Showing posts with label St Louis Cardinals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label St Louis Cardinals. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/26: Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 951 Cincinnati Reds @ 952 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: M. Leake vs T. Lyons)

Cincinnati will start Mike Leake tonight, who has been poor lately. He has a 6.26 ERA on his last four starts, while allowing four or more runs in three of these outings. Leake is having an inevitable regression, as his ERA wasn't supported by the advanced numbers. He allowed four, four and seven earned runs in three of his last four games, while his only good start being against San Diego, whose offense struggles a lot against RH pitchers. With a 6.26 ERA, 4.51 FIP and 4.25 xFIP in August, I believe the Cardinals will pound him tonight.

On the other side, Tyler Lyons will start for the Cardinals and he has a 5.09 ERA in seven starts this season. His last outing was last Tuesday at Milwaukee, where he pitched for two innings. He has already faced Cincinnati this season and he heavily struggled with a 6.75 ERA, 7.72 FIP and 4.40 xFIP! He isn't impressing me one bit and I believe the Reds will put in trouble once again tonight. Therefore, I believe both pitchers will struggle in here and so, I'll be taking the Over.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 951/952 Over 9 (w/ M. Leake & T. Lyons) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

Saturday, August 24, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/23: Atlanta Braves @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 907 Atlanta Braves @ 908 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: K. Medlen vs A. Wainwright)

St Louis will start Adam Wainwright tonight and he is coming from a couple of series where he wasn't fully dominant: @Atlanta; @Pittsburgh; vs LA Dodgers; vs Pittsburgh. These are four playoff contenders. Nevertheless, he had a good command against Pittsburgh, but he allowed two home runs. On his start at Atlanta, he allowed three earned runs in seven innings, but with an excellent 8/1 K/BB ratio. His last start was excellent with one earned run allowed and a 11/1 K/BB, so I expect him to have a good outing tonight as usual.

Kris Medlen will start for Atlanta tonight, who his start was push back to tonight, as Saturday's extra-inning game forced him into relief. He has already faced the Cardinals this season and he allowed two earned runs in six innings, while having a 4/1 K/BB ratio. However, it's important to note that Medlen's last three starts were against poor teams (Philadelphia x2 and Washington), with him being much better at home (3.04 ERA, 3.14 FIP and 3.60 xFIP) than on the road (4.38 ERA, 4.67 FIP and 4.40 xFIP)! Also Medlen's best pitch is the change up and the Cardinals are hitting against them very well lately by being #3 in the league over the last 30 days and #1 over the last 14 days! Therefore, I see a clear SP edge for St Louis tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ A. Wainwright) @ -145 / 1.69 on 5Dimes

Thursday, August 15, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/14: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 959 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 960 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: F. Liriano vs S. Miller)

Francisco Liriano will start for Pittsburgh tonight and he is coming from getting pounded at Colorado. He was giving sings that he was about to regress with five walks on his previous start and that indeed happened against the Rockies. Liriano has walked at least two batters in five of his last seven starts! He dominated the Cardinals early on the season in the only game where he faced St Louis this season, but things will be now different, as he is on much worse form right now.

St Louis will start Shelby Miller, who will play tonight, after an elbow scare on his last outing. He will have two clear edges in tonight's game. Miller is great at home with 2.57 FIP and 2.90 xFIP this season, while he is also great against RH batters with 2.84 FIP and 3.00 xFIP. This is excellent for him, as Pittsburgh's lineup is full of righties. With Miller having a nice matchup and with Liriano struggling right now, I believe the Cardinals will take advantage of this SP edge to pick up a comfortable win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 960 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ S. Miller) @ -122 / 1.82 on 5Dimes

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/13: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 907 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 908 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: C. Morton vs A. Wainwright)

