NBA - 507 Dallas Mavericks @ 508 New York Knicks
Projected Line: NY Knicks by 3 points
The Knicks are 3-0 right now and their success is coming from a great perimeter shooting. In fact, 38.8% of their shots are being 3pts attempts, while they are also #6 on pick and roll ball handler with 0.88 PPP (Points Per Possession), #2 in spot ups with 1.25 PPP and #5 on transition plays with 1.25 PPP! But we are indeed in front of a jump shooting team, with almost 40% of their shots being 3pts attempts. They are showing a good ball movement on this early season, but a good coach that can set a good strategy to stop their exterior game can really stop the Knicks offense. That's something that can happen tonight, as they will face Dallas, who is #2 in the league with just 25.0% 3pts allowed to their opponents and #1 on spot up defense with 0.66 PPP allowed.
They may have faced Charlotte, Portland and Toronto on their last three games, but it is still a good indicator about their perimeter defense.
The problem of the Mavericks is really on their frontcourt. They are just #25 on defense against post up plays with 1.01 PPP allowed and #18 in pick and roll roll man with 1.19 PPP allowed. There have also issues on rebounding, as they grabbed 44.95%, 38.93%, 47.90%, 33.88% and 55.99% of the rebounds on their games, while only being able to outrebound Toronto. Looking at the fact that the Knicks have just a volume of 7% on post ups and 6% on pick and roll - roll man on their game, so this represent just 13% of the team's offense and so, I don't expect them to expose Dallas's defensive problems tonight. Besides that, coach Rick Carlisle is an elite coach in making adjustments and so, I believe the Mavericks will be able to defend the Knicks well tonight.
On the other hand, Dallas is being the Darren Collison and O.J. Mayo show on offense. Dallas has similar numbers to the Knicks on offense. They are #7 in pick and roll ball handler and they are #1 in spot up with 1.28 PPP! They are also #3 on cuts. The Knicks' defense is average in defending pick and roll ball handler and of course, with the Knicks using an undersized lineup, they don't also have a lot of ability to outrebound their opponents.
With Dallas having a healthy Chris Kaman and a returning Elton Brand, I expect this game to be a close one. It's a fact that the Knicks offense is playing well, but Dallas is also playing well on offense. I believe the Knicks are getting overrated a bit in here for being 3-0 SU and ATS right now, but they aren't a clearly better team than the Mavericks. Therefore, I expect Dallas to turn this game into a very close one and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Dallas Mavericks (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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