NBA - 713 Golden State Warriors @ 714 Phoenix Suns
Projected Line: 204 points
I watched some preseason games of the Suns and I can say that they will be a run and gun team this season. After the last two seasons, where they kinda slowed down the pace due to having the veterans Steve Nash and Grant Hill leading the team, they were the 6th fastest team in terms of pace during the preseason and coach Alvin Gentry had the luck of being able to almost use the same starting lineup on those games: Goran Dragic - Jared Dudley - Michael Beasley - Luis Scola - Marcin Gortat. At the same time, the Suns showed a lot of problems in defending near the basket and on rebounds, as usual.
The starting unit showed a great offensive flow, with a nice ball movement and good shot selection. The problem was that coach Alvin Gentry would remove the whole starting lineup from the game at the same time and the second unit was always terrible. Their last preseason game against Denver was a clear example of that, with the starters having the following +/- team points: Luis Scola +19; Jared Dudley +23; Michael Beasley +24; Marcin Gortat +19; Goran Dragic +20. At the same time, the bench had the following +/- team points: Markieff Morris -3; Luke Zeller -3; Wesley Johnson -8; Shannon Brown -7; Sebastian Telfair -4. Another way to realize that is to check the Suns' scoring outcomes in the first quarter during the preseason, the quarter where the starters played more time. In their seven preseason games, Phoenix scored 30 - 28 - 28 - 18 (Scola and Dragic played just 6 and 7 minutes respectively) - 21 - 28 - 24 points!
The good news for Phoenix is the fact that their starters will certainly play tonight more than 33 minutes each, so Phoenix won't suffer the offensive droughts that they suffered during the preseason. Stephen Curry will play tonight and I doubt that he can defend a PG like Goran Dragic, with his speed. David Lee is also a terrible defender and Phoenix will run pick and rolls against him for Luis Scola and Marcin Gortat. So, I believe in a good offensive game for the Suns tonight.
Golden State had a solid preseason, with Jarrett Jack being solid in Stephen Curry's absence. Klay Thompson will be one of the most improved players on the league this season, with him being already one of the best shooters in the league. Also David Lee is a very solid offensive player. The Warriors showed some sharp ball movement on the preseason and in a game against the Suns, they were able to shoot 57% FG, with the starters shooting 25-40 (62.5%) FG!
I expect the Suns to set this game to be fast paced, with both teams scoring easily, given the good job they have already shown on offense during the preseason. This 200 points line is the highest of today's games, but we are surely in presence of the game that has the most favorable conditions to be the highest scoring game of the day as well. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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