NBA - 817 Memphis Grizzlies @ 818 Denver Nuggets
Projected Line: 191 points
This is a game between two red hot teams who have been winning their games mostly thanks to some great defense. The truth is that since the All Star break, Memphis is averaging a defensive rating on their games of 100.1, while Denver isn't that far behind with 103.6! Memphis is coming from a big win on a statement game at LA against the Clippers, where they showed that they are indeed an elite team. That game had a super slow pace of 77, with the Grizzlies having some insane offensive numbers: 54.5% FG, 6-12 3pts, 16-21 FT and 13 turnovers for an offensive rating of 124.6! The most incredible number of the Grizzlies in that game was the fact that they had zero fast break points! They had just six transition plays the whole game, on a clear sign that their gameplan was to slow down the pace and force the Clippers to play half court basketball, where the Grizzlies's elite defense could stop them with ease. I have no doubt that the Grizzlies will do the same tonight at Denver.
Both the Grizzlies's and the Nuggets's defense follow the same approach of packing the paint. The Nuggets are #30 in the league on spot up defense, but they have an elite defense, while the Grizzlies have woken up in terms of rim defense by allowing just 60% FG on this area since the All Star Break. Perhaps Tayshaun Prince is also helping his new team on this area. Denver has been shooting quite well for their regular level, but that has been happening in games where they have a good flow and where the opponent is unable to make good close outs on them. Now against the Grizzlies, who have a very physical defense and who will force them to play at a slower pace than usual, the Nuggets will struggle on their outside shooting tonight.
I expect this game to have a playoff atmosphere, with both teams showing a lot of intensity. I see this game being a relatively low scoring game due to the way these two teams match up against each other and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 817/818 Under 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
No comments:
Post a Comment