MLB Premium Play 08/14: Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees

MLB - 967 Los Angeles Angels @ 968 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: J. Weaver vs I. Nova)

NOTE: No writeup for this contest

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 968 New York Yankees ML (w/ I. Nova) @ -125 / 1.80 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 08/13: Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees

MLB - 913 Los Angeles Angels @ 914 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: J. Vargas vs C. Sabathia)

The Angels will present a depleted lineup tonight, with just three power hitters: Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo and Josh Hamilton. From the three, Trumbo is currently slumping and Josh is 2-17 on AB's against Sabathia. Only Trout can be dangerous tonight. Sabathia played at LA against the Angels in June and allowed just two earned runs in eight innings to an Angels' lineup at its best. Therefore, I believe Sabathia will be able to have a good outing tonight.

Jason Vargas will start for the Angels tonight and I believe he will struggle against a Yankees' lineup that has been showing some positive signs lately. Vargas is coming from the DL and as he is a flyball pitcher, I believe that he will struggle in pitching at the Yankees Stadium tonight. The Yankees' roster is hitting .321 BA and .886 OPS in 131 AB's against Vargas and I believe they will put him in some trouble tonight. Therefore, I expect the Yankees to pick up a comfortable win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 914 New York Yankees ML (w/ C. Sabathia) @ -146 / 1.69 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 08/02: Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels

MLB - 969 Toronto Blue Jays @ 970 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: T. Redmond vs T. Hanson)

Toronto will start Todd Redmond tonight, who is coming from one run allowed over six innings Sunday against Houston. His P/IP ratio has been quite high on his starts, but the truth is that his command has been quite good in fact, with 10/2, 6/1 and 6/1 K/BB! Redmond has been pitching well against RH batters (4.18 FIP and 2.70 xFIP) and this is good news for him, as he will be facing an Angels' lineup that will be full of RH batters as usual. Therefore, I believe Redmond will be able to do a good job tonight.

Tommy Hanson is coming from allowing five earned runs in 4.2 innings against Oakland last Sunday. This was a really poor performance by Hanson and he was actually coming from a decent outing against Minnesota prior to that. Hanson is a flyball pitcher who struggles against RH batters, so he has in the Blue Jays an absolutely terrible matchup. With Redmond having another decent outing tonight and with Hanson being prone to get pounded by the power lineup of Toronto, I see great value on taking the Blue Jays as underdogs tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ T. Redmond) @ +114 / 2.14 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 07/29: Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers

MLB - 963 Los Angeles Angels @ 964 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: J. Weaver vs M. Garza)

Jered Weaver will start for the Angels tonight and he was dominant last Wednesday while shutting out the Twins over eight innings. He has been phenomenal in July by allowing one or fewer runs in four of his starts this month. On my rankings, he is the #2 SP in the league if we consider just the last six outings from each pitcher, with a 1.32 ERA, 2.39 FIP and 3.37 xFIP! Texas's offense has been struggling by being just #25 in the league in both L14 and L30 days, so Weaver should dominate tonight.

Matt Garza looked good in his debut with the Rangers last Wednesday by allowing one-run (zero earned) against the Yankees. However, it's important to note that Garza is struggling this season against RH batters with 4.07 FIP and 4.25 xFIP against them! This is very worrying against the Angels, who have a lineup full of righties. In fact, Garza allowed four earned runs against them in June, so I wouldn't be surprise if something similar happens tonight. I believe the Angels have a good shot to make the upset in here, so I'll be taking them tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 963 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ J. Weaver) @ +129 / 2.29 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/19: Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels

MLB - 977 Oakland Athletics @ 978 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: A. Griffin vs J. Weaver)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The second half of the season starts tonight and if the Angels want to do something this season, they need to get on a nice run as soon as possible! I believe that tonight can be a nice start for this run. Oakland is 5-2 on their last seven games, but those good results were thanks to good pitching, as Oakland's offense couldn't hit even .200 BA in five of their last six games! According to my numbers, the A's are dead last in the league on hitting over the last seven games and #27 over the past two weeks! The Angels will start Jered Weaver tonight and even though he is coming from a poor outing at Seattle prior to the All-Star break, let's not forget that Seattle's offense is #1 in the league over the last two weeks! Prior to that game, Weaver impressed at Detroit and at home against the Cardinals and the Red Sox! Weaver had the second toughest schedule that a SP had over the last 3 and 6 outings, so he will be very well tested for the A's tonight. He absolutely dominated Oakland last season with 0, 0, 1 and 0 earned runs allowed in four starts and I believe he will also have a quality outing tonight.

