NBA Free Premium Play 03/16: Phoenix Suns @ Washington Wizards

Phoenix  at Washington

NBA - 501 Phoenix Suns @ 502 Washington Wizards Projected Line: 192 points Phoenix's main ambition right now is rotate their players, give minutes to some scrub players to see if they have a future on the team or not. Also thanks to that, we are watching almost all their players showing a good effort in every game, as they know they are fighting a roster spot on the team for next season. However, that is only happening on offense, as their defense has been a complete mess. They are #26 in the league on spot up defense and #30 on off screens defense, on a clear sign that their perimeter defense is horrible. In fact, they have allowed 68-148 (46%) 3pts to their opponents on their last six games! Their interior isn't much better nowadays. Jermaine O'Neal is too slow to defend anybody and we are talking about the team's starting center. The Morris brothers are showing some hustle, but they are very raw in terms of defensive positioning and even on defensive IQ as well. So, their rim defense is regressing even more lately, the same happening with their cuts defense and offensive rebounds allowed. These are great news for the Wizards's offense, who is playing very well right now due to John Wall's excellent form. He is not only scoring a lot, as he is also taking good decisions. This is why Washington shot 8-9 FG on transitions yesterday for example. The Wizards are shooting very well from behind the arc and yesterday was no exception with 9-20 (45%) 3pts. In fact, over the last 10 games, Washington is #3 in the league with 40.8%! So, the Wizards will have a big edge today against Phoenix's poor perimeter defense, while also having a nice edge on transitions and of course on the down low against the Suns's poor interior defense. Nene Hilario, Emeka Okafor, Trevor Booker and Kevin Seraphin will all have a good opportunity to have a nice offensive game tonight. On the other side, we have Phoenix rotating their lineups a rot and they have been setting up a very fast pace on their games thanks to that. They have on the bench players like Jared Dudley, Luis Scola and Michael Beasley, but their real offensive weapon is the pick and rolls with Goran Dragic. I mentioned yesterday how the Hornets would have a clear edge on pick and rolls against Washington's defense who has regressed a lot on this area lately and the truth is that the Hornets shot 10-17 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays with 1.00 PPP! The problem for the Hornets's offense yesterday was that they couldn't hit a long shot to save their lives: 9-19 3pts and 4-15 FG on spot up plays! Still, the game between the Wizards and the Hornets had a combined offensive rating of 222.5 and that would have been enough for us to win the Over if it wasn't for the super slow pace of 82.4! However, tonight's game won't have a slow pace, while the combined offensive rating of this game should be similar or even better than yesterday's game between the Wizards and the Hornets. Both teams aren't in great spots, as Washington will be playing their fourth game in five days, while Phoenix will play their third game in four nights and they played last night as well at Atlanta. However, Washington played three of these games at home, including last night's contest against New Orleans, so the spot isn't that bad. On the other hand, Phoenix is rotating so much their players that they shouldn't struggle that much physically tonight, as nobody is playing heavy minutes right now. Therefore, I expect a relatively high scoring tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker