NBA - 817 New Orleans Hornets @ 818 Denver Nuggets
Projected Lines: Denver by 10 points | 209 points
Denver's offense has been amazing on pick and roll ball handler plays and spot ups, while they have also decent on cuts and transitions. New Orleans is a perfect matchup for them. They have been poor on their rim defense by allowing 67% FG on their last 10 games. But more problematic for them is the complete lack of effort on their transition defense, as they are currently #26 in the league on this kind of plays by allowing 1.21 PPP this season and 1.29 PPP on their last 10 games! Every time they face teams with a focus on their transitions, the Hornets's defense is like a highway. San Antonio scored 25 fast break points against them, Houston scored 20 and even Utah on their last game scored 15! So, Denver will have a nice edge on offense in transitions and on shooting at the rim. Also note that Greivis Vasquez doesn't have foot speed to stop Ty Lawson, so this is why the Hornets are an awful team in defending pick and roll ball handler plays and with Ty Lawson having a nice month of January, this is another edge for the Nuggets's offense today.
On the other hand, New Orleans has Eric Gordon back and since that happened, their offense has improved a lot. They were very tough on spot up shooting with several good shooters and this is one of the main weaknesses of Denver's defense that is just #28 in the league in spot up shooting. However, Denver is a top team in defending pick and roll ball handler plays and this might create problems to Greivis Vasquez, causing him turnovers that will result in easy transition plays for Denver. Therefore, I expect an easy win for Denver tonight on a very high scoring game, so I'll be taking both the Nuggets and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 817/818 Over 204,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 818 Denver Nuggets (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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