NBA - 505 Philadelphia 76ers @ 506 Boston Celtics
Projected Line: 175 points
I expect this game to be a really low scoring one. Boston keeps struggling on offense, with an excessive amount of perimeter shots. It seems like Kevin Garnett and Jared Sullinger are the only players who really try to score in the paint for the team and the truth is that on their last game against Washington, they attempts 55% of their shots from +16 feet! Now against the good perimeter defense of the 76ers, I expect Boston to have another poor offensive game, as Boston is looking good on offense in terms of spot ups, off screens and transition plays, but they are really struggling on pick and rolls and post ups big time.
With Philadelphia having Jrue Holliday defending Rajon Rondo and Lavon Allen defending Kevin Garnett (Allen did a brilliant job in limiting Garnett in last season's playoffs series), I expect Boston to really struggle offensively, just like they did last season with a lot of turnovers and lack of offensive rebounds, something that obligates them to have huge shooting nights if they want to be effective on offense, something they will highly struggle in doing against a top defense like Philadelphia. In fact, after a good offensive game on their season debut against Miami, where they had an offensive rate of 115.72, Boston had offensive rates of 96.25, 99.99 and 95.60 in their following three games!
On the other hand, Philadelphia keeps using a classic half court offense, while they try to avoid turnovers as much as possible. However, with Andrew Bynum still injured, their offensive rates have been terrible: 90.92, 95.73, 100.25 and 99.56! The 76ers are also shooting a lot from 16-23 feet, the worst possible range to be effective on offense, but they are terrible on it, as they are #30 in the league in 16-23 feet shooting with just 27% FG!
I expect this game to become a slow paced game, with both teams struggling to have any kind of effective offense, as they are both struggling on offense, while they are two of the best defensive teams in the league. The totals line seems to be low, but in fact it should have been even lower, as I see value on the Under in here. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 180 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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