NBA - 561 Dallas Mavericks @ 562 Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Line: Dallas by 2 points
Milwaukee had a 3-game road trip against Pacific opponents, including back to back games at Golden State and Sacramento. They were completely shorthanded in the game against the Kings and now, with just 1 day off to rest and prepare tonight's game, this is definitely a tough game for them, especially as they have four banged up players: Larry Sanders, Ersan Ilyasova, J.J. Redick and Luc Mbah a Moute. On the other hand, Dallas has a much easier spot: they are also on a road trip, but always on short trips. They played at Detroit, then at Minnesota and they'll play tonight at Milwaukee. Besides that, they had a blowout win over the Wolves on their last game, where they were able to rest their starters. This is also a revenge game for Dallas, as they lost at home against the Bucks, in a game where I took Milwaukee +5,5. The Bucks won that game by 95-90, while ending the contest on a 12-2 run, after being down by 83-88 with three minutes to go! Both teams were super inconsistent in that game, with both the Mavs and the Bucks alternating big runs on the scoreboard. What screwed the Mavericks at the end was the poor play of their bench, as Vince Carter shot 0-8 FG, Mike James 0-4 FG, Anthony Morrow 0-2 FG and Jae Crowder 0-2 for a combined of 0-16 FG! If we add to this poor play from Dallas's bench a terrible outside shooting night with 1-17 3pts and 20 turnovers, it's actually incredible how Dallas was up by 5 points with 3 minutes to go!
Dallas's offense is based on two key areas for them. pick and roll ball handler plays (#7 in the league) and transitions (#4 in the league). On this contest with Larry Sanders banged up plus Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings coming from heavy minutes on their road trip, I believe the Mavericks will be able to have good numbers on these two areas. Dallas won't get crushed on the rebounds tonight, as Milwaukee isn't a much better rebounding team than them. So, with the Mavericks having a much better physical spot, revenge and also a better mental spot as they're fighting for a playoff spot, I believe Dallas will be able to score an important win tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Mavericks in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 561 Dallas Mavericks (+2) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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