Sunday, November 4, 2012

NBA Free Premium Play 11/04: Atlanta Hawks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

  
Atlanta  at Oklahoma City 

NBA - 707 Atlanta Hawks @ 708 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Line: 202 points


This is a great spot for Oklahoma City to have a great offensive outburst. After a tough loss in San Antonio, the Thunder played a back to back game against Portland at home and they still scored 106 points in a bad spot. They are now rested for this contest and they will face Atlanta's poor defense, who will be without Josh Smith and Johan Petro, so they will be super undersized in here.

Atlanta is still a work in progress, even though they had a good preseason. However, on their first game of the regular season, it was immediately evident that they have a problem: a bad perimeter defense and especially, their inability of stopping the dribble penetration of the opposing guards, something that James Harden took advantage to completely pound them with 14-19 FG, 15-17 FT and 45 points! Without Josh Smith's versatility, how will Atlanta stop Russell Westbrook? They won't! Very few teams can limit Westbrook's high speed game and Atlanta isn't certainly one of them right now.

The Hawks also had a new identity on offense, with a much quicker pace than usual. In fact, they scored an incredible 33 fast break points against Houston, while their outside shooting is terrific! Kendrick Perkins is limited with a leg injury and I don't believe he will play major minutes tonight, so with Atlanta playing with an undersized lineup, we will watch Kevin Durant at the PF position for major minutes tonight, something that indicates that the Thunder will play small ball in here, something that improves their offense. I expect a fast paced game in here, with both teams having a good offensive night, especially Oklahoma City, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 198.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

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