MLB - 919 New York Yankees @ 920 Minnesota Twins
(Starting Pitchers: P. Hughes vs S. Deduno)
Phil Hughes is starting for the Yankees tonight and he is being very inconsistent this season, but with a clear pattern. He struggles against good offenses (LAA, OAK, BOS), while he has good outings against subpar offenses (TEX, SEA, NYM). Hughes's numbers are explained with his struggles versus LH batters: .303 BA and .391 wOBA allowed, 5.52 FIP and 4.94 xFIP. Considering how the Twins' lineup is loaded with LH batters right now, I expect Hughes to struggle tonight.
Minnesota will start Samuel Deduno, who allowed just one run in seven innings against the Royals last Thursday. Deduno has been pitching well and he had good outings at Cleveland and Detroit, with 2.05 and 3.34 FIP on these games. Even though they were facing the slumping Scott Diamond, the Yankees struggled with generating runs against him yesterday and it was Minnesota's bullpen who screwed up at the end. I see the Twins having a clear SP + offense edge in here, so I'll be taking Minnesota tonight. As the Yankees have a clear bullpen edge on this matchup, I'll be taking the Twins on the first five innings.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 920 Minnesota Twins FIRST 5 INNINGS ML (w/ S. Deduno) @ -113 / 1.89 on 5Dimes
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