On the other hand, Oakland will start A.J. Griffin and he has been quite inconsistent as of late. He is coming from a great outing against Boston, but he had only had one outing with numbers above the league average on his last five starts, according to my numbers. His numbers against RH batters are subpar (.304 wOBA, 4.60 FIP and 4.49 xFIP) and this is going to be a huge problem for him tonight against an Angels' lineup that is full of powerful RH batters. We have a clear mismatch on pitching in here. Oakland's offensive problems have been covered by some great pitching as of late, but that won't happen tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Angels in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 978 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ J. Weaver) @ -127 / 1.79 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/09: Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago Cubs

MLB - 979 Los Angeles Angels @ 980 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: J. Blanton vs T. Wood)

I'll be fading Travis Wood tonight. Winds will be blowing out to center field at 5-10mph and with the humidity at 70-80%'s, the ball will be flying tonight, something that will benefit the offenses. Wood has been pitching well, but there is a considerable gap between his 2.69 ERA and his advanced numbers: 3.52 FIP + 4.38 xFIP! This is due to his incredibly low HR/FB rate of just 5.7%! This is tremendous as Wood is an extreme flyball pitcher (46% FB%) and so, he had a lot of luck to have pitched at Oakland and at Seattle on his last two outings: pitcher-friendly parks, where he had 8 flyballs at Oakland and 11 flyballs at Seattle! Today on a hitter-friendly park like the Wrigley Field and with the weather helping the batters, I expect the red hot Angels to finally expose Wood tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the LA Angels to go Over on their team total tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 979 Los Angeles Angels Team Total Over 4,5 @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/07: Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels

MLB - 977 Boston Red Sox @ 978 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: J. Lackey vs J. Weaver)

The LA Angels will start Jered Weaver tonight and he has been quite inconsistent since he returned from the DL. He had two poor back to back outings at home, where he allowed five and four earned runs against the Yankees and the Pirates, while he was much more impressive on his last two starts, where not only he went deep in the games (seven innings each), as he also had stellar advanced numbers with 2.07 and 2.21 FIP! The fact that he did that against Detroit and St Louis (#1 and #5 offenses L30 days) is even more impressive! 

On the other side, Boston will start John Lackey tonight, who is coming from facing two subpar offenses in Colorado and San Diego, but prior to that he had three outings in a row against tough opponents: Detroit, Baltimore and Tampa Bay! In all these outings, Lackey looked great, while having just a few struggles against the Rays.

I believe on a Red Sox bounce back tonight after their stunning loss yesterday. Lackey is quite decent versus RH hitters this season (3.94 FIP and 2.89 xFIP, while allowing .289 BA and .348 wOBA) and he will be fired up to upset his former team on national TV. I see this game as a 50/50 contest, with the Red Sox having good value and also a better spot and so, I'll be taking Boston in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 977 Boston Red Sox ML (w/ J. Lackey) @ +117 / 2.17 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 07/04: St Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels

MLB - 929 St Louis Cardinals @ 930 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: A. Wainwright vs J. Blanton)

The Cardinals absolutely crushed Jerome Williams yesterday. This will be the third game of this series and for now, the first two games ended with one sided wins. The Angels will start Joe Blanton and he is coming from allowing two runs against the Astros in seven innings. His season record is poor (2-10 and a 5.07 ERA), but he has been great as of late with five runs allowed on his last 21 innings! In fact, Blanton is one of the most underrated pitchers in the league this season, as his advanced stats (4.30 FIP and 3.65 xFIP) are much better than his ERA and they are really good! His main problem is the 15.3% HR/FB rate, while his worst outing of his last seven games was at Boston, where he allowed three home runs. However, on a pitcher-friendly park, he is much better with a 0.90 HR/9 at home, while he has a 2.27 HR/9 on the road! This is why he has a 3.26 FIP at home and so, I believe he will have a good performance tonight against the Cardinals, especially as St Louis is just #23 in the league on ISO with .140, so they are unlikely to be able to punish Blanton with home runs.

