NBA - 807 Phoenix Suns @ 808 Atlanta Hawks
Projected Line: 196 points
The last game between these two teams was a complete no-show from Atlanta, where they scored just 87 points at Phoenix on 42.5% FG shooting and while committing 21 turnovers! Josh Smith and Jeff Teague shot a combined of 5-21 FG! The Hawks were playing their third game of a road trip and they had just played a road game at Utah, so they had no legs to play at Phoenix. For tonight's game, the spot is much better for Atlanta, as they are on a home span and they're coming from a nice win over the Lakers, even though they were shorthanded. Of course Atlanta's offense will have a clear edge on transitions tonight. Phoenix is now experiencing a lot with their young players. They don't have a great interior presence and Jermaine O'Neal will start tonight at the Center position, but he doesn't have speed especially on an up and down game like this one, where Atlanta will set a fast tempo tonight. Phoenix allowed 24, 14, 22 and 17 fast break points on their last four games and the 14 points allowed were against the Rockets that were on a back to back spot, after playing a really tough game at Golden State the night before. Therefore, Atlanta won't have any problems in scoring easy points tonight.
Thanks to this aggressiveness from the Hawks, they are together with Miami the only two teams that are shooting more than 70% FG at the rim this season. Now against the poor interior defense of the Suns, we are going to have Atlanta scoring easy points at the rim plus their transition points, so we have excellent conditions in here to see the Hawks having a big offensive game tonight. On the other side, the Suns are now converted into an up tempo team, with an average pace of 95.4 on their last six games! They are giving considerable minutes to a lot of players, so their offensive flow is a bit ruined. However, on these six games, the Suns averaged a nice mark of 15.8 fast break points per game! Goran Dragic will have a nice matchup against Jeff Teague and he was the key factor on the Suns's win against Atlanta back in Phoenix with 8-15 FG, 19 points and 6 rebounds in just 29 minutes! We will have an almost run and gun game tonight, something that gives us a lot of value on the Over, looking at the current line of 192,5 points. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 192,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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