A couple of weeks ago, St Louis got pounded at Pittsburgh, after having gotten pounded at Atlanta as well. Now, it's Pittsburgh that is coming from getting swept at Colorado and now I believe the Pirates will heavily struggle on this series at St Louis. For tonight's game, the Cardinals will have a clear SP with Adam Wainwright on the mount. His last three starts were all losses for Wainwright, but he pitched very well with 2.47, 3.62 and 3.05 FIP! He was unlucky that he faced some of the hottest teams in the league at the time, as he played at Atlanta, then at Pittsburgh and finally against the red hot Dodgers. He has 7 days of rest for tonight's game and I believe he will dominate, as he has a 1.96 ERA when he has six or more days of rest this season! This is a good spot for him tonight against the Pirates and I expect him to dominate.

The Pirates will start Charlie Morton tonight, who is coming from a nice start against Miami. He had a nice matchup against the terrible Marlins' offense that is dead last on hitting versus RH pitchers this season and also in hitting against grounders! He will have a much tougher matchup tonight, as Morton is allowing .275 BA this season and St Louis is a top hitting team in putting players on base. So, no wonder that his last start against the Cardinals ended with five earned runs allowed in six innings. St Louis will have a huge SP edge tonight and with the Pirates lacking confident after watching their aces getting pounded at Colorado, I believe the Cardinals will pick up an easy win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 St Louis Cardinals RL -1 (w/ A. Wainwright) @ -127 / 1.79 on 5Dimes

Saturday, August 10, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/09: Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 907 Chicago Cubs @ 908 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: C. Rusin vs L. Lynn)

The Cubs will start Chris Rusin tonight, who is coming from allowing four runs in five innings against the Dodgers. After a disastrous first outing at Oakland, Rusin had three decent performances in a row with 3.25, 3.05 and 2.65 FIP! However, his control isn't nothing special, with 5.75 K/9 and 1.86 K/BB. Even though the Cardinals are better on hitting against RH pitchers than LH pitchers like Rusin, this is a great bounce back spot for St Louis and I believe they will put Rusin in some trouble tonight.

Lance Lynn will start for St Louis tonight and he is coming from two runs allowed on eight innings against the Reds last Sunday, while striking out 11 batters! His last three starts were great with 2, 1 and 1 earned runs allowed, while having a nice 24/8 K/BB. Lynn tends to struggle against LH batters, while he absolutely dominates RH batters. With the Cubs having just two LH batters on their lineup tonight, I believe Lynn will have another quality outing tonight. Therefore, I expect an easy win for the Cardinals tonight and so, I'll be taking them on the runline in here.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 St Louis Cardinals RL -1.5 (w/ L. Lynn) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

Thursday, August 8, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/07: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 909 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 910 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: R. Nolasco vs S. Miller)

The Dodgers will start Ricky Nolasco tonight, who is coming from three earned runs against the Cubs last Thursday. This was a lucky outing for him, as the three runs allowed came from three single home runs! Nolasco allowed 3, 2, 2 and 3 earned runs on his last four starts, while having quite high P/IP ratios of 16.4, 17.3, 16.9 and 16.4! His FIP has been constantly higher than his ERA and so, I expect him to struggle tonight against the Cardinals, who are a top hitting team against RH pitchers!

Shelby Miller will start for St Louis tonight and he has been starting the second half of the season quite well. He pitched well at Atlanta and at Cincinnati, but it's at home where he has been amazing with a 1.74 ERA, 2.57 FIP and 2.90 xFIP! With the Dodgers not having Hanley Ramirez and A.J. Ellis in the starting lineup tonight, Miller's task will be easier and I expect him to have another good home outing tonight, leading his team to a comfortable win tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Cardinals in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 910 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ S. Miller) @ -142 / 1.70 on Bovada

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/05: Los Angeles Dodgers @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 903 Los Angeles Dodgers @ 904 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: Z. Greinke vs A. Wainwright)

