MLB Premium Play 08/28: Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

MLB - 971 Baltimore Orioles @ 972 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: B. Norris vs J. Lackey)
Bud Norris will start for Baltimore and he can be a decent pitcher if he isn't facing lineups loaded with LH batters. But when that doesn't happen, he struggles a lot and he is allowing .305 BA, .386 wOBA, 13.7% K% vs 9.5% BB%, 5.35 FIP and 5.12 xFIP against LH hitters this season. He is coming from an outing against Oakland, where he faced the following lineup:

1. Coco Crisp (S) CF
2. Jed Lowrie (S) SS
3. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
4. Brandon Moss (L) 1B
5. Yoenis Cespedes (R) LF
6. Seth Smith (L) RF
7. Alberto Callaspo (S) DH
8. Eric Sogard (L) 2B
9. Stephen Vogt (L) C

The A's had 7 batters hitting from the left side and with that, Norris allowed seven earned runs in just 4.2 innings! Unfortunately for Norris, Boston will have a similar approach tonight with several quality LH batters on the lineup to pound him. This is why Norris is allowing .385 BA and 1.088 OPS in 52 AB's to Boston's roster!

On the other side, John Lackey will start for Boston and after a bad game at Kansas City, he bounced back with two good outings against the two hottest teams in the league: one earned run allowed against the Yankees in 6.2 innings and two earned runs allowed in eight innings against the Dodgers! This is a great indicator about how good he has been pitching and therefore, he should be able to limit the damage against Baltimore, something that should be enough to allow his team to pick up an easy win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 972 Boston Red Sox RL -1 (w/ J. Lackey) @ -127 / 1.79 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/25: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB - 929 Boston Red Sox @ 930 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Peavy vs C. Capuano)

Jake Peavy will start for the Red Sox tonight and after a disastrous start at Kansas City when he was red hot, he bounced back well with back to back quality outings at Toronto and San Francisco. His problem this season besides his health has been the homeruns with a 12.1% HR/FB rate and a 46.2% FB%. This is why his bad starts are always a synonym of homeruns allowed. The good news for Peavy today is that he will pitch tonight on an extremely pitcher-friendly park, so he should be fine tonight.

The Dodgers will start Chris Capuano and he is coming from giving up three earned runs in five innings against Miami last Tuesday. He has been struggling lately with 6, 10 and 10 hits allowed on his last three outings, while having poor strikeout numbers, with a combined of 7 strikeouts in 14.1 innings, something that has high pitch counts as a consequence with 16.2, 17.2 and 19.8 P/IP on his last three games. The Dodgers were able to still win these three games because they scored 7, 5 and 6 runs, but I don't think they will be able to do that against Peavy tonight. Boston isn't a top offensive against LH pitchers, but they are hitting above .300 BA vs LHP on their last 10 games and they were able to cause damage on Ryu yesterday. Therefore, I believe Boston has an excellent matchup to win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 929 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Peavy) @ -108 / 1.92 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 08/23: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB - 929 Boston Red Sox @ 930 Los Angeles Dodgers
(Starting Pitchers: J. Lackey vs R. Nolasco)

This is a good spot for Boston, as they had a day off yesterday, while the Dodgers played last night in Miami. Besides that, the Dodgers are coming from three series against lowly teams (NY Mets, Philadelphia, Miami) and they will now have a much tougher series against the Red Sox. The Dodgers "spent" their two aces Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke against Miami, so they'll have to start Ricky Nolasco on the first game of this series. Nolasco had four decent performances in August, but three of them were against subpar offenses (Philadelphia, NY Mets and Chicago Cubs) that are the bottom 10 on hitting against RH pitchers. His outing at St Louis was indeed game with no runs allowed in five innings, but he had a 20.6 P/IP ratio, not impressive at all. Boston is a very patient lineup and therefore, they will eventually put Nolasco in trouble tonight.

