NBA - 703 Los Angeles Clippers @ 704 Portland Trailblazers
Projected Line: 208 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Unlike the other game of the day, we are in here in front of two teams, where both offenses will have a considerable edge over the opposing defense, on a game that will also have a quite fast pace. One of the plays we lost yesterday against the Over in the game between the Clippers and San Antonio. But that loss wasn't due to a poor offensive game from the Clippers, as they scored 106 points, while shooting 55.6% FG and having 24 fast break points and 54 points in the paint. None of their starters played for more than 30 minutes and our problem was indeed a rare bad offensive game from the Spurs, as Tim Duncan shot 3-8 FG, Tony Parker 2-7 FG and Manu Ginobili 2-8 FG!
Even though the starters were saved a bit yesterday due to a blowout win, the Clippers aren't on a good spot, as they will play a back to back game on the road, who will also be their 5th game in just 7 days! Portland's gameplan will definitely try to take advantage of that and push the pace as much as they can. They have curiously tried that once this season, with the Lakers playing at Portland, after having faced Dallas at home the night before, and that was the fastest pace game of Portland this season. So, the Blazers will try to do the same thing tonight: they will try to run the Clippers out of the gym.
Looking at the matchups, the Clippers' defense will explore Portland's biggest weakness this season. From what I've already watched this season, Portland has some evident issues in the lack of a true center, Damian Lillard also can't defend well and the team has problems in defending transition plays. With their starting PG struggling on defense and their lack of a true center, Portland has a bad pick and roll ball handler defense, as according to mysenergy, they are just #26 in the league in defending this kind of play by allowing 0.92 PPP (Points Per Possession)! So, this is a great matchup for Chris Paul to crush the Blazers with pick and rolls, as not surprisingly, the Clippers is already #1 in the league on pick and roll offense this season with 0.99 PPP!
After allowing just 6 fast break points to the Lakers, a half court team, Portland's poor transition defense was completely exposed in their three following games, where they allowed 23, 18 and 24 fast break points. Their advanced stats also don't lie, as they are #25 on transition defense by allowing 1.24 PPP! On the other hand, the Clippers with their new playing style are crushing the opponents with fast break points and they lead the league on this stat with 21.4 fast break points per game! So, the Clippers will crush Portland tonight by taking advantage of these two clear flaws that the Blazers have on their defense.
On the other side, the Clippers' defense also have some clear flaws that are quite visible at their worst. The truth is that the Clippers turned the ball over too much, gave up way too many offensive rebounds and they also did a poor job defending the three point line. In fact, the Clippers allowed at least 16 offensive rebounds in three of their first five games of the season! That's bad news for them, as Portland has been a very good team in grabbing offensive rebounds on this early season, including a 23 offensive rebounds mark against Dallas on their last game! The Clippers frontcourt gambles too much and they are consistently caught off position and they get torched by the opposing guards' penetrations. Damian Lillard is being the best rookie on the NBA so far and the truth is that Portland is #3 on the league on pick and roll ball handler with 0.93 PPP! LaMarcus Aldridge is a tough matchup for Blake Griffin due to his size and range, while JJ Hickson loves to play against DeAndre Jordan, as he has scored 27, 28 and 29 points on three of his four games against the Clippers!
Portland also had three nice outside shooting games to start the season with 9-20, 9-26 and 10-24 3pts! But they struggled against Dallas with just 5-22 3pts. I believe that was just due to the fact that they had no fresh legs to score efficiently, as they were coming from a back to back game, with the game on the previous game in Houston going to overtime, with four of their starters playing at least 42 minutes! With Portland's gameplan in pushing up the pace to worn out the Clippers and with this new style from the LA team, I expect both offenses to have a considerable edge on the key areas and therefore, I expect this game to become a shootout! Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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