MLB Premium Play 08/19: Washington Nationals @ Chicago Cubs

MLB - 907 Washington Nationals @ 908 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: J. Zimmermann vs J. Samardzija)

Washington lost yesterday against Atlanta, in a game where they scored just one run, while leaving 26 batters on base. They'll start Jordan Zimmermann tonight, who is coming from an outing against the Giants last Wednesday, where he allowed one run in seven innings. He bounced back well after a weird start against Atlanta. Even though his spot isn't great for tonight, with 112 pitches thrown against San Francisco and with just 4 days of rest between games, the Cubs are hitting just .201 BA on their last 10 games against RH pitchers, so Zimmermann should be fine for tonight.

Jeff Samardzija will start for the Cubs in here and he is coming from four earned runs allowed in six innings Tuesday against Cincinnati. His issues with walking batters continue with 11.3% BB% in July and August, something that prevents him from going deep in the game. His fastball speed is also decreasing and Washington has already pounded him this season with five earned runs in five innings. Therefore, I see a clear SP edge for the Nationals tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907 Washington Nationals ML (w/ J. Zimmermann) @ -129 / 1.78 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/12: Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

MLB - 953 Cincinnati Reds @ 954 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: M. Latos vs T. Wood)

Cincinnati will start Mat Latos tonight, who has been having a nice season. He has some issues in facing LH batters (3.89 FIP and 4.11 xFIP), but he isn't terrible against them. However, this was the main reason why he struggled on his last two outings against Cincinnati and Atlanta. Things will be much different tonight at Chicago against the Cubs, as he will be facing just three lefties:

1. David DeJesus (L) CF

2. Junior Lake (R) LF

3. Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B

4. Welington Castillo (R) C

5. Nate Schierholtz (L) RF

6. Starlin Castro (R) SS

7. Donnie Murphy (R) 3B

8. Darwin Barney (R) 2B

9. Travis Wood (R) P

Therefore, I expect Latos to have a good outing, as he has excellent against RH batters this season. On the other side, the Cubs will start Travis Wood, who has been alternating good starts with poor ones. He is coming from a nice start at Philadelphia, with a 7/1 K/BB ratio, but that hasn't been the norm. His advanced stats are much worse than his ERA and that is a clear sign for a regression in the near future. This will be his fourth start this season against the Reds and he is allowing .267 BA and .795 OPS in 105 AB's. The surprise effect is completely gone and the Reds will score a decent number of runs tonight. Therefore, I expect Cincinnati to pick up a comfortable win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 Cincinnati Reds RL -1 (w/ M. Latos) @ -116 / 1.86 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/09: Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 907 Chicago Cubs @ 908 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: C. Rusin vs L. Lynn)

The Cubs will start Chris Rusin tonight, who is coming from allowing four runs in five innings against the Dodgers. After a disastrous first outing at Oakland, Rusin had three decent performances in a row with 3.25, 3.05 and 2.65 FIP! However, his control isn't nothing special, with 5.75 K/9 and 1.86 K/BB. Even though the Cardinals are better on hitting against RH pitchers than LH pitchers like Rusin, this is a great bounce back spot for St Louis and I believe they will put Rusin in some trouble tonight.

Lance Lynn will start for St Louis tonight and he is coming from two runs allowed on eight innings against the Reds last Sunday, while striking out 11 batters! His last three starts were great with 2, 1 and 1 earned runs allowed, while having a nice 24/8 K/BB. Lynn tends to struggle against LH batters, while he absolutely dominates RH batters. With the Cubs having just two LH batters on their lineup tonight, I believe Lynn will have another quality outing tonight. Therefore, I expect an easy win for the Cardinals tonight and so, I'll be taking them on the runline in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 St Louis Cardinals RL -1.5 (w/ L. Lynn) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 08/06: Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies

MLB - 953 Chicago Cubs @ 954 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: E. Jackson vs K. Kendrick)

These two teams are coming from getting swept by the two hottest teams in the league right now in the Dodgers and Atlanta. Edwin Jackson will start for the Cubs tonight and he was dominant last Wednesday, when he allowed just one run in eight innings against Milwaukee. His advanced numbers are very good with 3.45 FIP and 3.60 xFIP, while his ERA is at 4.65. However, he ended July with a 1.83 ERA, 2.66 FIP and 3.17 xFIP! He is coming from six quality outings in a row and so, he is currently a top pitcher. Philadelphia is hitting just .189 BA against RH pitchers on their last 10 games, so I expect Jackson to dominate tonight.

