Projected Line: 40 points
This is a similar spot to the one last week where I took the Under in the game between Green Bay and Jacksonville. Aaron Rodgers will face one of the best pass defenses in the league, while not having his two best wide receivers in Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson on the field. This will certainly cause him problems against a Cardinals' pass defense that is #4 in completions% allowed, #12 in yards allowed per pass attempt and #6 in QB rating allowed. Things will only get worse for him, as Arizona leads the league in sacks with 26 sacks (tied with Green Bay) and the Packers' offensive line keeps struggling, having allowed 28 sacks on their first eight games of the season! Therefore, I expect Aaron Rodgers to have some problems today against a good defense that will put a lot of pressure on him as well. The Packers lack a good running game to give any kind of support to their passing game, so I believe Green Bay will indeed struggle a bit on offense today.
But if the Packers will struggle a bit on offense, the Cardinals will struggle a lot on offense! John Skelton is having a quite poor season, however that's not entirely his fault. It's hard for a quarterback to have a good season when the offensive line has allowed 39 sacks on their first eight games of the season! Green Bay leads the league in sacks and they will be all over John Skelton today, who will spend the whole game running away from the Packers' defense. Considering the fact that Arizona has lost their main two running backs due to injury and they are currently the worst team in the league in rushing yards per carry, I believe the Cardinals will struggle to have any kind of decent production today in either the passing game or the running game. They're getting shutdown today, just like they were last week against San Francisco.
Therefore, I expect a game where both defenses will cause a lot of problems to the offenses. Both teams have an excellent pass rush and a quite poor offensive line, therefore I expect both quarterbacks to have tough days today. With both teams also lacking a productive running game, I expect this game to be a low scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 417/418 Under 43.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 9 - 419 Miami Dolphins @ 420 Indianapolis Colts
Projected Line: Miami by 4 points
This has suddenly turned into a very important game, with both teams posting a 4-3 record and having at least the chance of grabbing a wildcard spot at the end of the regular season. Ryan Tannehill suffered a quad injury last week against the Jets and he was replaced by Matt Moore, who did a fine job in that game. It's expected that Tannehill plays today, but even if he doesn't, I believe both Tannehill and Moore have a similar level and I don't see Miami losing quality for today if Tannehill ends up not playing. Considering the fact that Indianapolis doesn't have a good pass defense (#25 in completions% allowed, #22 em yards allowed per pass attempt and #29 in QB rating allowed), I expect either Ryan Tannehill or Matt Moore to be able to throw a couple of big passes today. The Colts' pass rush shouldn't be able to cause a lot of problems on the Dolphins' good offensive line and so, I believe Miami will be able to take some advantage of the problems that Indianapolis have on their secondary. The Dolphins lack a very effective running game, however considering how poor the Colts run defense is (#29 with 4.8 rushing yards allowed per carry), it's also not impossible that either Daniel Thomas or Reggie Bush have a rare good day on this contest as well.
On the other side of the field, Andrew Luck will face one of the best pass defenses in the league and I don't expect him to have a good luck. Even though he has been playing well down the stretch, the truth is that Luck is just #29 in completions%, #23 in yards per pass attempt and #29 in QB rating, while having a 8/8 TD/INT ratio. These aren't good numbers at all, even for a rookie! Miami has a good pass rush as well and they will put pressure on Luck, something that should cause him to struggle as well. The Dolphins also have the second best run defense in football with 3.5 rushing yards allowed per carry and I don't expect the Colts running game to have a good day today. Miami has one of the best all-around defenses in the league and I expect them to cause a lot of problems to the Indianapolis offense today.
Even though neither offense is an elite unit, there is a huge difference on defense between these two teams. While Miami has an elite defense that will prevent the Colts offense from having a decent day today, Indianapolis' defense is quite poor and they should allow some yardage to the Dolphins. Miami is clearly a more consistent team than Indianapolis and I expect them to show today that they are indeed the much better team as well. Therefore, I'll be taking the Dolphins in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 419 Miami Dolphins (-1) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
NFL Week 9 - 433 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 434 Oakland Raiders
Projected Line: Tampa Bay by 2 points
Both teams have reasons to come to this game with some confidence. Tampa Bay is coming from an excellent win in Minnesota on Thursday Night Football, while Oakland has won their last two games. However, it seems clear to me that the Buccaneers are clearly the better team out of the two right now and they should be able to get a rare back-to-back win on the road.