Adam Wainwright will start for St Louis and he is coming from a complete game at Oakland, where he allowed just one run. After a poor 1st inning against the Cubs at home, he dominated Texas (one earned run allowed in 6.2 innings) and now Oakland (one earned run allowed in a complete game). Of course, his advanced stats were also great on these two outings with 1.95 and 1.71 FIP! Wainwright is a top pitcher in the league and I expect him to show that tonight by limiting one of the best offenses in the league. I see this game being a low scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 929/930 Under 8 (w/ A. Wainwright & J. Blanton) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 06/26: Los Angeles Angels @ Detroit Tigers

MLB - 913 Los Angeles Angels @ 914 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: T. Hanson vs J. Alvarez)

This is a tremendous revenge + bounce back game for Detroit in here. They are 0-7 on their last 7 games against the Angels and they got humiliated yesterday, with the LA team scoring a season high of runs. So, the Tigers will come for tonight's game fired up and they have a great chance to start the game quite well with Jose Alvarez pitching for them. He is coming from two spot starts already in June, with him being competent in both of them with two and one runs allowed. But what I liked was the fact that he did that against Cleveland and Boston, two of the strongest offenses in the league! Alvarez is just giving sequence to his good numbers at the Minors and he will have a surprise factor tonight favoring him, as the Angels don't know him. Besides that, the LA team is just #25 in the league in hitting versus LH pitchers!

On the other hand, the Angels will start Tommy Hanson, who had a good run lately, but he gets pounded everytime he faces a top team. His last start was a disaster, with him allowing seven runs on two innings against Seattle, while he pitched just five innings at Boston, where he had to throw 114 pitches: a 22.8 P/IP! I believe the fired up Tigers will crush them today since the start of the game. I expect the Tigers to come fired up tonight and take an early lead in the game, so I'll take Detroit on the first five innings of the game in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 914 Detroit Tigers ML FIRST 5 INNINGS @ -144 / 1.69 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/23: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Los Angeles Angels

MLB - 979 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 980 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: C. Morton vs J. Blanton)

The Angels will start Joe Blanton today, who may have a 1-10 record this season, but he is pitching much better than that record shows. He had a 11/2 K/BB ratio on his last start and previous to that, he had 6/1 K/BB at Boston, 11/0 vs Houston and 5/0 at LA against the Dodgers. That's a 33/3 K/BB ratio on his last four starts! The Pirates are one of the teams that struggles the most with strikeouts and they are indeed #30 in the league on K% with 25.7% over the past 30 days! Therefore, I expect Blanton to use his great command to dominate the Pirates.

On the other hand, Charlie Morton will start for Pittsburgh today. He pitched well at Cincinnati, but prior to that he got pounded by the Giants. I believe that the fact that the slumping Josh Hamilton not playing today will only help the Angels, whose potent lineup should be too much for Morton. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for the LA team in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 980 Los Angeles Angels RL -1 (w/ J. Blanton) @ -114 / 1.88 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/18: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels

MLB - 923 Seattle Mariners @ 924 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: J. Bonderman vs J. Blanton)

The Angels are coming from a game last night where they had a season high 21 hits. Tonight they will face Jeremy Bonderman, who will make his fourth start this season. He started with a poor outing at Minnesota with seven runs allowed in 4.2 innings, but then he had nice back to back outings. The key in here is to realize that his last two starts were at home, something that helped him a lot, while he faced the Yankees and the Astros, two teams that are #29 and #30 in the league on OPS over the last 14 days with .611 and .607 respectively! Now against the Angels, who are #2 on this rank with .824 OPS over the last two weeks, things will be completely different. Therefore, I expect the red hot Angels' lineup to pound Bonderman tonight and so, I'll be taking the LA team to go Over their team total on tonight's game.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 924 Los Angeles Angels Team Total Over 4.5 (w/ J. Bonderman) @ -130 / 1.77 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 05/23: Los Angeles Angels @ Kansas City Royals