On the other side, John Lackey will start for Boston tonight and even though he isn't at the same level that he was a few months ago, he keeps being solid. In fact, Lackey allowed just one earned run in 6.2 innings against the Yankees and that's a good sign for him. Lackey's only issue was a high 14.1% HR/FB rate, but that won't be a problem at the Dodgers stadium. Lackey had solid numbers in August with 3.20 ERA, 3.29 FIP and 3.47 xFIP, so I believe he will give Boston a SP edge tonight. If we combine that with a better spot, I believe the Red Sox have great value tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 929 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Lackey) @ -101 / 1.99 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 08/20: Boston Red Sox @ San Francisco Giants

MLB - 981 Boston Red Sox @ 982 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: J. Peavy vs R. Vogelsong)

Boston was on a poor spot yesterday, but they still crushed the Giants. Jon Lester pitched for 8.1 innings, so the Red Sox bullpen could rest. For tonight's game, Boston will have a clear SP edge. Ryan Vogelsong will start for San Francisco and this will be his third start after returning from the DL. The problem is that it's clear that he isn't ready to play right now. His command has been poor with a 7/6 K/BB ratio and he just can't go deep in the games due to a high P/IP ratio. To make things worse, his velocity is at a career low of 88 mph! Now against the #1 team in the league in hitting versus RH pitchers, I expect the worst for Vogelsong.

On the other hand, Jake Peavy will start for the Red Sox and after allowing six earned runs to the Royals in five innings, he bounced back at Toronto with two earned runs allowed in six innings. As a flyball pitcher, Peavy struggles with homeruns with a poor 12.7% HR/FB%, but this won't be a problem at San Francisco, so he should dominate the Giants. Considering the SP & offense edges for Boston tonight, I can only expect an easy win for them tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 981 Boston Red Sox RL -1 (w/ J. Peavy) @ -132 / 1.76 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/14: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays

MLB - 969 Boston Red Sox @ 970 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lester vs E. Rogers)

Boston will start Jon Lester tonight, who is coming from three runs (one earned) allowed against Kansas City last Thursday. This was a good bounce back from Lester, who had a disastrous outing against Arizona, where he was unlucky as well with a .588 BABIP! Toronto's offense is no joke, but they are just #18 against LH pitchers, with .200 BA on their last 10 games against them. Therefore, I believe Lester will have a decent outing tonight.

Esmil Rogers will start for the Blue Jays and he is still on the rotation only because of Josh Johnson's injury. He has been a pure disaster on the second half of the season, with 7, 5, 8, 2 and 4 earned runs allowed! His numbers against LH batters are absolutely terrible with .321 BA, .394 wOBA, 5.47 FIP and 4.96 xFIP! Therefore, Rogers will have a horrible matchup tonight against a Red Sox's lineup that will have five players hitting from the left side:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF

2. Shane Victorino (S) RF

3. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B

4. David Ortiz (L) DH

5. Jonny Gomes (R) LF

6. Stephen Drew (L) SS

7. Mike Napoli (R) 1B

8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S) C

9. Will Middlebrooks (R) 3B

Therefore, I believe Boston will have an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Lester) @ -145 / 1.69 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 08/10: Boston Red Sox @ Kansas City Royals

MLB - 971 Boston Red Sox @ 972 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: F. Doubront vs J. Guthrie)

Felix Doubront will start for Boston tonight and his consistency has been incredible as of late. He had back to back quality outings against the best hitting team versus LH pitchers (Tampa Bay) and he is also coming from a nice outing against Arizona. Kansas City has been hitting very well against RH pitchers lately with .317 BA, but things have been much tougher for them against LH pitchers like Doubront with .220 BA. Therefore, I expect Doubront to have another quality start tonight. Kansas City will start Jeremy Guthrie, who is coming from three nice starts with 0, 2 and 1 earned runs allowed, but he keeps struggling against LH batters with .296 BA, .371 wOBA, 5.61 FIP and 4.96 xFIP allowed. Boston knows that and they will have a lineup full of lefties tonight:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF

2. Shane Victorino (S) RF

3. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B

4. David Ortiz (L) DH

5. Mike Carp (L) LF

6. Mike Napoli (R) 1B

7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S) C

8. Stephen Drew (L) SS

9. Will Middlebrooks (R) 3B

The Red Sox's roster is hitting .359 BA and 1.070 OPS in 192 AB's against Guthrie and I expect them to keep pounding him tonight. I'm taking the Red Sox in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 971 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ F. Doubront) @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 08/02: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox

MLB - 977 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 978 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: R. Delgado vs J. Lester)

This isn't a good spot for Boston, who is coming from a 15 innings marathon and then a huge 9th inning comeback win in back to back days, but Arizona has an even worse spot, as they played a series at Tampa Bay, then played a make-up game at Texas yesterday, just to travel to Boston to start a new series tonight! Jon Lester will start for the Red Sox tonight and he allowed two runs in 6.1 innings against Baltimore last Sunday. After some struggles, Lester made some adjustments during the All Star break and he dominated his last two outings against the tough Rays and Orioles, with a combined of 16/2 K/BB! Arizona will be on a horrible spot tonight, their offense is struggling (#22 L7 days), so I believe Lester will dominate once again tonight.

The Dbacks will start Randall Delgado tonight, who is coming from a complete game three-hit shutout against San Diego last Friday. Delgado has been pitching well, but he has the problem of being too hittable (.271 BA) and this should be problematic against the Red Sox tonight, who are #2 in the league on BA with .273! I expect Lester to absolutely dominate the tired Dbacks tonight, while Boston will eventually make some damage on Delgado, so I believe the Red Sox will pick up a comfortable win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 978 Boston Red Sox RL -1 (w/ J. Lester) @ -143 / 1.70 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/01: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

MLB - 917 Seattle Mariners @ 918 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: F. Hernandez vs R. Dempster)

Felix Hernandez will start for the Mariners tonight and he keeps being the #1 SP on my league rankings. Hernandez allowed just one run in an almost complete game against Minnesota. He had five days of rest for tonight's game and looking at his current form, he has every condition to have another quality outing today. On the other side, Boston will start Ryan Dempster, who allowed two runs over 5.1 innings against the Orioles last Saturday. This was the seventh start in a row where Dempster couldn't make it to the 7th inning, thanks to a lot of walks, poor control and a high P/IP count. Yesterday's game only ended in the 15th inning and Boston's best relievers were all used yesterday. Seattle's offense is very dangerous against RH pitchers (.273 BA vs RHP L10 games) and so, I believe they will produce some runs tonight, while Hernandez will be dominant as usual. Therefore, I'll be taking Seattle in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917 Seattle Mariners ML (w/ F. Hernandez) @ -103 / 1.97 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 07/28: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

MLB - 921 Boston Red Sox @ 922 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lester vs J. Hammel)

Jon Lester is starting for the Red Sox today and after a poor run of games, he bounced back right before the All Star break with good outings against San Diego and Oakland. After the break, he took advantage to fix some issues and he dominated Tampa Bay with two earned runs allowed in 6.1 innings, while having a great 8/0 K/BB ratio. The good news for Lester is that these three teams are top hitting teams against LH pitchers (Tampa Bay #1; Oakland #6; San Diego #5), so Lester is indeed back to his best. He will now face Baltimore, a team that is just #22 in the league versus LH pitchers with a .224 vs LHP on their last 10 games! So, Lester has every condition to dominate today.

Jason Hammel will start for Baltimore and he is currently struggling a lot: 5.24 ERA, 5.07 FIP, .279 BA and a lot of homeruns allowed with a 13.8 HR/FB rate. He had a recent good outing against the Yankees in July 7, but the Yankees' offense was horrible at the time! Now against the top hitting team of the Red Sox, who finally had a good offensive game yesterday, Hammel is getting pounded. Hammel struggles against LH batters with a .291 BA, .373 wOBA, 5.49 FIP and 5.13 xFIP this season and the Red Sox will be using six guys hitting from the left side in today's lineup:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF

2. Shane Victorino (S) RF

3. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B

4. David Ortiz (L) DH

5. Mike Napoli (R) 1B

6. Mike Carp (L) LF

7. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S) C

8. Stephen Drew (L) SS

9. Jose Iglesias (R) 3B

With such a SP edge favoring the Red Sox today, I'll have to take them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 921 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Lester) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/14: Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics

MLB - 925 Boston Red Sox @ 926 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: B. Workman vs B. Colon)

Bartolo Colon will start for Oakland today and he is coming from a good outing at Pittsburgh, where he allowed only one run in seven innings. This was Colon's 11th start in a row where he has allowed three earned runs or fewer, in a clear demonstration that he is in very good form right now. However, Colon will have a very tough task today and I'm not sure if he will succeed on it. Colon throws 85% of fastballs and he will face today the best team in hitting against fastballs this season. Besides that, Colon kinda struggles versus LH batters with .267 BA, .314 wOBA, 4.38 FIP and 4.76 xFIP, so Boston will have a lineup with six guys hitting on the left side today:

