Projected Line: San Diego by 11 points
Even though both teams are currently on losing streaks, I believe there is a clear difference between them. While San Diego may have some "excuses" for those losses and they should be able remain a postseason contender for at least most of the season, Kansas City is just a mess right now and they are condemned in being a lowly team for the rest of the season.
San Diego is coming from three losses in a row, in games that they should have won. They were leading at New Orleans until they collapsed in an unlucky fashion, with a critical flag prevented them to get a comfortable lead late in the game, then they had a second half meltdown on Monday Night Football against Denver and finally, they lost in a low scoring affair last Sunday in Cleveland, in a game where the rain made both teams struggle on offense and where Robert Meachem dropped an easy pass that would have won them the game. So, we are talking about a team with a 3-4 record, but who isn't a bad team. Philip Rivers is having an average season and the running game isn't giving more than just some support to the passing game, however the defense is playing well and they have at least some stability on their team to bounce back and get back into the winning road. That's especially the truth when they are facing a team that is a complete mess right now.
Kansas City is 1-6 this season and their only win was in overtime against New Orleans. They have lost their last four games and three of them were blowout losses at the hands of San Diego, Tampa Bay and Oakland. With Brady Quinn out of tonight's game with a concussion, Matt Cassel is back at being the team's quarterback and he has been an outright mess this season. The running game has a lot of potential, but they also lead the league in lost fumbles and even their head coach didn't have an answer for why their main running back Jamaal Charles had just 5 carries last week against Oakland. Their defense has been a complete mess as well, especially in allowing big passing plays, while their run defense is also quite poor and the pass rush is pretty much non-effective. There isn't a single unit that is working well on this team right now, the staff looks completely clueless how to make this team play at a decent level and I don't expect them to be able to stay competitive on this game, with such a turnover-prone offense and a poor defense.
I believe San Diego will be able to have a very solid offensive game tonight, with Philip Rivers playing it safe, while trying to find the right times to expose the Chiefs' poor pass defense. Their running game should also be able to give good support to the passing game, as Kansas City's run defense is poor as well. On the other hand, San Diego has one of the best run defenses in the league (#4 with 3.5 rushing yards allowed per carry) and they should be able to limit the damage that the Chiefs will make on the running game, while Matt Cassel is struggling a lot this season and the Chargers should be able to take advantage of his poor throws to force a couple of turnovers tonight.
San Diego was completely embarrassed the last time they played on National TV with an horrible second half against Denver, so this is a great opportunity for them to bounce back and crush the lowly Chiefs. Kansas City has very deep issues to solve at every area of their game and they won't be solving them for sure on a short week spot. I expect San Diego to have a solid offensive game in here, while stopping the Chiefs offense and forcing a couple of turnovers, so I expect the Chargers to have a solid double digits points win tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking San Diego in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 302 San Diego Chargers (-7) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes
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