NBA - 807 Indiana Pacers @ 808 Miami Heat
Projected Line: 185 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
We will have finally the opportunity to see Miami completely focused on a regular season game, as this duel against Indiana certainly matters for the Heat, who got crushed twice in Indiana earlier on the season. In their two previous games against Orlando and Philadelphia, Miami had their usual moments of laziness, especially on the defensive end. On their game against Orlando, the Heat allowed 34 points in the third quarter and on their last game against the Sixers, they allowed Philadelphia to score 51 points in the first half and the Sixers hung around until the Heat shut them down down the stretch, while allowing just 18 points in the fourth quarter.
Miami's approach on tonight's game will be very different. The Heat will certainly struggle on the down low against Indiana, as the Pacers's size is a huge mismatch on this matchup and Miami will have to live with that. However, the Heat can't allow Indiana not only to dominate on the down low, but also have good outside shooting numbers. That happened on their last game against Indiana and that's why the Heat lost in such clear fashion. Not only David West torched them with 12-15 FG, 30 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists, as the Pacers also shot 7-17 3pts with George Hill, Lance Stephenson and Paul George shooting a combined of 16-31 (51.6%) FG! With Miami being well prepared for tonight, I don't believe that Indiana will be able to combine these two facets on this game and so, they will struggle on offense in comparison with their numbers on the last game between these two teams.
The problem for Miami is that Indiana is the #1 defense in the league and so, they are a bad matchup for Miami, as they are for any team really. The numbers that really matter are the fact that the Pacers are #1 in the league on transition defense and also #1 in the league on spot up defense, two areas where the Heat's offense excels. With the Heat having no easy transition points and with the Pacers making some great close out on the shooters, Miami won't have an easy task on this game.
We have in here a tremendous edge on the Under with this game. On the last game between these two teams, I took the Over 184 for an easy win. However, the pace of that game was 84.10, which tell us that the game was played on a pure half court style, with Indiana having a monster offensive rating of 118.6! With this game being played on a playoffs context, I believe tonight's contest will also be a half court battle, with both teams showing a lot of intensity, therefore this game should have had the same totals line from the last game played between these two teams. We have a great edge on the Under tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 807/808 Under 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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