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF

2. Daniel Nava (S) RF

3. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B

4. David Ortiz (L) DH

5. Jonny Gomes (R) LF

6. Mike Carp (L) 1B

7. Ryan Lavarnway (R) C

8. Brock Holt (L) 3B

9. Jose Iglesias (R) SS

On the other side, Brandon Workman will have his first start today. He is coming from three runs in two innings on his MLB debut last Wednesday, but he posted impressive numbers on Triple-A Pawtucket with 2.80 ERA and 8.7 K/9. Workman was the Red Sox's top minor league pitcher last season, he is a nice prospect and I wouldn't be surprised if he takes advantage of the surprise factor to dominate Oakland today on a notoriously pitcher-friendly park like Oakland's. The A's have been struggling on offense lately by being #23 in the league over the last 14 days, so Workman has a decent spot to impress today. As I believe Colon will have some problems today, while Workman may actually be impressive in here, I expect the Red Sox to be much more impressive than the lines are currently showing, so I'll be taking them in here on the runline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 925 Boston Red Sox RL +1.5 (w/ B. Workman) @ -140 / 1.71 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/12: Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics

MLB - 925 Boston Red Sox @ 926 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lackey vs J. Parker)

Oakland is coming from a struggling series at Pittsburgh, where they couldn't hit above .200 BA in any of these three games! In fact, Oakland is just #22 over the last 14 days in terms of offense. They will face John Lackey, who allowed two runs in seven innings at LA against the Angels. This was Lackey's fifth quality start in a row, while posting a 2.25 ERA, 1.028 WHIP and 36/4 K/BB ratio! Oakland's offense hasn't been patient lately and so, I believe Lackey will pick up another quality outing tonight.

Jarrod Parker will start for the Athletics, who allowed three runs (two earned) over 6.1 innings against Kansas City. Five of Parker's last six outings were subpar, with the exception being at Texas, where he dominated the struggling at the time Rangers. Parker seems due to regress with his ERA being inferior to his FIP, xFIP and SIERA, so "nothing better" than the best offensive team in the league to pound him tonight. Lackey is in great form right now and with the Red Sox pounding Parker tonight, I believe Boston has excellent value as underdogs tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 925 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Lackey) @ +101 / 2.01 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 07/07: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels

MLB - 977 Boston Red Sox @ 978 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lackey vs J. Weaver)

The LA Angels will start Jered Weaver tonight and he has been quite inconsistent since he returned from the DL. He had two poor back to back outings at home, where he allowed five and four earned runs against the Yankees and the Pirates, while he was much more impressive on his last two starts, where not only he went deep in the games (seven innings each), as he also had stellar advanced numbers with 2.07 and 2.21 FIP! The fact that he did that against Detroit and St Louis (#1 and #5 offenses L30 days) is even more impressive! 

On the other side, Boston will start John Lackey tonight, who is coming from facing two subpar offenses in Colorado and San Diego, but prior to that he had three outings in a row against tough opponents: Detroit, Baltimore and Tampa Bay! In all these outings, Lackey looked great, while having just a few struggles against the Rays.

I believe on a Red Sox bounce back tonight after their stunning loss yesterday. Lackey is quite decent versus RH hitters this season (3.94 FIP and 2.89 xFIP, while allowing .289 BA and .348 wOBA) and he will be fired up to upset his former team on national TV. I see this game as a 50/50 contest, with the Red Sox having good value and also a better spot and so, I'll be taking Boston in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 977 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Lackey) @ +117 / 2.17 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 06/30: Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox

MLB - 915 Toronto Blue Jays @ 916 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: M. Buehrle vs R. Dempster)

Toronto will start Mark Buehrle today and he finally struggled on an outing on his last start, where he allowed four runs in five innings against the Rays, with a poor 2/4 K/BB ratio. However, it's important to note that Tampa Bay is #1 in the league in hitting versus LH pitchers this season, so this was a very tough matchup for Buehrle. The truth is that the Blue Jays' pitcher has been great in June with a 3.72 FIP and 4.46 xFIP, much better than he did in April and May.