Josh Freeman is having an excellent season, with a 14/5 TD/INT ratio, while being #32 in completions%, #2 in yards per pass attempt and #8 in QB rating. He may be inconsistent on his throwing, but he just keeps throwing big plays, especially in the direction of Vincent Jackson. They have another good matchup today against the mediocre pass defense of the Raiders and Josh Freeman should be able to pound them, even though they lost OG Carl Nicks for the season with a toe injury. Tampa Bay has a good offensive line (even without Nicks) and Oakland's pass rush has been quite poor, so I don't expect Josh Freeman to get pressured today at all. Doug Martin is also coming from an excellent game in Minnesota and he should be able to have some yardage today as well on the running game, even though Oakland's run defense has been quite reasonable with 3.9 rushing yards allowed per carry.
Carson Palmer is having a very solid season, with just five interceptions, however his numbers are quite average and not impressive at all. Speaking of impressive, Tampa Bay has been quite good in intercepting opposing quarterbacks this season, so Palmer better not start throwing his usual high-risk passes or he's going to get intercepted today. It's true that Tampa Bay's pass defense hasn't been good this season, however they are compensating that with takeaways and with one of the best run defenses in football as well by allowing just 3.5 rushing yards per carry to their opponents. I believe Carson Palmer will be able to throw some good passes today, however there is a clear risk that he will commit turnovers as well, besides the fact that he will get zero support from the running game, who has been very poor this season and who will be facing one of the best run defenses in the league.
Both teams have some quality on their passing game and they will be facing a mediocre pass defense, so there's a strong chance that both Josh Freeman and Carson Palmer will have good games today. However, not only Carson Palmer doesn't have a wide receiver with the quality of Vincent Jackson, as he will be facing a dangerous team in takeaways and he will get zero support from his team's running game, while Josh Freeman will have the support of an in-form Doug Martin. The spot also favors Tampa Bay, who had an extra three days to prepare this game and they clearly seem to be as not only the better team in here, as also the most solid and with more solutions on their game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Buccaneers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 433 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 9 - 435 Pittsburgh Steelers @ 436 New York Giants
Projected Line: NY Giants by 6 points
This was a very tough week for both teams. The Giants saw their city getting hit with Hurricane Sandy and all the consequences that it caused, while Pittsburgh couldn't find a place to stay in New Jersey and so, they are traveling from Pittsburgh only today!
"The Steelers will stay overnight at a Pittsburgh hotel, then depart at about 9:15 a.m. for a one-hour flight. According to NFL guidelines, teams are required to travel the day before a game. But the league made an exception for the Steelers, considering the circumstances. The Steelers will fly into Newark Airport only hours before the scheduled 4:25 p.m. kickoff because of travel issues caused by Hurricane Sandy. The team’s hotel in Jersey City, N.J. is still without power since the storm ravaged the East Coast. The team will have a pregame meal at an airport area hotel, then bus to the stadium."
So, not only the spot will be a little more favorable to the Giants, as they have a good matchup today. Eli Manning has been having a solid season and even though his numbers aren't that great, the truth is that he has been amazing down the stretch. He will be well protected by a very good offensive line that won't have problems in outplaying the poor pass rush of the Steelers, so I expect Eli Manning to be able to throw some good passes today against a Pittsburgh defense that just can't intercept anyone this season (just 3 interceptions in seven games!). The Giants' running game has also been quite effective this season with both Ahmad Bradshaw and Andre Brown and they should have a good day today against a Steelers run defense that has regressed a lot in comparison to the previous seasons, as they are just #16 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry! Therefore, I expect the Giants to have a decent offensive game today.
