MLB - 963 Detroit Tigers @ 964 Toronto Blue Jays
(Starting Pitchers: M. Scherzer vs J. Johnson)
Toronto will start Josh Johnson tonight, who was starting to show his best baseball lately, until he faced two elite offensive teams on his last two starts and struggled. However, even on those games, he had decent advanced numbers with 1.86 FIP + 3.98 xFIP and 4.06 FIP + 3.07 xFIP! Thanks to this, Johnson ended June with a 3.27 FIP and 3.14 xFIP! Excellent numbers! Johnson faced the Tigers on the road in early April and he got crushed with six runs allowed in just 1.1 innings! He has some weird numbers versus RH batters (.326 BA, .418 wOBA, 5.43 FIP and 4.48 xFIP), but it's true that he is underrated right now with a 5.21 ERA, but a 3.82 FIP! Therefore, I expect him to be able to have a decent outing tonight.
On the other side, Max Scherzer will start for the Tigers tonight and he has been simply amazing this season. According to my metrics, he faced four above average offensive teams on his last six starts and his average FIP- on these four games was 56 (100 is the average; the less a pitcher has, the better)! Of course Toronto is a very strong hitting team at home, but Max seems ready to face any opponent this season! Therefore, I can only expect Scherzer to have another good outing in here. Considering we will have on this game a top 3 pitcher in the league and a very underrated Josh pitching on this matchup, I expect tonight's game to be a much lower scoring affair than the offensive explosions that happened on the first two games of the series. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963/964 Under 8,5 (w/ M. Scherzer & J. Johnson) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes
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