On the other hand, Ryan Dempster is coming from six quality starts in a row, but the advanced numbers tell a different story. In fact, all six starts have an adjusted FIP of higher than 100 (higher than league average), something that shows that Dempster wasn't that impressive after all. Dempster is homerun prone and Toronto is #3 on ISO in June with .166, so the Blue Jays should be able to expose that today. I believe this game should have had a 50/50 line, so I see great value on Toronto today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 915 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ M. Buehrle) @ +130 / 2.30 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 06/16: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

MLB - 915 Boston Red Sox @ 916 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lester vs M. Gonzalez)

After a great start of the season, Jon Lester is now struggling with 7, 3, 4, 4 and 5 runs allowed on his last five outings, while having a poor command: 3/7, 4/3, 5/4 and 8/1 on his last four starts. Lester may have great historical numbers against Baltimore, but since the Orioles improved (last season), he has allowed 4, 2 and 3 runs on his outings against them, while having poor K/BB ratios.

Baltimore will start Miguel Gonzalez, who has been excellent since he came back from the DL, if we exclude a bad start against Detroit. He was particularly great on his last outing against the Angels, where he was pretty good with just one run allowed in eight innings, while having a 5/1 K/BB ratio. Considering Lester's current struggles and the fact that Gonzalez is currently on his best moment of the season, I believe Baltimore will take advantage of their nice offense and SP edge on this matchup to pick up the win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 916 Baltimore Orioles ML (w/ M. Gonzalez) @ -112 / 1.89 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 06/15: Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

MLB - 965 Boston Red Sox @ 966 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lackey vs F. Garcia)

Yesterday's game ended with just two runs scored. The hitters from both teams worked very well against the pitchers by being patient. Thanks to that, Ryan Dempster walked five batters, while Chris Tillman walker four hitters. But, unfortunately for both teams, the clutch hitting was non-existent, with Boston hitting 1-7 RISP and Baltimore 1-12! John Lackey will start for Boston today and he had been pitching well until he started struggled with homeruns by allowing 2, 1 and 3 homeruns on his last three outings. Lackey has suddenly become very hittable as well and of course his advanced numbers were worse than his ERA on his last three games. Having in account the fact that Baltimore's offense is a top team against RH pitchers, while being also a top team on isolation power (#1!), I believe Lackey will heavily struggle today.

The Orioles will start Freddy Garcia today and he has been struggling with the same problem as Lackey: homeruns, with 2 and 4 homeruns on his last two outings! This is especially worrying as Garcia has just a 4.06 K/9, so he will have to generate a lot of groundballs or it's likely that he will struggle with homeruns once again today. I believe both teams won't have a combined 2-19 RISP like yesterday and with both pitchers struggling, I believe this game will go Over the total posted.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 965/966 Over 9,5 (w/ J. Lackey & F. Garcia) @ +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 05/28: Philadelphia Phillies @ Boston Red Sox

MLB - 963 Philadelphia Phillies @ 964 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: C. Lee vs R. Dempster).

Yesterday's game between these two teams was a slugfest, with both teams hitting above .300 BA and with the game ending with 12 runs. However, I expect things to be different today and so, I believe this will be a low scoring contest. Cliff Lee has been amazing lately by allowing 0, 2, 0 and 2 earned runs on his last four starts, while his command has been quite good as well. He threw 115 pitches on his last outing, but as he had 5 days to rest prior to tonight's game, I expect him to be rested today. Boston's offense has been super well lately, but the truth is that they do most damage against RH pitchers where they lead the league. However, they are much worse against LH pitchers like Lee by being just #16 in the league with .699 OPS!

So, the key in here will be how Ryan Dempster will perform tonight, as he has been struggling lately. Dempster's pitch counts are getting quite high early on the games and he hasn't reach the fifth inning on his last three outings. However, Dempster has a great 10.83 K/9 ratio this season and this matchup against the Phillies will actually favor him deeply. Philadelphia has a 47.0% swing rate (#9 in the league) and 49.1% (#3) over the past two weeks. This means that Philadelphia's lineup will give a lot of opportunities to Dempster to strike them out. Also note that Dempster's three outings, where he struggled the most, were against Cleveland (#29 in swing rate), Minnesota (#25) and Toronto (#23), three opponents that actually made Dempster work a lot on each inning. This won't happen tonight with Philadelphia and so, I expect Dempster to bounce back tonight.