MLB - 909 Los Angeles Angels @ 910 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: J. Blanton vs E. Santana)

If we look at how the Angels are hitting right now, they are close to immediate value every time they are underdogs. They will face Erwin Santana and the Royals tonight and as a former Angel, Santana won't have any kind of surprise factor going on for him tonight. He has been pitching quite well this season, but honestly looking at the Angels' hitting form right now, I expect Santana to end up getting in trouble sooner or later tonight.

So, it's up to know what Joe Blanton will be able to do tonight. He is coming from a poor outing against the White Sox, where he had already allowed 10 hits in 4 innings, even though no run was scored in all those hits! In fact, Blanton has allowed 11 and 12 hits on his last two starts. However, it's also important to mention that his command was impeccable in those starts with 6/2 and 7/0 K/BB ratios! Unfortunately for him he had .611 and .632 BABIP in those outings, but I expect him to be a bit more lucky tonight. Kansas City has been slumping a bit on their hitting lately and they are just #24 in the league with .683 OPS this season versus RH pitchers. Therefore, I expect Blanton to have a decent outing tonight, while the Angels' lineup have another nice game, so I see good value on the Angels as underdogs in here.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 909 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ J. Blanton) @ +117 / 2.17 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 05/22: Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels

MLB - 973 Seattle Mariners @ 974 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: B. Mauer vs C. Wilson)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY - SPLIT THE WAGER***

It seems like the Angels have woken up. They have gotten three wins in a row with their offense playing well. Both Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton have hit over .270 BA over the past week and with that combined with some nice pitching, the Angels have back at being very competitive, something that should happen today once again with Wilson. The Angels will face Mauer today, who has already faced the Angels at home earlier on the season and he dominated them with a shutdown over 6.1 innings. However, he has been struggling as of late with 6/4, 4/2 and 2/2 K/BB ratios, while allowing homeruns in each of these outings. He won't stand a chance with his red hot Angels' offense!

On the other hand, Wilson has been pitching much better lately and he looked good on his last two outings against the White Sox. With the Angels pounding Mauer and with Wilson doing a decent job today against the Mariners, I expect the Angels to have an easy win today. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Angels on the runline and the over on the LA's team total for today. Split the wager!

Pick: 2 units on 974 Los Angeles Angels Over 4,5 @ -130 / 1.77 on Betonline

Pick: 2 units on 974 Los Angeles Angels RL -1.5 (w/ C. Wilson) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 05/03: Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels

MLB - 927 Baltimore Orioles @ 928 Los Angeles Angels

(Starting Pitchers: M. Gonzalez vs J. Vargas)

Miguel Gonzalez will start for the Orioles tonight and he is coming from a no-decision last Sunday in Oakland, where he allowed four runs and seven hits in 5.1 innings. He has been quite inconsistent this season, as his 17/14 K/BB ratio on 29.1 innings shows. Looking at his numbers (4.60 ERA, 5.27 FIP and 5.39 xFIP), his advanced stats are clearly worse than his ERA, so I expect him to regress a bit. His main problem has been against RH batters, where he has a horrible 7.52 FIP and 5.97 xFIP against them! Considering the Angels have an almost-exclusively RH lineup, Gonzalez is into some deep trouble tonight.

On the other side, Jason Vargas will start for the Angels tonight and he is yet to win a decision this season. He struggled early on the season and even though his last two outings were better at first sight, his advanced stats tell us another story: 2.25 ERA, 5.27 FIP and 4.15 xFIP & 3.86 ERA, 6.02 FIP and 5.99 xFIP! Baltimore is #12 in the league against LH pitchers this season, so I expect the Orioles to put some problems on the struggling Vargas as well. Therefore, I expect both pitchers to struggle tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 927/928 Over 8,5 (w/ M. Gonzalez & J. Vargas) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker