NBA - 503 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 504 San Antonio Spurs
Projected Line: 200 points
These two teams know each other very well from last season, where almost all games were high scoring affairs. Tonight's totals line is at 204 points, so it's natural that I expect the public to like the Over in here.
Yesterday I had a big play in San Antonio plus the under on a single dime play and I lost both quite easily actually. I watched the game earlier today to realize what went wrong and my conclusions about the game are quite simple: San Antonio allowed the Hornets to do whatever they wanted in the first quarter. New Orleans finished the quarter with 31 points, while shooting 59% from the field! I don't know if Gregg Popovich and the rest of his staff underestimated Greivis Vasquez or if they didn't simply have a scouting report on him, but the truth is that San Antonio allowed Vasquez to have way too much space on pick and rolls and when they realized what was going on, Vasquez had already shot 2-2 FG and dished 6 assists just in the first quarter alone! In fact, he ended the first half with 10 assists!
The most probable scenario was that Popovich didn't expect New Orleans to be so aggressive in pushing up the pace and that Vasquez had so much freedom to decide the plays. In fact I didn't expect that as well and that's why I took San Antonio and the Under! But the truth is that after some adjustments, New Orleans scored just 5 points in the first 7 minutes of the 3rd quarter. San Antonio eventually won the game, but Popovich wasn't able to rotate the team like he wanted to do and today, they will have their first back to back game of the season, with Tim Duncan coming from a big effort last night, as he played for 34 minutes in a game where he was very active with 10-15 FG, 24 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 blocks.
Unlike what happened against the Hornets, San Antonio knows Oklahoma City very well from last season. James Harden may be in Houston now and Kevin Martin in Oklahoma City, but the team's structure is the same from last season, so there won't be any surprises today.
I expect some offensive problems for San Antonio today. Manu Ginobili is doubtful for tonight and so, the Spurs' second unit loses a lot of offensive efficiency without him. Then, we have Tim Duncan on a back to back spot after playing 34 minutes last night. That's a concern because Tim Duncan had clearly worse numbers on back to back games: 46% FG, 14.6 ppg and 7.6 rpg, while he had regular season numbers of 49.3% FG, 15.4 ppg and 9.0 rpg! This isn't indeed a good spot for San Antonio.
But Oklahoma City will also need some time to adjust to James Harden's trade. We can't compare James Harden with Kevin Martin, as not only Harden is a much better player, as also when Harden is on the floor, he is some kind of a Point Forward, who runs the offense and Kevin Martin will never have this ability, as he is a typical SG. The Thunder's second unit will be led by Eric Maynor, who is a good guard, but without the ability of pushing up the ball and decide like Harden used to do.
With this lack of continuity on Oklahoma City's offense between the first and the second unit, I also expect some issues for them against a Spurs defense that coach Popovich promised to improve this season.
If there is a game on this series that looks to have the perfect conditions to be a "low scoring game" is this one, therefore I'll be taking the Under in here.
NOTE: The 204 points line is also available on Pinnacle at -108 / 1.926
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 204 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bodog / Bovada
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