Kyle Kendrick will start for Philadelphia and he allowed seven runs (six earned) in just two innings against San Francisco last Wednesday. Over his last five outings, Kendrick had three poor starts and two "good starts", but where he still had a 1/2 and 2/1 K/BB ratio! Unlike Jackson, Kendrick is struggling right now and the Cubs' lineup is currently full of young guys wanting to show their quality. I believe the Cubs have great value as underdogs tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 Chicago Cubs ML (w/ E. Jackson) @ +106 / 2.06 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 07/29: Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs

MLB - 957 Milwaukee Brewers @ 958 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: K. Lohse vs J. Samardzija)

Jeff Samardzija will start for the Cubs tonight and he is coming from allowing four runs (three earned) against Arizona last Wednesday. His command is currently out of sorts, as his K/BB ratio shows with 5/5, 6/3, 5/2 and 3/5 K/BB on his last four outings! Therefore, I have him on my fade alert list and so, Milwaukee should be able to make some damage against him tonight.

Kyle Lohse is coming from a good outing last Wednesday, where he allowed just one run allowed in seven innings against San Diego. Lohse had a bad start at Arizona, where he allowed five earned runs, but he has since bounced back with 1 and 0 earned runs allowed against Miami and San Diego. I expect Lohse to continue his good outings tonight and with the Brewers' lineup, who regained some life lately, pounding Samardzija, I believe the Brewers will get a rare road win tonight. I'm taking Milwaukee in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 957 Milwaukee Brewers ML (w/ K. Lohse) @ +114 / 2.14 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 07/24: Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MLB - 911 Chicago Cubs @ 912 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: J. Samardzija vs I. Kennedy)

We have a huge pitching edge for the Cubs on this matchup. Jeff Samardzija used the extra rest on the All Star break to make some mechanic tweaks on his pitches and he owned Colorado on his first start of the second half of the season. He allowed just one earned run in 7.1 innings, with six strikeouts and ten groundballs. Arizona had a big offensive night yesterday, but they are a below average offense right now by being #24 in the league over the last 14 days and #26 over the last month.

On the other side, Ian Kennedy is on fade alert right now. I successfully faded him on his last outing at San Francisco and even though he allowed just two earned runs in that game, his command was poor with a 3/3 K/BB ratio. This problem with his command has been recurrent and I believe the Cubs with their young kids on the rotation will pound him today, as the Cubs are hitting .352 wOBA on their last 7 games (#5 in the league)! I believe the Cubs will be competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 911 Chicago Cubs RL +1 (w/ J. Samardzija) @ -127 / 1.79 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/19: Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies

MLB - 961 Chicago Cubs @ 962 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: J. Samardzija vs J. De La Rosa)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Colorado struggled during the last few days prior to the All Star break. Their offensive production collapsed and their offensive rankings over the last 14 and 30 days aren't good. But then again, it's tough to be productive on offense without three key players: Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. The good news is that these three players are now fully recovered and they played already on the last game before the break, where they had 11 hits (.314 BA) against the red hot Ricky Nolasco. The Rockies will face Jeff Samardzija, who is struggling right now. He was a top pitcher in terms of control early in the season, but he is currently with a poor 1.14 ratio in July, while having 5/3, 3/5 and 5/2 K/BB ratios on his last three starts. Now at Colorado, on a hitter-friendly park, against the Rockies on a good spot, I believe Samardzija will heavily struggle tonight.

Jorge De La Rosa will start for Colorado tonight and he has been super consistent lately. De La Rosa improved this season behind a great groundball rate of 47.1% that has been allowing him to have an awesome 6.7% HR/FB rate, something remarkable considering he plays half of his games at Colorado! I expect a solid outing for him tonight against a Cubs team that is just #19 in the league versus LH pitchers this season and who has been hitting a poor .184 against LH pitchers on their last 10 games. With Samardzija struggling and De La Rosa having a nice outing, I believe Colorado will pick up an easy win tonight. So, I'll be taking them in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 962 Colorado Rockies RL -1 (w/ J. De La Rosa) @ -107 / 1.94 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/13: St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

MLB - 953 St Louis Cardinals @ 954 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: L. Lynn vs M. Garza)

Matt Garza is coming from two runs allowed in seven innings against the White Sox last Monday. He has been quite decent lately, but he only faced one good offensive team lately in Oakland. So, even though Garza has been pitching well, he has been having a really favorable schedule. Look at the opposing WRC of his last six opponents: 0.78; 1.07; 0.97; 0.78; 0.94; 0.82 (average = 1.00). Garza will finally face a superior offensive team tonight in the Cardinals and I believe he will finally get exposed on this contest.

On the other hand, Lance Lynn will start for the Cardinals and he is coming from two earned runs allowed in seven innings last Sunday against the Marlins. Lynn struggled a few weeks ago, but he has since bounced back with two good starts. He had a 0.90 FIP and 1.84 xFIP against the Angels, even though he allowed five runs, while on his last outing against Miami, he had once again great advanced stats with 1.92 FIP and 2.76 xFIP. Lynn was great in two games against the Cubs earlier on the season, with 6/2 and 8/1 K/BB ratios in those outings. I give a clear edge to St Louis on offense and bullpen, while the SP have a similar level in my opinion. So, I see great value on the Cardinals tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ L. Lynn) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 07/09: Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago Cubs

MLB - 979 Los Angeles Angels @ 980 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: J. Blanton vs T. Wood)

I'll be fading Travis Wood tonight. Winds will be blowing out to center field at 5-10mph and with the humidity at 70-80%'s, the ball will be flying tonight, something that will benefit the offenses. Wood has been pitching well, but there is a considerable gap between his 2.69 ERA and his advanced numbers: 3.52 FIP + 4.38 xFIP! This is due to his incredibly low HR/FB rate of just 5.7%! This is tremendous as Wood is an extreme flyball pitcher (46% FB%) and so, he had a lot of luck to have pitched at Oakland and at Seattle on his last two outings: pitcher-friendly parks, where he had 8 flyballs at Oakland and 11 flyballs at Seattle! Today on a hitter-friendly park like the Wrigley Field and with the weather helping the batters, I expect the red hot Angels to finally expose Wood tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the LA Angels to go Over on their team total tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 979 Los Angeles Angels Team Total Over 4,5 @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/05: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

MLB - 951 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 952 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: F. Liriano vs J. Samardzija)

The Pirates finally lost a series against Philadelphia, including a loss yesterday where they were dominated by Cole Hamels! On the other side, the Cubs had to make a big trip from Oakland to Chicago overnight, even though they barely played yesterday, as they were simply terrible on offense.

Today's game should be great, as we have two excellent pitchers on the mount! Pittsburgh will start Francisco Liriano and he is coming from one run allowed over six innings against Milwaukee last Saturday. Liriano struggled against San Francisco, but then bounced back with three quality outings in a row, including two legit great starts on his last two outings. Liriano faced just one top ranked offense on his last six games (LA Angels), but he dominated them. The Cubs' lineup has been above average over the last two weeks, but they were a disaster yesterday and they won't have David DeJesus, Luis Valbuena and Nate Schierholtz in the lineup today. Liriano has already faced the Cubs twice this season and he was incredible in both outings with no earned runs allowed in seven innings on each start. I expect the same to happen today.

