Projected Lines: 48 points | pk line
The public is pounding on both New Orleans and the Over in here, but I believe they couldn't be more wrong about this contest. New Orleans has been a complete shadow of themselves, with Drew Brees being just #23 in the league in completion percentage, #14 in yards per pass attempt and #10 in QB rating. These are poor records for a quarterback who has been breaking records left and right in the league. His eight interceptions in seven games are also a reason for concern and I don't believe his numbers will magically improve tonight against one of the best pass defenses in the league. Even though Philadelphia's pass rush has been a disaster this season, after leading the league in sacks last season, the truth is that the Eagles have been amazing on coverage. They are #2 in the league in completions percentage, #7 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #7 in QB rating allowed and #3 in third downs percentage allowed. Also note that they managed to get these numbers while facing quarterbacks like Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan! The only area where New Orleans' offense has been great this season is in the red zone (#1), however Philadelphia's defense has also been quite good in the red zone (#3 in the league), so even on this area, I believe New Orleans will struggle tonight. The Saints' running game has been practically non-existent this season and now with Darren Sproles also out due to a broken hand, they should be even worse on this area tonight against a fine run defense of the Eagles.
It's clear that Philadelphia has been struggling on offense this season, however they will be facing the worst defense in the league, so they either get some production from their offense tonight or they need to change everything on this unit immediately. Michael Vick has been having a terrible season with a lot of turnovers, however note that the Saints' defense is also quite poor on takeaways (3 interceptions + 3 lost fumbles forced) and I don't believe they will put pressure enough in Michael Vick for him to throw an interception or fumble the football tonight. In fact, I expect Michael Vick to have a couple of big plays tonight in order to save his job while facing the single worst defense in football, who is terrible in both the pass and run defense. But where I expect the Eagles' offense to pound the Saints is on the running game. New Orleans's run defense is horrible (#31 with 5.0 rushing yards allowed per carry) and they are coming from a game where they allowed 225 rushing yards to Denver! Even though I don't expect Philadelphia to repeat these numbers, the truth is that I expect LeSean McCoy to have a big game tonight.
The Eagles are fighting for the season, for their coach's job and for Michael Vick tonight. There's a lot of stake tonight for them. They have the weapons to limit the Saints offense and their offense isn't catastrophic enough to not being able to outplay one of the worst defenses I've ever seen in the NFL. While the Saints are already 2-5 and they seem to be clueless in how to turn their season around, Philadelphia still has a shot to reach the postseason due to their good pass defense and they are a tough matchup to a Saints' offense that is playing much worse than they were in the previous seasons. Therefore, I expect Philadelphia to win this game by limiting the Saints' offense, while having some production of their own offense. I'll be taking both the Eagles and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 439/440 Under 52,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 439 Philadelphia Eagles (+3) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bovada
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