MLB - 915 Toronto Blue Jays @ 916 Boston Red Sox
(Starting Pitchers: M. Buehrle vs R. Dempster)
Toronto will start Mark Buehrle today and he finally struggled on an outing on his last start, where he allowed four runs in five innings against the Rays, with a poor 2/4 K/BB ratio. However, it's important to note that Tampa Bay is #1 in the league in hitting versus LH pitchers this season, so this was a very tough matchup for Buehrle. The truth is that the Blue Jays' pitcher has been great in June with a 3.72 FIP and 4.46 xFIP, much better than he did in April and May.
On the other hand, Ryan Dempster is coming from six quality starts in a row, but the advanced numbers tell a different story. In fact, all six starts have an adjusted FIP of higher than 100 (higher than league average), something that shows that Dempster wasn't that impressive after all. Dempster is homerun prone and Toronto is #3 on ISO in June with .166, so the Blue Jays should be able to expose that today. I believe this game should have had a 50/50 line, so I see great value on Toronto today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 915 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ M. Buehrle) @ +130 / 2.30 on Bovada
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