hornets' gameplan was simple: decrease the game pace (84.69 - slowest pace of the league so far) and with New Orleans being a good defensive rebounding team and having a good defensive frontcourt, they were able to limit Utah's frontcourt. And they managed to do exactly that with Utah attempting 28 3pts shots, a high number of shots that they had just reached last season once again, in a game against Dallas that went to triple overtime!
With this change of style, Utah lost aggressiveness and had just 12 FT attempts and scored just 36 points in the paint. Also Utah's defense has been a disappointment, as we saw last season that they were very competitive via offense and it looks like it will be the same thing this season, as New Orleans scored 56 points in the paint! Robin Lopez shot 9-16 FG, Greivis Vasquez had another great performance and New Orleans had a nice offensive game thanks to Utah's passive defense.
Now onto tonight's game. I'm sure Utah will bring a lot more aggressiveness for this game. This would be inevitable in a back to back game after yesterday's poor game, but this is also a revenge game for Utah, who got crushed by San Antonio last season in the playoffs. What will make things easier for the Jazz tonight is that unlike the Hornets, San Antonio will want to push up the pace. San Antonio has an undersized frontcourt and so, they will want to speed the game. Therefore, with Utah playing on a fast paced game against the Spurs' undersized frontcourt, they have good chances to have a good offensive game tonight. So, the question in here is to know if the Jazz's defense will remain poor like they were in their first two games.
Manu Ginobili will play tonight and with him, the Spurs' offense immediately gains a whole new dimension, with a good ball movement. So, I don't expect San Antonio to have any problems in scoring against Utah. In the first three games between these two teams in last season's regular season (in the fourth one with the Spurs rested their starters), we have fast paced games, with good offensive rates from both teams!
PACE Off. H Off. A
93.43 106.59 99.69
96.63 111.31 104.04
96.65 122.52 103.73
With Utah being very aggressive tonight and with the Spurs' offense having Manu Ginobli back, I expect this game to be also played on a fast pace and with both teams having a good offensive night. Therefore, I came up with a totals projection of 203 points and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 199.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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