With both Lee and Dempster having great matchups tonight, I expect his contest to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963/964 Under 8 (w/ C. Lee & R. Dempster) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Play 05/24: Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox

MLB - 971 Cleveland Indians @ 972 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: J. Masterson vs J. Lackey)

Looking at the weather report, it's likely that this game will have some rain delays and if we had a perfect spot for the over yesterday, today the wind will helping the pitchers instead. Cleveland will be starting Justin Masterson, who after a bad stretch has returned to the ace-like level that he had shown at the start of the season by allowing just 0, 0 and 3 runs on his last three starts against Seattle, the NY Yankees and Oakland! He has some previous nice numbers against the Red Sox, but he actually allowed 4 runs in 5 innings on a previous start against them this season, even though that he was unlucky in that game as he had a 7.20 ERA in that outing, while having a 2.24 FIP and 3.97 xFIP! What ruined his performance on that game was the quite high .524 BABIP, his season high!

On the other side, John Lackey has been pitching well for the Red Sox this season. He had just one bad start at Tampa Bay in four games, while showing a good command with just two walks on his last three games. This is why he has overall good numbers this season: 3.31 ERA, 3.11 FIP and 3.23 xFIP! Having in account that the Indians' lineup is full of LH batters, Lackey has a good matchup tonight as he has 3.21 FIP and 3.97 xFIP against LH batters this season, while Cleveland's current roster is hitting just .221 BA and .713 OPS against him. Therefore, we have all conditions in here to have a surprising low scoring contest tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 971/972 Under 9 (w/ J. Masterson & J. Lackey) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Play 05/23: Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox

MLB - 907 Cleveland Indians @ 908 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: Z. McAllister vs R. Dempster)

Cleveland will start Zach McAllister tonight, who has been having some luck on his games, as even though he has a season ERA of 2.65, his 4.17 FIP and 4.50 xFIP shows that some regression is quite likely to happen soon. He is coming from a decent outing against Seattle, one of the worst teams in the league this season in hitting versus RH pitchers (#26 with .681 OPS). However, he had just one strikeout and his game logs weren't great at all: 2.45 ERA, but 4.94 FIP and 5.32 xFIP! He will now face the Red Sox, who are #1 in the league in hitting against RH pitchers with a great .807 OPS! McAllister has already faced Boston this season and he had to throw 112 pitches just to make it to the 5th inning! He allowed 3 runs in that outing, while walking three batters as well. He is a flyball pitcher with a 41% FB% and with the wind blowing out to left field at 10-20 mph, I expect him to really struggle tonight.

On the other side, Ryan Dempster is coming from a huge pitch count on his last outing: 127 pitches in just 4.2 innings! He had just 4 days of rest prior to this game, so this is really a poor spot for him! He had a FIP higher than 6.00 on his last two outings, so it seems clear that Dempster is struggling right now. If we exclude a game where they faced Max Scherzer and the Tigers, Cleveland's offense has been excellent lately and so, I expect them to pound Dempster tonight. Therefore, I expect a very high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907/908 Over 9,5 (w/ Z. McAllister & R. Dempster) @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline

MLB Premium Card 05/02

MLB - 961 Boston Red Sox @ 962 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: R. Dempster vs J. Happ)

NOTE: no detailed write up for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 962 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ J. Happ) @ +107 / 2.07 on 5Dimes

MLB Free Premium Play 04/01: Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

Boston  at New York Yankees

MLB - 915 Boston Red Sox @ 916 New York Yankees (Starting Pitchers: J. Lester vs C. Sabathia) The Red Sox have in my opinion a good chance to make some noise in the AL East this season, but for that they will need monster seasons from Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. And the truth is that these two pitchers showed some great stuff in Spring Training. Lester was very inconsistent last season, but he seems to be very focused right now, as he was fantastic in the preseason with a .101 BA and 0.50 WHIP allowed, while having a ridiculous 20/4 K/BB ratio. He will face a shorthanded Yankees's roster, who is struggling to find healthy batters let alone competitive ones. The Yankees will use Sabathia today as their SP and unlike Lester, Sabathia is still dealing with some elbow issues and he played just 10 innings during the Spring Training and without good results. Despite facing a ridiculous Red Sox last season, CC still struggled against Boston in two starts with a 5.14 ERA and the Red Sox seem to be better and especially more focused at the start of this season. Therefore, I believe Boston is the favorite to win today's contest and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 915 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Lester) @ -102 / 1.98 on Bovada