Projected Line: 188 points
Miami is coming from crushing Brooklyn on the road, in a game that was decided on a 16-2 run from Miami during the third quarter. Brook Lopez and Andray Blatche combined for 33 points, but the Nets got next to nothing else offensively. They shot 44.9% FG and 5-17 3pts, while Miami shot 52% FG and 11-19 3pts! The Heat exposed the lack of speed from the Nets's backcourt and scored 20 fast break points and 10-12 FG on transitions, while shooting very well from perimeter with 10-24 FG from 16-23 feet and 11-19 3pts! On the other hand, Indiana is coming from another good offensive game and they had 120.7, 111.3 and 110.7 offensive ratings on their last 3 games! The Pacers's offense had an excellent all-round game with six players having double digit points. Indiana had a good volume on transition points with 16% volume and 6-11 FG. They looked very good on cuts with 10-12 FG and on post ups with 6-15 FG.
On the last game between these two teams, Miami scored just 77 points, in their season low by a lot! Miami wasn't really ready for that game and they got completely crushed by Indiana's style. The pace of that game was super slow with 81.25 and that resulted in Miami scoring just 1 fast break point, while shooting 0-5 FG on transitions! Miami was also crushed on boards by grabbing just 37% of them, while Indiana outrebounded them on offensive rebounds by 22-7! Indiana shot terribly in that game with 36.3% FG and so, that game was a very low scoring one.
For today, Indiana's offense has been playing very well lately. They have been efficient on their outside shooting numbers with 25-58 (43%) 3pts and with their frontcourt being more solid, especially Roy Hibbert. Miami struggles on defense against powerful frontcourts, as seen on their last game against Brooklyn, but with Indiana shooting so well lately, they will be able to cause much more problems to Miami's defense than Brooklyn did. On the other side, Miami won't surely be as passive as they were on their last game against Indiana. Curiously, the Pacers's transition defense has been struggling a bit lately and they have allowed 10, 18, 21 and 11 fast break points on their last four games. Of course Miami's gameplan for tonight will be to push up the pace at every opportunity. This will be a very different game from the first these two teams had against each other, not only because Miami will be much more aggressive, as Indiana's offense is also playing at a level that they hadn't been showing earlier on the season. I expect this game to be actually a relatively high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Over 184 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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