On the other side, the Cubs will start Jeff Samardzija today, who is coming from a win at Seattle, on his third quality outing in a row as well. Just like Liriano, Samardzija has been in great form lately, even though he hasn't been facing a lot of tough opposition lately. This will be Samardzija's fourth game against the Pirates this season and he dominated in the first two games played at Pittsburgh, but then struggled on a third game at home with four earned runs allowed in six innings. However, Pittsburgh's offense struggled against the Phillies and if Samardzija keeps playing at the level he has been showing as of late, he should be able to have a good outing today. I believe this game will be a pure pitchers-duel with both Liriano and Samardzija dominating and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 951/952 Under 7.5 (w/ F. Liriano & J. Samardzija) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Play 07/04: Chicago Cubs @ Oakland Athletics

Chicago Cubs  at Oakland

MLB - 927 Chicago Cubs @ 928 Oakland Athletics (Starting Pitchers: T. Wood vs D. Straily) Oakland will start Dan Straily today due to Jarrod Parker's hamstring injury. Straily struggled in his last start Friday for Triple-A Sacramento, where he allowed six runs (two earned). In the majors, Straily had already struggled at Texas and at Seattle, with six earned runs allowed in 4.2 innings against the Rangers and two earned runs against the Mariners, but with just 3.1 innings played (23.4 P/IP). The worst part for Straily was that both Texas and Seattle were struggling offensively at the time! It seems clearly that Straily is struggling right now and therefore, the Cubs should have a good number of opportunities to pound him today, as they are hitting well on this road trip by being the #11 ranked offense in the league over the last two weeks. Travis Wood will be the Cubs' SP for today and he is coming from his sixth consecutive quality start, where he allowed two runs in 6.1 innings against the Mariners last Friday. Wood has a great 2.85 Season ERA, but with 3.59 FIP and 4.40 xFIP, I believe a regression will happen sooner or later. Wood looked excellent against the Cardinals, while he struggled a bit against subpar offenses in three of his last four outings. Oakland is #4 in the league in hitting versus LH pitchers, therefore I expect the A's to be able to put Wood in some trouble today. I believe today's game will be a high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 927/928 Over 8 (w/ T. Wood & D. Straily) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 06/29: Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners

MLB - 979 Chicago Cubs @ 980 Seattle Mariners

(Starting Pitchers: J. Samardzija vs A. Harang)

Seattle will start Aaron Harang tonight, who is being super inconsistent. He is coming from a start against Oakland, where he was only able to pitch for five innings, but where he limited damage with three runs allowed. Before that, he had allowed four runs (one earned) at LA against the Angels, even though he allowed eleven hits in that game! On the previous game, he had dominated Houston with a 10/0 K/BB ratio! Still, his lack of consistency makes him good fade material when he is involved on a pitchers-duel against a talented SP like Jeff Samardzija. 

Samardzija wasn't sharp against Houston, but a letdown was inevitable given his workload on his previous start, where he threw 112 pitchers or more on his previous four starts! Samardzija threw "just" 92 pitches against the Astros and with five days of rest between games, he will be ready to roll tonight. With both offenses being similar according to my rankings and with the Cubs having a clear SP edge in here, I believe the Cubs will pick up a good road team tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 979 Chicago Cubs ML (w/ J. Samardzija) @ -101 / 1.99 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/18: Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 907 Chicago Cubs @ 908 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: J. Samardzija vs A. Wainwright)

The Cubs showed yesterday that their offense is yesterday poor and not even a nice outing by Travis Wood allowed the Cubs to win yesterday's game. The lack of run support isn't a surprise for Jeff Samardzija, as even though he has a 3.46 ERA this season, his record is just 3-7! He is coming from his worst start of the season against Cincinnati, but curiously he didn't lose that decision, even though he allowed five runs and ten hits on six innings, for a season high 116 pitches! This won't be a nice spot for him, as it will be his second straight start with just four days of rest between games and he is also coming from high pitch count games with 112 and 116 pitches! Samardzija has one of the best K/9 ratios in the league with 10.29, but the Cardinals are one of the teams in the league that gets strike out the least with just 18.0% K% (#6). Therefore, I believe St Louis will put Samardzija in trouble today.

Adam Wainwright will start for the Cardinals and he is simply the best pitcher of the league this season with an incredible 1.78 FIP! Unlike Samardzija, Wainwright's last outing was on an early game where he threw just 95 pitches and having in account the Cubs' offensive struggles (#27 on OPS over the last 14 days), I believe Wainwright will comfortable dominating another opponent tonight. The Cardinals have a SP edge, a better offense and their SP has also a better spot for tonight, so I expect an easy win for them tonight and therefore, I'll be taking the Cardinals on the runline in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 St Louis Cardinals RL -1.5 (w/ A. Wainwright) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 05/24: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

MLB - 955 Chicago Cubs @ 956 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: S. Feldman vs B. Arroyo)

Cincinnati had a day off after having crushed the Mets on the road. On the other hand, the Cubs got swept at Pittsburgh, including a loss yesterday on an early game. They will start Scott Feldman today, who has been impressive in May, including a great start against the Mets, where he shutdown them for 6.2 innings for his fifth quality start in a row. Feldman is 3-0 in May and he has allowed just three runs and 17 hits on his last starts, while having a great 27/6 K/BB ratio as well! Even his advanced numbers don't lie: 1.69, 2.54, 2.62 and 3.60 FIP on these four outings! He has been great on throwing cutters and curveballs, two areas where the Reds' offense is #20 and #10 on the league. This will be his first start against Cincinnati and only Choo, Hannahan and Izturis have previous at bats against him, with a combined of 6-39 .154 BA! This is definitely a great spot for Feldman to continue his dominant May!

On the other hand, the Reds will start Brandon Arroyo tonight, who didn't allow a single run on his last two outings, while having 6/2 and 5/1 K/BB ratios! He has been pitching well against RH hitters as usual, with a 2.65 FIP and 3.43 xFIP, while he has been pounded by LH batters with his FIP and xFIP close to 5.00! Having in account that his last two outings where he was impressive were against Milwaukee (full of righties) and Philadelphia (awful hitting team), Arroyo simply took advantage of nice matchups to impress. The Cubs are hitting .292 BA on his last 10 games against RH pitchers and they are #16 in the league versus RH pitchers with a .727 OPS! Not bad at all! Considering how Feldman has a great spot and how Arroyo is prone to some struggles, I see the Cubs having a great value at the current odds and so, I'll be taking them in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955 Chicago Cubs ML (w/ S. Feldman) @ +143 / 2.43 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 04/22: Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds

MLB - 955 Chicago Cubs @ 956 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: T. Wood vs M. Leake)

Travis Wood is currently with a 1.83 ERA, but he is being super overrated for tonight's game. He has allowed at least two walks in each outing and with him being a flyball pitcher with a FB% rate of +42% in every season of his career so far, it's weird that he is yet to allow a single homerun this season. He will have a massive test tonight on a hitters park like Cincinnati's and against the team whose offense is #1 in the league against LH pitchers with an impressive .901 OPS! Besides that, Cincinnati's batters are hitting .302 BA and .938 OPS against Wood!

On the other side, I also expect the Cubs's offense to have a good matchup against Mike Leake, as the Cubs's current roster is batting .327 BA and .839 OPS against Leake! Therefore, I see this game being a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 955/956 Over 8,5 (w/ T. Wood & M. Leake) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 04/01: Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB - 905 Chicago Cubs @ 906 Pittsburgh Pirates
(Starting Pitchers: J. Samardzija vs A. Burnett)

I believe we have nice value on the Cubs as road underdogs today. The Pirates will send their ace Burnett to the mount today, who is coming from his best season since he signed a mega deal with the NY Yankees a few seasons ago. However, Burnett has said recently that he might retire by the end of this season, something that makes me believe that he won't be focused at this start of the season. He pitched for just 11 innings during Spring Training and without great results. Of course it was just the preseason, but I really don't like his spot for today's game.

Nobody likes the Cubs and once again nobody expects them to be decent this season. However, in my opinion, they are one of the most underrated teams in the league right now. But what I really like today is Samardzija's matchup against the Pirates's offense. He had a breakout season last year with an elite 180/56 K/BB ratio in 174.1 innings! He absolutely dominated the Pirates twice last season with a 1.06 ERA and 14/2 K/BB ratio, while the Pirates's batters had a ridiculous 0.091 BA against him! The good news for the Cubs is that Samardzija enjoyed a pretty good Spring Training, while showing some impeccable control: 14/0 K/BB ratio! Therefore, I see value on the Cubs as a road underdog today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 Chicago Cubs ML (w/ J. Samardzija) @ +118 / 2.18 on Bovada