NBA - 505 New Orleans Hornets @ 506 Memphis Grizzlies
Projected Line: Memphis by 4 points
The spot isn't great for Memphis. They played at Miami and Orlando, then returned home to face Portland, just to go back on the road to play at Cleveland last night. Marc Gasol played 40 minutes yesterday, Tayshaun Prince, Mike Conley and Tony Allen played 33 minutes each, so the Grizzlies are indeed on a tough spot tonight. Looking at the matchup, the Hornets's defense can be a tough matchup for Memphis's offense, even though they have one of the worst defenses in the league. This happens because New Orleans pack the paint on defense and give space on the perimeter to their opponents. This kind of tactics result against Memphis, as they aren't a good long range shooting team. They can have a decent game at times (11-24 3pts at Orlando), but then they can also struggle on the three following games with 4-13, 4-12 and 4-11 3pts! This is especially relevant when Zach Randolph won't play once again today and therefore, Anthony Davis will have a much easier matchup than expected tonight. With Memphis not having a super size edge on the down low tonight, this will allow both Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis to be more rested on defense, something that will allow him to play better on offense.
The Hornets's offense has in Eric Gordon a decent option, even though he has been very inconsistent this season. However, New Orleans is likely to have some edge on pick and rolls ball handler plays tonight, as the Grizzlies are just #13 in the league on this area with 0.78 PPP allowed for the season, but 0.86 PPP allowed on their last 10 games! Memphis's transition defense is also regressing a bit, so this is another area where the Hornets's offense should be able to have some success tonight.
Memphis is currently playing with a mindset similar to Miami's. It seems that they relax for most of the game, until they ignite their turbo down the stretch and win their contests. They had huge comebacks against Dallas and Portland, even though they needed big third quarters to do that, after a couple of slow starts. New Orleans has been a very good road underdog all season long with 19-10 ATS, including 11-2 ATS as mid-range underdogs (6-9.5 points). Also teams on back to back spots are 10-19 ATS this season against New Orleans. I expect the Hornets to surprisingly turn this game into a ballgame and so, I'll be taking them in here tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 New Orleans Hornets (+7,5) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada
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