NBA - 703 Toronto Raptors @ 704 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Line: 190 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Oklahoma City is currently leading with some identity problems, something normal after the James Harden trade. Coach Scott Brooks is trying to turn Kevin Durant into a playmaker and so, we see him having great all-around stats, but he hasn't been shooting as much as usual and the Thunder's role players aren't as good as Miami's or San Antonio's role players for example. They also had defensive problems in the second half of their last game against the Hawks at home. By using an undersized lineup, Atlanta was a tough matchup for Oklahoma City, who played with both Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka, two good players who can defend well near the basket, but who lack the ability to give the team some help defense on the outside, just like it happened against Miami in last year's NBA finals. Also notice that Kendrick Perkins had to defend Al Horford, who is much more agile than him, while Serge Ibaka was lost in the defensive rotations and he was caught off guard several times with the Hawks' guards making cuts to the basket.
It shouldn’t be going back and forth,” said Kevin Durant. “We’re a defensive team and we can’t be having that many breakdowns in a game. We just can’t. That goes down the line, it’s from everybody. It’s not just from one person, it’s from everybody on the team. So it’s something to learn from and we’ll be better next game.”
The Thunder will now face Toronto, who has Andrea Bargnani and Jonas Valanciunas on the frontcourt. While the Lithuanian player is a bit raw offensively, so Kendrick Perkins will have a good defensive matchup, Serge Ibaka has the mobility to chase Andrea Bargnani down the court.
Toronto is coming from a great home win over Minnesota, where their backcourt won them the game via both offense and defense! Kyle Lowry had 22 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals, while DeMar DeRozan had 22 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals! The duo also caused havoc in the passing lanes and they were the main reason why Minnesota had 24 turnovers! However, it's important to note that the Raptors still lack offensive fluidity, as after three games, Toronto is just averaging 19.6 assists per game! Toronto's frontcourt struggled with Andrea Bargnani, Jonas Valanciunas, Ed Davis and Amir Johnson shooting a combined of 12-38 (31%) FG!
In tonight's game, Toronto's offense won't have the same freedom they had against the Wolves on their backcourt. One thing is facing Minnesota's backcourt without Ricky Rubio, with both Luke Ridnour and Brandon Roy lacking explosiveness, Juan Barea's terrible defense and the inexperienced rookie Alexey Shved, another completely different thing is facing Oklahoma City, with Thabo Sefolosha defending DeMar DeRozan, while the best matchup of the game will be Russell Westbrook against Kyle Lowry. Westbrook has been quite erratic early on this season, with a lot of aggressiveness but without being assertive. So, Lowry will be a tough opponent for him.
I obviously expect Oklahoma City to have a strong start, with a bounce back spot that will be especially visible on defense, after having allowed almost 50% FG to Atlanta on their last game. Toronto is still dealing with some problems on offense that will help Oklahoma City, while Andrea Bargnani, Jonas Valanciunas and Landry Fields are still quite inconsistent on offense. The Raptors' offensive production is coming from Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan this season, but they will have a very tough matchup in Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha. Therefore, I expect this game to turn into a relatively low scoring game, with the Thunder shutting down the Raptors offense. I'm taking the Under in a Double Dime Play in here.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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