The Dodgers will be trying to beat a record tonight, as they will be looking for their 15th road win in a row, which would be the longest road streak since the 1957 Cincinnati Reds. But this won't be easy at all for them. Yasiel Puig is banged up with a wrist injury, while Hanley Ramirez is even doubtful for tonight with a shoulder injury. The Dodgers will start Zack Greinke tonight, who will have a tough task tonight, as the Cardinals have woken up on their weekend series at Cincinnati, having scored 13, 13 and 15 runs in three of their last four games! Greinke is coming from four runs allowed in seven innings last Thursday against the Reds. He is currently posting a career-worst 7.02 K/9 and 2.97 BB/9 and he struggled in the only start that he had against a good team on his last six outings, that outing against the Reds last Thursday. Now with St Louis being red hot, I expect them to pound Greinke tonight.

On the other side, the Cardinals will start Adam Wainwright, who is coming from allowing four earned runs in seven innings against Pittsburgh last Wednesday. Even though the Cardinals lost in Wainwright's last two starts, he pitched well in both outings, with a 3.61 and 3.04 FIP. It's also important to note that he played on the road at Pittsburgh and at Atlanta, two top teams who are especially tough when they played at home! Wainwright will now face the Dodgers in the middle of a streak, but these wins have been happening due to great pitching, as the offense has been decent, but not very impressive. Now with Greinke struggling against the red hot Cardinals and with Wainwright having a quality outing, I can only expect the Cardinals to win tonight's game.
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Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 904 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ A. Wainwright) @ -141 / 1.71 on Bovada

Sunday, August 4, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/04: St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

MLB - 951 St Louis Cardinals @ 952 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: L. Lynn vs M. Leake)

Mike Leake is starting today for Cincinnati and even though he has a 2.59 ERA, the truth is that his advanced numbers are much worse with 3.98 FIP, 3.99 xFIP and 4.20 SIERA! Leake is coming from another outing where he got away of it without any issues, as he didn't allow a single run in seven innings in San Diego last Monday. He keeps being one of the luckiest pitchers in the league this season, but luck might change today against a good hitting team like the Cardinals. Prior to the outing at San Diego, Leake performed a miracle at San Francisco, where he allowed just one run in six innings, even though he allowed 12 hits! Now against a Cardinals roster that is hitting .306 BA and .757 OPS against him in 108 AB's, I believe Leake will finally start regressing today.

St Louis will start Lance Lynn, who allowed one run on three hits on his last outing (six innings) last Tuesday against the Pirates. Lynn struggled a bit in June and July, but he has since bounced back with two excellent outings against Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals are 3-0 against Cincinnati this season with Lynn in the mount, as he is simply amazing versus RH batters with 2.11 FIP and 2.80 xFIP! Cincinnati's lineup has just three LH batters (Bruce, Votto, Choo), so I expect Lynn to have another good outing today and help his team in today's game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Cardinals in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 951 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ L. Lynn) @ +124 / 2.24 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 08/03: St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

MLB - 909 St Louis Cardinals @ 910 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: J. Westbrook vs T. Cingrani)

St Louis will start Jake Westbrook tonight, who allowed four runs in five innings against Pittsburgh last Monday. Even though he has a 2.95 season ERA, the truth is that Westbrook isn't being that impressive at all, as his advanced numbers are quite poor with 4.01 FIP, 4.58 xFIP and 4.81 SIERA! He'll be regressing a lot soon, especially when he keeps having more walks than strikeouts with a K/BB ratio of 0.97! He had a complete game shutout against Cincinnati on his second start of the season, so I believe the Reds will want to get revenge out of that tonight, especially after their humiliating blowout loss yesterday.

