MLB - 907 Philadelphia Phillies @ 908 Pittsburgh Pirates
(Starting Pitchers: C. Hamels vs G. Cole)
As I expected, Philadelphia is being very competitive on this series. Pittsburgh is being overrated, something that made them completely overrated on the first two games of this series. Pittsburgh's bullpen has been brilliant, but even in that Philadelphia was able to counter that yesterday when Domonic Brown had a homerun against Jason Grilli in the 9th inning yesterday. For today's game, Philadelphia will start Cole Hamels who is on an extra rest spot. Hamels had currently a terrible 2-11 season record, but the advanced numbers say that he has been very unlucky. His 8.41 K/9 and 2.80 BB/9 are right on par with his career averages, but his .303 BABIP and 68.9% strand rate are both career worsts. This shows that Hamels has been unlucky this season. In fact, Hamels ended June with a 3.94 ERA, but with a 3.06 FIP and 3.29 xFIP! Now with extra rest, I expect Hamels to have a nice start today.
Pittsburgh will start rookie Gerrit Cole today. This will be his fifth start and he allowed 3, 2, 3 and 2 earned runs on his first four outings. His lack of strikeouts is alarming, as he faced just one good offenses in those four games: the Angels on the road, where he had a nice game. However, Cole seems to have a problem. His numbers versus LH batters aren't great at all. Even though we are talking about a small sample, .296 BA and .312 wOBA allowed, with a 5.12 xFIP are worrying numbers. The first four teams that he faced (Milwaukee, LA Angels, LA Dodgers and San Francisco) all have rightly lineups, while Philadelphia's best hitters are left-handed: Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Domonic Brown, Ryan Howard and Ben Revere. Therefore, Cole may struggle a lot today.
Looking at the SP edge that I believe Philadelphia will have today, I expect this game to be a 50/50 contest, something that gives great value to the Phillies today. Therefore, I'll be taking Philadelphia in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ C. Hamels) @ +123 / 2.23 on 5Dimes
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