NBA - 815 Miami Heat @ 816 Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Line: 208 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Milwaukee had a tough spot at Washington, as they were playing their fourth game in five days, including an exhausting game at home against Dallas the night before. Their lack of legs was evident in some areas: the Bucks got outrebounded by Washington while grabbing just 48% of the rebounds, even though this isn't very worrying, as Milwaukee isn't really a good rebounding team. However, they attempted just 12 free throws, something that showed a lack of aggressive on the offensive end, while three of their guards had subpar shooting numbers with Mike Dunleavy, Brandon Jennings and J.J. Redick shooting a combined of 8-28 (28.5%) FG! For today, the Bucks had one day off and with this game being against Miami, I'm sure they will be fired up to shine.
On the other hand, Miami continues their unstoppable run. I faded them on their last game against Philadelphia, as I knew the Sixers would cause some problems to Miami in some matchups, especially due to the speed of Thaddeus Young. That exactly happened, as Young had once again monster numbers against the Heat: 11-20 FG, 24 points and 15 rebounds! Even the undersized Sixers were able to outrebound the Heat by grabbing 52% of the rebounds and most surprisingly, they simply pound the Heat down low with 27-36 FG at the rim! Even though they had these two edges, Philadelphia couldn't beat Miami down the stretch, as the Heat are simply unplayable on the last minutes of their games nowadays! By the way, Miami struggled on their long range shooting with 7-21 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-20 3pts, for a combined of 12-41 FG from more than 16 feet! That's just 29% FG!
This game has every condition to be a shootout with Milwaukee setting up their fast pace. I remember that the Bucks are practically the only run and gun team on the East this season. Both teams didn't have good offensive numbers on their last game, but that was due to the spot they were at the time. After all, Milwaukee was playing a back to back game and the fourth game in five nights, while Miami was also on a back to back spot, including a trip from Miami to Philadelphia.
The Heat had a poor perimeter shooting game at Philadelphia. I did some research and they are just shooting 40% FG from 16-23 feet and 37.3% 3pts on back to back games. On the other hand, when they had at least one day to rest, they are shooting 45% FG from 16-23 feet and 39% 3pts! Besides that, Miami will have a favorable matchup tonight against Milwaukee. Since J.J. Redick joined the Bucks, Milwaukee has been having worse perimeter defensive numbers than usual, something that isn't a surprise, as their guards rotation is formed by Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, J.J. Redick and Mike Dunleavy, so it's not hard to understand why they are struggling on defense lately with 45% FG allowed from 16-23 feet and 38.7% 3pts! These are good news for Miami's offense, who will have in here a great spot to perform in a high level.
The good news for Milwaukee's guards is that they will have an edge on offense against Miami's defense. Monta Ellis is just too fast for Dwayne Wade, while J.J. Redick will matchup pretty well with Ray Allen. Even Brandon Jennings's speed will be a problem for Mario Chalmers. Milwaukee has been having great numbers from spot up plays with 1.02 PPP since the All Star break and Miami has been quite lazy on this defensive area lately. The first two games of this series were playing on a good tempo, something natural considering Milwaukee was playing. Both contests were still on the Scott Skiles era, with the Heat scoring just 85 points at Milwaukee on the second game between these two teams this season. This is explained with the fact that the Heat was playing their fourth game in five nights, so they had no legs to compete and got crushed by 14-35 on the fourth quarter of that game! This time that won't happen and therefore, I expect this game to be a complete shootout! I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 815/816 Over 201,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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