On the other hand, Tony Cingrani is coming from one of the best starts that someone had this season by completing dominating the Dodgers on the road, with a 0.00 ERA, 0.33 FIP and 1.33 xFIP! He is obviously in great form right now and he is yet to face the Cardinals, so he will also have the surprise effect helping him tonight. I believe Cincinnati will have a clear SP edge in tonight's matchup, while they will be also looking to bounce back after their blowout loss last night, so I believe the Reds will have a comfortable win tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Reds in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 910 Cincinnati Reds RL -1 (w/ T. Cingrani) @ -116 / 1.86 on 5Dimes

Saturday, August 3, 2013

MLB Premium Play 08/02: St Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

MLB - 957 St Louis Cardinals @ 958 Cincinnati Reds

(Starting Pitchers: S. Miller vs B. Arroyo)

Both teams have been poor as of late, but they are actually both coming from a win on their last game. Shelby Miller will start for the Cardinals tonight and he is in complete decline right now. He allowed three runs (two earned) in 5.2 innings against Atlanta last Sunday and even though he had a 2.78 ERA in July, the truth is that his advanced numbers told another story with 4.06 FIP and 4.10 xFIP, while also doubling his BB% with 10.5%! No wonder he can't go deep on his starts anymore!

On the other hand, Bronson Arroyo will start for the Reds tonight and I believe he will have a nice spot in here. St Louis is coming from five games in four days at Pittsburgh and so, this won't be a nice spot for them, as they had to travel to Cincinnati, while the Reds had an off day yesterday. Arroyo has been decent on his last five starts, where he hasn't allowed more than 5 earned runs in any of these outings, even though he faced tough opponents like the Dodgers, Atlanta or Seattle. He doesn't have great career numbers against St Louis, but he allowed just two earned runs on each of his starts against St Louis. I see Cincinnati having a nice spot + SP edge for tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 958 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/ B. Arroyo) @ -107 / 1.93 on Bovada

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/30: St Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB - 905 St Louis Cardinals @ 906 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: T. Lyons vs B. Cumpton)

Tyler Lyons will start for the Cardinals tonight and his last four starts in the Majors were terrible with 4, 6, 4 and 4 earned runs allowed. However, he has been terrific since his demotion to Triple-A, with a 1.33 ERA in 40.2 innings. Therefore, I believe he will do a good job tonight. On the other hand, Brandon Cumpton was recalled to the Pirates to play tonight's second game of a doubleheader, but he has been poor in Triple-A Indianapolis this season with a 4-7 record with a 3.69 ERA. Therefore, I believe St Louis will have a SP edge in here, while both offenses and bullpens are similar. So, I see good value in taking the Cardinals in tonight's contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ T. Lyons) @ -116 / 1.86 on 5Dimes

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/29: St Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MLB - 951 St Louis Cardinals @ 952 Pittsburgh Pirates

(Starting Pitchers: J. Westbrook vs F. Liriano)

St Louis was swept by Atlanta this weekend and yesterday was the fourth game in a row where St Louis had a subpar offensive game with .172, .129, .069 and .250 BA! This is especially worrying for tonight, as Pittsburgh will have a tremendous SP edge on this contest. Francisco Liriano will start for Pittsburgh tonight and after a poor start at Cincinnati, where he allowed five earned runs, he crushed Washington after that with no runs allowed in 7.2 innings. His strikeout punch will also be a big weapon against the struggling Cardinals' lineup.

Jake Westbrook will start for St Louis in here and he has been very far from convincing me lately. He won a decision against Philadelphia, but his command has been terrible with a combined of 5/7 K/BB over his last three starts. His awful season numbers of 3.32 K/9 and 0.91 K/BB don't convince anyone and so, I don't believe that his 2.88 ERA will resist for a lot more time, especially when he has a 4.15 FIP and 4.65 xFIP! Westbrook is a ground ball guy, but Pittsburgh's offense is #9 in the league on grounders, so I believe they should pound Westbrook tonight. Pittsburgh's SP edge in here should be more than enough for them to pick up a comfortable win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 952 Pittsburgh Pirates ML (w/ F. Liriano) @ -145 / 1.69 on 5Dimes

Monday, July 29, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/28: St Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves

MLB - 905 St Louis Cardinals @ 906 Atlanta Braves

(Starting Pitchers: S. Miller vs K. Medlen)

St Louis will start Shelby Miller tonight, who is coming from six scoreless innings against Philadelphia last Tuesday. It was clear that Miller ended the first half of the season without any gas left in the tank (allowing 3, 2, 5 and 4 earned runs on his last four games prior to the break), but with 12 days of rest between games, he was able to bounce back and get back into his best form with a total domination against Philadelphia. He will have a good spot for tonight, he is an elite SP and his 9.63 K/9 ratio make him a tough matchup for Atlanta's lineup who is the #3 worst team in the league on K% with 22.5% K%!

