NBA - 809 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 810 Houston Rockets
Projected Line: Houston by 7 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
I have to give merit to Minnesota lately for playing hard, even though they are completely shorthanded and without great talent available. I faded them at Indiana and I won, but the truth is that even though they were on a terrible spot with their fourth game in five days and with a depleted roster, Minnesota fought extremely well until their wheels came off.
"We played hard, we just didn't have enough," coach Rick Adelman said. "We ran out of gas in the second half, but they competed."
The Wolves had a clear size disadvantage against Indiana and the result of that was them getting completely outrebounded by grabbing just 40% of the boards. Besides that, it was inevitable that the Pacers's big men had good games. Roy Hibbert dominated with 10-15 FG, 27 points and 12 rebounds, while David West had 6-8 FG, 13 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists! Even though they had these mismatches, Minnesota was able to hang around with Indiana until mid-third quarter and that's impressive!
For tonight's game, I believe Minnesota will surprise by being competitive once again, as we have matchups and the spot favoring them. First of all, we are talking about a spot that won't require a lot of focus for Houston. They are coming from a blowout win at home against Phoenix, on a game that had revenge, as they had lost at Phoenix on their previous game. So, the rested Rockets had no problems in crushing the Suns and this is why I took them on that game! Now the Rockets will face the lowly Wolves at home, knowing that they will play against the Warriors next Sunday, on a game that will be super important for their playoffs aspirations. Therefore, the Rockets are on a clear overlook spot in today's game.
Matchup wise, Minnesota had some favorable matchups today. Houston's offense has been great the whole season, but their flaw is that they commit turnovers in a pretty high rate. They are last in the league in turnover rate with 16.4% and they are averaging 15.8 turnovers per game. They haven't improved on this area one bit lately and the truth is that they committed 21 and 23 turnovers on their two recent games against Phoenix! These are good news for Minnesota's defense, who is simply the team in the league that forced more turnovers on their last 10 games with an impressive 17.5 turnovers per game! Coach Adelman has no other option but to use a 3-guards lineup and even though that turns them into an undersized team, Minnesota is being able to put a lot of pressure on the ball handler, forcing turnovers in the process. Ricky Rubio has been especially great on this area lately.
Houston also plays small ball like we all know, so Minnesota won't get outrebounded and pounded down low tonight like they were at Indiana last Wednesday night. The Wolves have been using a lot of pick and roll ball handler plays on offense and they are being effective in those. On their last against San Antonio, they had 22% volume on these plays and they shot 9-20 FG, with a nice 0.83 PPP, while on their last game against Indiana, they had 28% volume with 9-23 FG and 0.86 PPP! Note that the Spurs and the Pacers are elite defensive teams, something that makes these numbers be even more impressive! Houston doesn't have a good perimeter defense and James Harden is banged up, so I don't really expect a lot of effort from Houston's defense tonight, something that will allow Minnesota to have another good game on their pick and rolls tonight.
Of course Houston has a superior shooting ability over Minnesota, but the Wolves are clearly being underrated tonight with a spot and matchup edges that makes me believe that Minnesota are going to be competitive tonight. Therefore, looking at the huge spread line, I'll be taking the Wolves tonight on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 809 Minnesota Timberwolves (+14,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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