Projected Line: pk line
While 85% of the public is currently betting on Indianapolis, I expect this contest to be much closer than they expect. It's a complete fact that Andrew Luck was amazing last Sunday against Miami, especially on clutch moments, as the Colts went 13-19 on third downs! Indianapolis is getting a lot of yardage on offense and Andrew Luck is playing very well on the clutch moments of the game, but note that Luck has just a 10/8 TD/INT ratio, while being #29 on the league in completion percentage, #19 in yards per pass attempt, #25 in QB rating and #23 on red zone offense. He's playing well, but note that his team's last three games were against Cleveland and Tennessee, two lowly teams, and Miami, who struggled on pass defense the whole game and they were unable to make the right adjustments throughout the game. Now, Andrew Luck will be playing on the road against a divisional rival with nothing to lose, therefore I believe he will have a letdown tonight on the first time that he will face a NFL defense that has previously faced him before. With the surprise factor gone, I believe Andrew Luck is really headed into a letdown tonight against a pass defense that, even though isn't the top 5 pass defense that they were last season, is still a quite decent unit. We all know that the Colts' running game can't do a lot of damage to their opponents and Jacksonville should be able to limit Vick Ballard and Donald Brown tonight as well.
We all know that Blaine Gabbert isn't a brilliant quarterback. However, he has just thrown five interceptions this season (he had two interceptions last week, but one of them wasn't his fault) and considering the fact that the Colts' defense has just two interceptions in eight games, I believe Gabbert should be able to avoid turnovers tonight. I believe he is better than he was last season and even though he keeps being one of the least effective quarterbacks on the league, he is now able of throwing a couple of good passes per game, especially against teams with poor pass defenses like the Colts, who will likely be playing tonight without their two best cornerbacks. In the running game, with Maurice Jones-Drew still out, Rashad Jennings is now the main running back of the team and even though he hasn't been very effective until now, he will now face a team that is allowing 4.8 rushing yards per carry (#29 in the league), so this is a good opportunity for Jennings to have a breakthrough tonight.
Jacksonville also has some special teams edge and I like their spot for tonight. Their owner said earlier this week that the Jags season is being "sad and embarrassing" and with a 1-7 record, they have their time to shine tonight on their only National TV game of the season! Indianapolis has been playing well at home, but they are just 1-2 on the road, with their win coming from an overtime win at Tennessee, while they got crushed in Chicago and in NY against Jets. I believe Jacksonville should be able to make this game very competitive, in a huge effort from them, therefore I'll be glad to take the home underdog on a decent spread on this National TV rivalry game. I'm taking the Jaguars in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 106 Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
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