Kris Medlen will start for Atlanta and he is coming from four runs allowed against the Mets last Tuesday. It's clear that Medlen has been struggling this season and if it wasn't for Hudson's season-ending injury and Medlen would probably be out of the rotation soon with Brandon Beachy ready to return. Over his last 27.2 innings, Medlen has posted a 6.51 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and a strikeout rate of just 14.7%! He seems to be lacking confidence right now and so, I expect him to struggle against the Cardinals tonight. St Louis will be looking to bounce back tonight after losing the first two games of this series and with such SP edge for tonight's game, I expect them to do exactly that. Therefore, I'll be taking the Cardinals in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ S. Miller) @ -111 / 1.90 on 5Dimes

Sunday, July 14, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/13: St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

MLB - 953 St Louis Cardinals @ 954 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: L. Lynn vs M. Garza)

Matt Garza is coming from two runs allowed in seven innings against the White Sox last Monday. He has been quite decent lately, but he only faced one good offensive team lately in Oakland. So, even though Garza has been pitching well, he has been having a really favorable schedule. Look at the opposing WRC of his last six opponents: 0.78; 1.07; 0.97; 0.78; 0.94; 0.82 (average = 1.00). Garza will finally face a superior offensive team tonight in the Cardinals and I believe he will finally get exposed on this contest.

On the other hand, Lance Lynn will start for the Cardinals and he is coming from two earned runs allowed in seven innings last Sunday against the Marlins. Lynn struggled a few weeks ago, but he has since bounced back with two good starts. He had a 0.90 FIP and 1.84 xFIP against the Angels, even though he allowed five runs, while on his last outing against Miami, he had once again great advanced stats with 1.92 FIP and 2.76 xFIP. Lynn was great in two games against the Cubs earlier on the season, with 6/2 and 8/1 K/BB ratios in those outings. I give a clear edge to St Louis on offense and bullpen, while the SP have a similar level in my opinion. So, I see great value on the Cardinals tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ L. Lynn) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Saturday, July 13, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/12: Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 901 St Louis Cardinals @ 902 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: J. Kelly vs C. Villanueva)

The Cubs are 5-1 on their last six games and they have been playing well. Yesterday Edwin Jackson made a shutout against the Cardinals, something rare to do against St Louis. For today's game, we have two pitchers that haven't been starting pitchers this season. Jim Kelly will start for the Cardinals and he is coming from a spot start against Miami last Saturday, where he didn't impress with four earned runs allowed in six innings. His advanced numbers were especially poor with 7.07 FIP and 4.38 xFIP! Even coming from the bullpen, Kelly hasn't been anything special this season with 4.15 ERA, 4.64 FIP and 3.90 xFIP! Therefore, I expect the Cubs to put him in trouble today.

Carlos Villanueva will start for the Cubs today and he is coming from one earned run allowed on four innings against Pittsburgh last Sunday. Villanueva was on the bullpen, but he stole Scott Feldman's spot in the rotation due to some decent pitching from him. His first start of the season against the Pirates was excellent with 2.25 ERA, 1.32 FIP and 2.02 xFIP! As he wasn't used to having the normal SP workload, he was limited to just 69 pitches against Pittsburgh. When he was coming from the bullpen, Villanueva was still quite decent with 3.63 ERA, 3.86 FIP and 3.79 xFIP! It's clear to me that the Cubs will then have a clear SP edge for today, while their offense has been showing good confident as of late as well. Therefore, the Cubs have great value today as home underdogs and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 902 Chicago Cubs ML (w/ C. Villanueva) @ +110 / 2.10 on Bovada

Saturday, July 6, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/05: Miami Marlins @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 959 Miami Marlins @ 960 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: J. Turner vs J. Westbrook)

Miami is now 8-2 on their last 10 games! They are playing with a lot of confidence, while showing good pitching and offense! Miami's offense is #15 over the last 7 days and #14 over the last 14 days, something that contrasts a lot with their season stats, where they are dead last on offense! The Marlins' lineup will face Jake Westbrook tonight, who has been struggling a lot since coming back from the DL. In four starts, Westbrook allowed 6, 4, 0 and 3 earned runs, but worse than that is his command with a combined of 8/8 K/BB! The first of those starts was at Miami, where he allowed three runs in five innings, while having poor advanced numbers: 4.27 FIP and 4.55 xFIP! Westbrook isn't at his best at all right now and therefore, the "red hot" Marlins should be able to put him in trouble tonight.

On the other side, Jacob Turner will start for Miami and he is coming from a complete game against San Diego! His excellent groundball rate allows him to be able to go deep in the games without much trouble and his advanced numbers are confirming that he is really in great form right now with 2.93 FIP and 3.86 xFIP since he joined the Majors in May 31! His 0.22 HR/9 right now is simply amazing and I expect him to continue his nice run with a positive outing against the Cardinals tonight. I believe Miami will be underrated until the end of the season and when we have decent pitching from them like in tonight's game, I believe they should be able to remain competitive against almost everybody. Therefore, I'll be taking the Marlins tonight on the runline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 959 Miami Marlins RL +1.5 (w/ J. Turner) @ -140 / 1.71 on 5 Dimes

Friday, July 5, 2013

MLB Premium Play 07/04: St Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels

MLB - 929 St Louis Cardinals @ 930 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: A. Wainwright vs J. Blanton)

The Cardinals absolutely crushed Jerome Williams yesterday. This will be the third game of this series and for now, the first two games ended with one sided wins. The Angels will start Joe Blanton and he is coming from allowing two runs against the Astros in seven innings. His season record is poor (2-10 and a 5.07 ERA), but he has been great as of late with five runs allowed on his last 21 innings! In fact, Blanton is one of the most underrated pitchers in the league this season, as his advanced stats (4.30 FIP and 3.65 xFIP) are much better than his ERA and they are really good! His main problem is the 15.3% HR/FB rate, while his worst outing of his last seven games was at Boston, where he allowed three home runs. However, on a pitcher-friendly park, he is much better with a 0.90 HR/9 at home, while he has a 2.27 HR/9 on the road! This is why he has a 3.26 FIP at home and so, I believe he will have a good performance tonight against the Cardinals, especially as St Louis is just #23 in the league on ISO with .140, so they are unlikely to be able to punish Blanton with home runs.

Adam Wainwright will start for St Louis and he is coming from a complete game at Oakland, where he allowed just one run. After a poor 1st inning against the Cubs at home, he dominated Texas (one earned run allowed in 6.2 innings) and now Oakland (one earned run allowed in a complete game). Of course, his advanced stats were also great on these two outings with 1.95 and 1.71 FIP! Wainwright is a top pitcher in the league and I expect him to show that tonight by limiting one of the best offenses in the league. I see this game being a low scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 929/930 Under 8 (w/ A. Wainwright & J. Blanton) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Monday, July 1, 2013

MLB Premium Play 06/30: St Louis Cardinals @ Oakland Athletics

MLB - 927 St Louis Cardinals @ 928 Oakland Athletics

(Starting Pitchers: J. Westbrook vs T. Milone)

We have two struggling pitchers in the mount today, something that will happen for the first time on this series. After Colon vs Miller and Wainwright vs Parker, we will have a matchup between Westbrook and Milone. Jake Westbrook has already had three starts since coming back from the DL, with all of them being against subpar offensive teams: Houston, the Cubs and Miami. Still, he struggled with poor K/BB ratios and allowed four and three runs on the two road starts. Oakland is hitting well right now and they will surely put Westbrook in trouble today.

The Athletics will start Tommy Milone, who has been struggling with control lately. He couldn't go past the six innings on his last three starts, with a combined 7/8 K/BB! St Louis is one of the teams with the lowest K%, so they will put Milone working hard today on the tough pitch counts and as the A's used their bullpen a lot yesterday, this is a nice spot for the Cardinals to have another great offensive game today. Therefore, I see this game being a high scoring contest and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 927/928 Over 8,5 (w/ J. Westbrook & T. Milone) @ -125 / 1.80 on Betonline

Saturday, June 22, 2013

MLB Premium Play 06/21: Texas Rangers @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 977 Texas Rangers @ 978 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: D. Holland vs T. Lyons)

This is the first game between these two teams since the 2011 World Series, so it's normal that Texas is coming fired up for the first game of the series. They are coming from a 3-1 series win over Oakland that has allowed them to come closer from the top of the AL West, so they are very confident right now as well. I believe the Rangers will have a clear SP edge tonight. Tyler Lyons will start for the Cardinals and he hasn't been able to surprise his opponents anymore, with 6, 4 and 4 runs allowed on his last three outings, including a very problematic last game against the lowly Marlins. 

On the other hand, Derek Holland will start for Texas and he will benefit from the fact that St Louis's lineup is far from the same production this season against LH pitchers that they have been having against RH pitchers! The Cardinals are just #23 in the league versus LH pitchers this season with just .669 OPS! Holland is coming from a poor outing at home against Toronto, where his flyball style was punished by Toronto's powerful lineup who is currently red hot and had two homeruns in that game. Before that, Holland had also struggled at Cleveland, but the Indians are #3 in the league versus LH pitchers this season with .763 OPS, so their last two outings were tough matchups for him, while tonight's matchup should be fairly easier for him.

Considering the fact that Lyons is currently struggling and that Holland has a nice matchup tonight, I believe Texas will take advantage of this considerable SP edge to pick up a very important road win for their ego tonight. I'm taking the Rangers tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 977 Texas Rangers ML (w/ D. Holland) @ -103 / 1.97 on Bovada

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

MLB Premium Play 06/18: Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals

MLB - 907 Chicago Cubs @ 908 St Louis Cardinals

(Starting Pitchers: J. Samardzija vs A. Wainwright)

The Cubs showed yesterday that their offense is yesterday poor and not even a nice outing by Travis Wood allowed the Cubs to win yesterday's game. The lack of run support isn't a surprise for Jeff Samardzija, as even though he has a 3.46 ERA this season, his record is just 3-7! He is coming from his worst start of the season against Cincinnati, but curiously he didn't lose that decision, even though he allowed five runs and ten hits on six innings, for a season high 116 pitches! This won't be a nice spot for him, as it will be his second straight start with just four days of rest between games and he is also coming from high pitch count games with 112 and 116 pitches! Samardzija has one of the best K/9 ratios in the league with 10.29, but the Cardinals are one of the teams in the league that gets strike out the least with just 18.0% K% (#6). Therefore, I believe St Louis will put Samardzija in trouble today.

Adam Wainwright will start for the Cardinals and he is simply the best pitcher of the league this season with an incredible 1.78 FIP! Unlike Samardzija, Wainwright's last outing was on an early game where he threw just 95 pitches and having in account the Cubs' offensive struggles (#27 on OPS over the last 14 days), I believe Wainwright will comfortable dominating another opponent tonight. The Cardinals have a SP edge, a better offense and their SP has also a better spot for tonight, so I expect an easy win for them tonight and therefore, I'll be taking the Cardinals on the runline in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 St Louis Cardinals RL -1.5 (w/ A. Wainwright) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker