DISCLAIMER: This article is more for “entertainment” purposes rather
than handicapping purposes. The limits on my kind of bets is too small and if
you have the conviction that a specific team is going to exceed expectations in
the upcoming NBA season, it’s a lot better to bet consistently on that team in
the games throughout the season. Therefore, this article is just the purpose of
talking about a “fun bet” and also preview some teams.
Golden State Warriors
The sportsbooks put the
Warriors’ season total wins line at the same level of their regular season
record last year: 51-31! So, the key question for the Warriors is easy to
formulate: will Golden State do better this season than they did last season?
In my opinion, this will be a clear yes!
First of all, Golden
State really deserved a better record last season than 51-31, as if we use the
Pythagorean wins-losses, the Warriors should have had a 54-28 record last
season. Under the wing of Mark Jackson, Golden State had an underrated defense,
as they were ranked #4 in the league with a 102.6 defensive rate. This is
exactly the best thing Mark Jackson did as the Warriors’ coach, while this will
be Steve Kerr’s biggest challenge this season. However, I can’t simply ignore
that Mark Jackson had at his disposal Andre Iguodala, Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes,
Klay Thompson and Draymond Green in the roster. With
these quality individual defenders available, this helped the team’s defensive
system a lot!
If I think the defense
will remain pretty much at the same level this season, I believe that Golden
State will suffer great improvements on offense. Having in account that Golden
State ended last season as the #4 best team in the league in 3pts% with a nice
38%, it’s incredible how the Warriors’ had a “mediocre” offense by being just
#12 in the league with 107.5 offensive rates. This was where Mark Jackson did a
bad coaching job last season that probably cost his job. I can’t forget the
several times that I witnessed Mark Johnson ordering post up plays for Harrison
Barnes when he had a small defender on him, ignoring the fact that Barnes is
still very raw offensively. The result of that was Barnes losing all his
confidence and having a poor sophomore season.
Now with Steve Kerr as
the team’s coach, I expect them to have a huge leap on offense! Of course Kerr
lacks experience as a coach, but I like his ideas for the team in the upcoming
season. The Warriors also signed coach Alvin Gentry to Kerr’s coaching staff
and this gives me enough confidence to think that Golden State will definitely
have a sharper offense this season. This won’t be a surprise, as Golden State’s
frontcourt has Andrew Bogut, David Lee and Andre Iguodala, who are all good
passers and therefore, the Warriors’s starting unit has all the conditions to
have an excellent ball movement.
Injuries can always be a
problem and the truth is that Andrew Bogut missed 15 games last season, while
Andre Iguodala and David Lee missed 19 and 13 games respectively. However, the
Warriors were still a competitive team even with these injuries. The Warriors
added Shaun Livingston to their roster and this will give Steve Kerr more
flexibility on the lineups, as Livingston is a plus defender and his size will
cause matchup problems to their opponents.
Therefore, I wouldn’t be
surprised if Golden State has 55 wins on this upcoming regular season and ends
up fighting for home court edge in the first round of the playoffs.
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