I don't expect the same thing for the Steelers offense. Ben Roethlisberger is having a very good season and the offensive line is surprisingly hanging in there quite well, however the Giants' pass rush has woken up and they will put a lot of pressure on Roethlisberger today. The Giants lead the league in interceptions with 16 (tied with Chicago) and I'm quite sure they will be able to force a couple of turnovers on a highly pressured Roethlisberger today. The Steelers running game had significantly improved with Jonathan Dwyer over the last few weeks, but he is out for today, just like Rashard Mendenhall. This should cause Pittsburgh's running game to go back to the horrible level that they were showing a month ago and so, they won't be able to take advantage of the Giants poor run defense today. Therefore, I expect a very problematic game for the Steelers offense, as Ben Roethlisberger will get pressured a lot, while getting zero support from his team's running game.
Both Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger are having good seasons, but while Eli Manning will be very well protected today and he will get some support from the running game, Ben Roethlisberger will get pressured a lot and he will get zero support from his running game. Therefore, I expect a good win for the Giants win in an emotional week for the NY area. I'm taking the Giants in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 436 New York Giants (-3) @ -125 / 1.80 on Betonline
2-Team 6pts Teaser:
NFL Week 9 - 423 Buffalo Bills @ 424 Houston Texans
NFL Week 9 - 429 Chicago Bears @ 430 Tennessee Titans
Both teams are coming from a bye week and that's the only similarity these two teams share. Houston is having an excellent season, with a very solid well-balanced offense, while their defense has been playing lights out. They should have no problems in putting a lot of points against the Bills poor defense, while they should also put the inconsistent and turnover-prone Ryan Fitzpatrick in a lot of trouble today. Buffalo has a good running game, but Houston has a quite decent run defense as well and I don't expect the Bills to be able to do a lot of damage on offense today. Therefore, I expect a very comfortable win for Houston in here.
Chicago needed a meltdown from Carolina to be able to beat the Panthers at home last week. They didn't look good and it seems clear that Jay Cutler is starting to struggle. However, Tennessee has one of the worst pass defenses in the league and therefore, Jay Cutler should be able to find Brandon Marshall in good position for some big plays. The Bears running game is quite good with Matt Forte and Michael Bush and they should have no problems in outplaying a weak Titans run defense. Therefore, I expect Chicago to have a decent offensive game today. On the other hand, Matt Hasselbeck is a very experienced quarterback, but he has been average this season and Chicago has been great in takeaways, coverage and pass rush, so Hasselbeck should also struggle today. The Bears also have a good run defense and even though Chris Johnson has been quite decent over the past few weeks, he tends to struggle big time against good run defenses, as he keeps trying some big plays that the good defenses simply don't allow. I expect the Bears to bounce back a bit from last week and outplay the Titans in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 424 Houston Texans (-4,5) x 429 Chicago Bears (+2) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 9 - 437 Dallas Cowboys @ 438 Atlanta Falcons
Projected Line: 51 points
I expect this game to be an exciting high-scoring game, similar to the one Dallas played in Baltimore two weeks ago. Tony Romo may be a turnover-prone quarterback, but he is also able to throw some huge passes, as he showed last week against the Giants, where he almost won the game at the end with a big pass to Dez Bryant. The Falcons don't have a good pass defense and I believe Romo will be able to throw some good passes today, even though it is indeed likely that he throws a couple of interceptions as well. The Cowboys running game has been a bit poor this season, however Atlanta's run defense has been a complete mess (#30 with 5.0 rushing yards allowed per game), so don't be surprised if Felix Jones suddenly has a big game tonight, similar to the one he had in Baltimore. Therefore, I expect Dallas to have a good offensive night, with both the passing game and the running game giving the team a decent production.
The problem for Dallas is that Atlanta's passing game is close to unstoppable, especially at home. Matt Ryan is having a huge season, he can throw the football to anywhere in the field and every receiver is playing very well. Dallas has an average pass defense, they have just 3 interceptions in seven games and their pass rush is too weak to put pressure on Matt Ryan, therefore expect the Falcons to pound Dallas big time on their passing game tonight. Atlanta's running game hasn't been able to support the team's passing game with success this season, but this hasn't been a problem due to Atlanta's super efficient passing game.
I expect the Falcons to have another great offensive game, while Dallas also has enough quality in both their passing and running game to keep the score close by taking advantage of a Falcons defense that has some flaws in both their passing and running game. I expect this game to quickly turn into a high scoring affair and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 437/438 Over 47.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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