MLB Premium Play 08/19: Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles

MLB - 913 Tampa Bay Rays @ 914 Baltimore Orioles

(Starting Pitchers: D. Price vs C. Tillman)

The Rays will start David Price tonight, who was coming from four great starts in a row with one earned run or less allowed on each start until he allowed four earned runs against Seattle on his last outing. However, he had a 1.90 FIP and 3.47 xFIP in that outing, so that wasn't a very poor outing for Price. It was just bad timing, as Price had a 7/1 K/BB ratio against the Mariners. Baltimore's offense is just #19 versus LH pitchers, so I believe Price will bounce back tonight against the Orioles.

Chris Tillman will start for Baltimore tonight and he is coming from two earned runs allowed in six innings against Arizona last Wednesday. Tillman has been quite inconsistent lately by alternating quality starts with poor ones. On his last three games, he got crushed against Seattle at home with six earned runs allowed in 5.1 innings, and then bounced back at San Francisco and Arizona with two and one earned runs allowed. Tampa Bay has been traditionally a tough matchup for Tillman and so, I expect the Rays to put him in trouble once again tonight. I see a clear SP edge favoring Tampa Bay tonight and looking at all of the factors together, I expect the Rays to pick up a comfortable win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 913 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ D. Price) @ -123 / 1.81 on Bovada 

MLB Premium Play 08/14: Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 971 Seattle Mariners @ 972 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: A. Harang vs D. Price)

Tampa Bay is 0-6 on their last six games, so they will be desperate for a win tonight. They will start David Price tonight, who has allowed just 0, 1, 1 and 1 earned runs on his last four starts. He will have a favorable matchup against Seattle's offense tonight, who struggles against LH pitchers by being just #23 in the league. The Mariners have a bunch of LH batters on the lineup and Price dominates LH batters with .212 BA, .246 wOBA, 3.00 FIP and 2.96 xFIP! Therefore, I believe Price will be dominant once again tonight.

Aaron Harang will start for Seattle and he was crushed by Toronto last Wednesday by allowing seven runs in two innings. This was his second game in a row where he allowed seven runs. His command has been awful, with no strikeouts and a bunch of homeruns allowed. Not even the fact that he pitches his home games at Seattle is preventing him from having a 12.8% HR/FB, so he is even more attackable on the road. Tampa Bay is fired up for tonight's game and they have a huge SP edge in here. Therefore, I expect an easy win for the Rays and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 972 Tampa Bay Rays RL -1.5 (w/ D. Price) @ -130 / 1.77 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 08/09: Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB - 929 Tampa Bay Rays @ 930 Los Angeles Dodgers

(Starting Pitchers: D. Price vs C. Capuano)

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

This isn't a good spot for the LA Dodgers, as this will be their first home game after a road trip, without any day off in the middle. On the other hand, Tampa Bay will come to this game in bounce back mode, after losing both games of a 2-games series against Arizona. The Rays will start David Price tonight, who held the Giants to one run in nine innings last Saturday. He has been pitching well since he returned from the DL, but he has been even better as of late, with dominant performances at Boston. Price is now attacking more the strike zone, something that is allowing him to go further on his outings. The main problem with that has been the high HR/FB% with 13.1%, but that won't be a problem at the Dodgers Stadium. The Dodgers won't start Hanley Ramirez, Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford tonight, so Price should dominate in here.

Chris Capuano will start for the Dodgers tonight and he is coming from six shutout innings last Saturday against the Cubs. He has been super inconsistent as of late by getting pounded big time or being simply excellent on his outings. He has been facing poor hitting teams versus LH pitchers lately: Cubs #22; Cincinnati #11; Toronto #17; Colorado twice #28; Philadelphia #18. Things will be much different tonight against Tampa Bay, the team that is #1 in the league on hitting versus LH pitchers! Capuano struggles against RH batters (.283 BA, .354 wOBA and 4.38 FIP), so the Rays will use a lineup loaded of RH batters to take advantage of that. With the Rays having a clear SP edge and a spot edge, I believe they will pick up a comfortable win tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking Tampa Bay tonight on a Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 929 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ D. Price) @ -141 / 1.71 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 07/27: Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

MLB - 967 Tampa Bay Rays @ 968 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: C. Archer vs I. Nova)

Tampa Bay took advantage yesterday of the fact that they have the best offense in the league versus LH pitchers and pounded C.C. Sabathia. Even though it was an easy win for the Rays, it was interesting to see the Yankees's offense to be decent with six runs in eleven hits! For today's game, I expect things to be different, as the Yankees will have a SP edge in here. Ivan Nova will start for them and he has been very solid since he returned from the DL. He had a FIP and xFIP below 3.50 in June and July, while also having K% numbers above 20%! This is particularly impressive, as Nova had a tough schedule with starts against Tampa Bay, Baltimore and even a road start at Texas on his last outing. Unlike Sabathia, Nova is currently in good form and he should have a good outing in here.

On the other hand, the Rays will start Chris Archer, who is currently on my fade alert list. I faded him on his last outing at Toronto by saying that his three previous "quality" outings in a row had happened against favorable matchup, as he faced Houston twice and also Minnesota. Archer allowed just one earned run against the Blue Jays, but his 1/4 K/BB ratio was shockingly bad. This is why Archer had a 4.90 FIP and 7.70 xFIP in that game. Therefore, I expect Archer to finally start regressing today, especially now that the Yankees are showing some offensive life once again. So, I'll be taking the NY team as home underdogs today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 968 New York Yankees ML (w/ I. Nova) @ +104 / 2.04 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 07/26: Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

MLB - 919 Tampa Bay Rays @ 920 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: J. Hellickson vs C. Sabathia)

Tampa Bay's offense is currently red hot and they are #1 in the league on hitting versus LH pitchers! In fact, they are hitting .291 BA versus LH pitchers over their last 10 games! They will face C.C. Sabathia, who has been struggling with his mechanics lately. In fact, he had 8.65, 5.30 and 5.27 FIP on his last three outings, very poor numbers! Sabathia's problems are just mechanical, as he has been lacking some speed on his pitches as well and the red hot Rays will take advantage of that tonight.

On the other side, Jeremy Hellickson will start for Tampa Bay and he has been on a roll lately. He had a tough schedule by facing Toronto twice, Detroit and Boston in four of his last six games, but he was excellent in all of these games! He is yet to face the Yankees this season and with the NY team's offense struggling all season long (#26 in the league L14 days), I can only expect Hellickson to have another good start tonight. I believe Tampa Bay will have a SP and offensive edge in here, so I'll be taking them tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 919 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ J. Hellickson) @ -105 / 1.95 on 5Dimes

MLB Free Premium Play 07/19: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay  at Toronto

MLB - 965 Tampa Bay Rays @ 966 Toronto Blue Jays (Starting Pitchers: D. Price vs E. Rogers) We have Toronto being clearly underrated in here, especially regarding the pitching matchup. Since he returned from the DL, David Price allowed 2, 1 and 0 earned runs on his three starts. That seems really good, but he faced Houston twice and the White Sox! This means that he had the 4th easiest schedule for a SP on the last three starts! Price dominated struggling offenses that are also below the league average in K% and BB%. Now at Toronto, things will be much tougher for Price and I expect him to struggle a lot more tonight. On the other hand, Esmil Rogers will start for the Blue Jays and he has been the best SP of the team for a while, with great advanced numbers (3.67 FIP + 3.38 xFIP)! He faced Cleveland, Detroit and Boston on his last three outings and these are exactly the three best offenses in the league! Rogers struggled against Detroit, but he dominated at Cleveland and Boston! With James Loney and Yunel Escobar out of Tampa Bay's lineup, I believe Toronto has a great chance to be highly competitive tonight and perhaps even win the game outright. Therefore, I'll be taking the Blue Jays on the runline in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Toronto Blue Jays RL +1.5 (w/ E. Rogers) @ -135 / 1.74 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 07/14: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 923 Houston Astros @ 924 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: E. Bedard vs C. Archer)

Erik Bedard will start for Houston today and he has allowed five runs (four earned) on 6.1 innings last Sunday against Texas. Prior to that, he had another poor outing against the Rays, with four earned runs allowed in 5.1 innings, while having a terrible 3/6 K/BB ratio. Bedard's command is out of control right now and he has walked a total of 11 batters on his last two outings! Now on the road against the #1 team in the league in hitting versus LH pitchers, this screams disaster for Bedard today.

The Rays will start Chris Archer, who is coming from holding the Twins to one unearned run in six innings last Tuesday. Archer has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last seven outings, in a clear sign that he is currently in very good form. He is fighting to stay in the rotation during the second half of the season and after a super tough schedule, where he faced Boston (x3), Baltimore (x2), the NY Yankees and Detroit, he is now on an easier span of games, as he faced the Twins and he will now face Houston. We have in here a tremendous SP edge for the Rays, while Tampa Bay's lineup will also pound another LH pitcher today, especially when Bedard is struggling so much right now. I can only expect an easy win for the Rays today and so, I'll be taking them on the runline in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 924 Tampa Bay Rays RL -1.5 (w/ C. Archer) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 07/13: Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 969 Houston Astros @ 970 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: D. Keuchel vs R. Hernandez)

Yesterday's shocking loss was certainly a lesson for Tampa Bay. It was a clear letdown spot for them. The Rays were coming from two straight sweeps against the White Sox and Minnesota, so they overlooked the lowly Astros, especially with an unknown SP on the mount last night, while they had their own ace playing at the same time. It's important to note that Houston's lineup is #7 in the league versus LH pitchers, while they are #29 versus RH pitchers. This will be a revenge game for Tampa Bay today, so this is a good spot for an offensive bounce back for them. Tampa Bay is by far the best offensive team in the league versus LH pitchers this season and so, they will have in the struggling Dallas Keuchel an easy target. Keuchel got crushed by the Rays two weeks ago and their numbers against RH batters (4.83 FIP and 4.22 xFIP) are very poor. Therefore, Keuchel will struggle once again against the Rays today.

On the other hand, Roberto Hernandez is coming from allowing three runs in six innings against the Twins. He hasn't been great as of late, but he isn't being disastrous neither. Now against Houston, I expect him to have a nice matchup in the Astros. Houston has the second lowest wOBA against righties at .284 and they also have the highest strikeout rate against them at 25%! With Hernandez limiting the damage today and with the Rays' lineup bouncing back against the struggling Keuchel, I can only expect an easy win for Tampa Bay today and therefore, I'll be taking them on the runline in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 970 Tampa Bay Rays RL -1.5 (w/ R. Hernandez) @ -119 / 1.84 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 07/08: Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 919 Minnesota Twins @ 920 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: S. Deduno vs R. Hernandez)

Tampa Bay will start Roberto Hernandez tonight, who allowed three runs on six innings against the Astros last Wednesday. Hernandez is particularly terrible versus LH batters with .362 wOBA, 5.53 FIP and 4.13 xFIP, therefore Minnesota's lineup for tonight will put in jeopardy:

1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B

2. Joe Mauer (L) C

3. Ryan Doumit (S) DH

4. Justin Morneau (L) 1B

5. Trevor Plouffe (R) 3B

6. Oswaldo Arcia (L) LF

7. Chris Parmelee (L) RF

8. Aaron Hicks (S) CF

9. Pedro Florimon (S) SS

According to my numbers, Hernandez is coming from four poor outings in a row, with two of them being against subpar offenses like Houston and the Yankees. On the other hand, Minnesota will be starting Samuel Deduno tonight, who allowed just one run on seven innings against the Royals last Thursday. Deduno is a groundball machine, who is #3 in the league on GB/FB with 3.13! Tampa Bay's offense is #3 in the league on FB% with 38.3%, so Deduno is a terrible matchup for them. Deduno has been very solid lately, with two starts being particularly good, as he faced two top teams in Cleveland and Detroit. I believe Deduno will have a nice outing tonight, while Hernandez will struggle, so I see great value on the Twins for tonight.

 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 919 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ S. Deduno) @ +152 / 2.52 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 07/01: Tampa Bay Rays @ Houston Astros

MLB - 961 Tampa Bay Rays @ 962 Houston Astros

(Starting Pitchers: M. Moore vs D. Keuchel)

The Rays will start Matt Moore tonight, while the Astros will start Dallas Keuchel. Both pitchers are left-handed and these are great news for both offenses, as the Rays are #1 in the league versus LH pitchers, while Houston is #4! Matt Moore will be on an ultimate fade spot tonight, as he is coming from an 120-pitches start against Toronto. He had 11 strikeouts and that was great, but it's also important to mention that he also walked six batters! In fact, he walked 6, 3 and 4 batters on his last three outings. Now against a very good hitting team versus LH pitchers, I expect Moore to struggle tonight.

On the other side, the Rays' offense has been struggling to generate some runs lately, but they are coming from facing Detroit's aces and the red hot pitching staff of the Blue Jays as well. They will now face Dallas Keuchel, who started three games in June and where he played well with three, two and one run allowed. But he faced the Cubs, the White Sox and Seattle, three teams that are very far from the level of Tampa Bay's lineup on hitting versus LH pitchers. Therefore, I expect Keuchel to struggle in here. With both pitchers struggling, I believe this will be a high scoring contest and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 961/962 Over 8 (w/ M. Moore & D. Keuchel) @ -125 / 1.80 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/29: Detroit Tigers @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 971 Detroit Tigers @ 972 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: J. Verlander vs C. Archer)

Justin Verlander will start for Detroit tonight and his season isn't being very good, especially in comparison to his performances on the previous seasons. However, he faced four top offenses (Boston, Baltimore, Cleveland, Baltimore again) on his last five games, so his schedule isn't being easy at all. Tampa Bay's offense has been struggling as of late with just one game on his last ten where they hit better than .300 BA! With Evan Longoria out tonight, things will get even tougher for the Rays, so I expect Verlander to dominate in here.

The Rays will be starting Chris Archer tonight, who has been also having a tough schedule by facing the Yankees on the road, the Red Sox on the road, then Boston and Baltimore at home and Cleveland on the road! His problem have been the walks and of course, the high pitch counts. This will be very tough for him, as Detroit is a top team in both BB% and K%, so they will wait for Archer to make some errors and walk some batters. With Verlander dominating on the other side, I expect the Tigers to pick up an easy win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 971 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ J. Verlander) @ -137 / 1.73 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 06/25: Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 965 Toronto Blue Jays @ 966 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: M. Buehrle vs M. Moore)

We have a clear mismatch on pitching in here favoring Toronto. Mark Buehrle is dominating, even though he faced tough opponents on his last three outings: Texas (x2) and Colorado! He is currently super confident. After a 5.41 FIP in April, he posted a 4.50 FIP in May and he is currently having a 3.41 FIP in June. On the other hand, Matt Moore will start for the Rays. His command problems continue, but he got away with that on his last outing, where he posted a win at NY against the Yankees. However, he had a 4/3 K/BB ratio with 99 pitches on just 6.1 innings! This says a lot about his problems. Moore faced Toronto earlier on the season and he had command problems once again with 2/4 K/BB, where he posted a 3.60 ERA, but his advanced stats were much tougher: 7.25 FIP and 6.60 xFIP! The difference is that the Blue Jays are now hitting much better than they were last month, so Toronto have great value as underdogs tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Canadian team in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 965 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ M. Buehrle) @ +125 / 2.25 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/16: Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 917 Kansas City Royals @ 918 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: W. Davis vs R. Hernandez)

Tampa Bay finally won a game against Kansas City yesterday. The Rays will start Wade Davis today, who is coming from a last start against Boston, where he threw 122 pitches, and he had just 4 days of rest for today's game. So, I don't expect Hernandez to be fully fresh for today. He has the changeup as his strong pitch and he has indeed some excellent numbers against RH batters (2.47 FIP and 2.45 xFIP), however his numbers are really poor against LH batters (6.03 FIP and 4.30 xFIP)! Kansas City may have five lefties on the lineup today, so they will be a tough matchup for him, on an outing where Hernandez won't be fully rested. This is the recipe for disaster in my opinion.

On the other hand, Kansas City will start Wade Davis, who has been inconsistent as of late with three bad starts on his last ten games, where he allowed 8, 7 and 6 runs! However, he looked good on his last two starts against Minnesota and Detroit! This will be Davis's first start against his former team, so he will surely be fired up for today. Considering the fact that Hernandez is on a poor spot and the Rays' bullpen will be tired as well, I believe Davis with a decent outing and the Royals' in-form lineup have a great chance of turning this game into a very competitive one at least.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917 Kansas City Royals RL +1 (w/ W. Davis) @ -108 / 1.93 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 06/15: Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 969 Kansas City Royals @ 970 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: J. Guthrie vs A. Cobb)

Kansas City keeps winning and they are already 32-33 on the standings! His great pitching continues to be the key for that, combined with some clutch hitting in some innings. Jeremy Guthrie will start for them today and after three poor outings, where he allowed 6, 6 and 5 runs, he has bounced back with three straight good outings, where he allowed just 2, 1 and 2 runs! Two of those starts were against Detroit and St Louis, two top offenses! His performance against Detroit was impressive, as he didn't have a single strikeout in that game!

The Rays will be starting Alex Cobb, who is coming from his worst start of the season against Boston, where he allowed six runs in four innings. He is coming from two outings against Detroit and Boston, two of the toughest opponents that he can face. Now against the less dangerous Royals, I expect Cobb to bounce back, as Kansas City is just #28 in the league against RH pitchers with just .253 BA on their last 10 games! Cobb struggled at Kansas City earlier on this season, but that was poor luck, as he had a .429 BABIP on that outing. 

I expect both Guthrie and Cobb to dominate today, turning this game into a low scoring contest, unlike what happened on the first two games of this series, due to a big inning by the Royals in each game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969/970 Under 7,5 (w/ J. Guthrie & A. Cobb) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 06/14: Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 917 Kansas City Royals @ 918 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: L. Mendoza vs M. Moore) 

Kansas City has been winning games due to some great pitching from both their starting pitchers and bullpen. They are coming from a big win against the Rays yesterday, where not only their pitching was great, as they also had some great clutch hitting with eight runs on a single inning! The Royals will face Matt Moore tonight, whose luck has ran out on his last two outings with eight and six runs allowed. Curiously, these two poor outings were after a sequence of four games where he pitched well. The problem for Moore is that Kansas City is currently very confident and they are hitting much better versus LH pitchers this season than against RH pitchers.

The Royals will start Luis Mendoza, who has been solid lately with 0, 3, 1, 1, 2, 3 and 3 runs allowed on his last seven outings. However, it's important to note that his command has been poor with 3/1, 1/3, 5/3 and 2/4 K/BB ratios on his last four outings! Mendoza faced the Rays earlier on this season and he got pounded with six runs allowed in just four innings. Tampa Bay's offense is a bad matchup for him, as they are a patient team, so they force a lot of walks, while they are also good in avoiding getting struck out. With Mendoza having command issues, the Rays will certainly take advantage of that. Mendoza throws 67% fastballs and 28% curveballs and the Rays are #8 and #6 respectively in hitting against these pitches. 

With both Mendoza and Moore likely to struggle tonight, I expect this game to be a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917/918 Over 8 (w/ L. Mendoza & M. Moore) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Play 06/13: Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 963 Kansas City Royals @ 964 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: E. Santana vs J. Hellickson)

We have in here a good edge in terms of offense and starting pitcher favoring the Rays tonight. Erwin Santana has been solid lately, but he has been alternating great quality starts that have been happening against teams that aren't good versus RH pitchers like Houston (#28) and Oakland (#15), with the exception being a good start at Texas. The problem for Santana is that he has been struggling against power lineups, where he has been struggling by allowing some homeruns, a clear problem for him: 3 HR's vs St Louis; 4 HR's vs LA Angels; 2 HR's vs NY Yankees. Tampa Bay's offense is a power lineup and they are #10 in the league versus RH pitchers and #7 on ISO (Isolated Power) with .166 this season and .184 over the last 14 days! If we add to this the fact that the Rays' hitters know Santana very well (.286 BA and .875 OPS against him on 126 AB's), we can be sure that Santana will struggle tonight.

On the other side, Kansas City has been playing well and they are coming from a nice home span, where they went 7-2 on those games. However, those wins were mostly due some great pitching. Their starting pitchers never allowed more than three runs to their opponents on these games, but offensively wise, the Royals has been struggling, especially against RH pitchers, with just .219 BA over the last 10 games and a poor .653 OPS (#29) for the season. Jeremy Hellickson struggled heavily early in the season, but he has been pitching much better lately. He has faced Baltimore (#3 vs RHP), Cleveland (#12 vs RHP) and Toronto (#8 vs RHP) in three of his last four outings, but he allowed just 0, 3 and 2 ER on these outings respectively! Hellickson faced Kansas City in early May and he struggled with four runs allowed in five innings, but now that he is living his best moment of the season so far, I expect him to dominate the Royals tonight, helping the Rays in getting an easy win in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 964 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ J. Hellickson) @ -142 / 1.70 on Bovada

MLB Premium Play 05/28: Miami Marlins @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 965 Miami Marlins @ 966 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: K. Slowey vs J. Hellickson)

I believe Kevin Slowey will have a tough time tonight against the Rays. He is an extreme flyball pitcher with a 42.3% FB% vs 30.3% GB% and of course his worst starts of the season are the ones where he allowed homeruns like against Arizona or at LA against the Dodgers. Tampa Bay is #3 in the league on FB% with 38.6% and their offense has been improving as the season goes by and they are hitting .275 BA on their last 10 games against RH pitchers! Therefore, I expect Slowey to have a lot of problems tonight.

On the other hand, Jeremy Hellickson has been quite unlucky this season with a 5.37 ERA, but with a 4.64 FIP and 4.20 xFIP! Homeruns have been his biggest problem this season, but the truth is that Miami is dead last in the league on HR/FB rate with just 3.9%! Hellickson is coming from a start at Toronto, where he allowed just two earned runs in eight innings. If we consider how red hot the Blue Jays have been this season, this was definitely a great start for Hellickson! Now against one of the worst offenses in the league, I expect him to have another dominant outing tonight. 

Therefore, I expect Slowey to struggle and Hellickson to dominate, so I expect an easy win for Tampa Bay tonight. I'm taking them tonight on the runline.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Tampa Bay Rays RL -1.5 (w/ J. Hellickson) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5 Dimes

MLB Premium Play 05/24: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 969 New York Yankees @ 970 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: D. Phelps vs R. Hernandez)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

I took Roberto Hernandez on his last start at Baltimore and I was lucky because he only pitched for two innings, as he allowed five runs and eight hits during that span. Fortunately for us, Baltimore's bullpen choked the game away at the end. Hernandez's main issue has been with homeruns. His best pitch is the changeup and he has a nice matchup tonight, as the Yankees are just #19 on hitting against those this season. Hernandez hasn't pitched against the Yankees since 2011, so I believe he has a bit of surprise factor going on tonight and this will allow him to bounce back nicely at home. 

On the other side, David Phelps is coming from two starts where he threw 115 and 113 pitches! He had 8/3 and 7/5 K/BB ratios in those outings, but considering that he faced the Blue Jays and the Indians in those starts, I can't say that he was terrible on those games. Phelps's main pitch is the cutter, but he will struggle tonight as Tampa Bay is #2 in the league in hitting against those. I see the Rays being underrated in here, as Hernandez isn't a weaker pitcher than Phelps, while he actually has a better matchup tonight and the Rays' lineup is certainly hitting better than the Yankees right now. If we add the home factor, I expect Tampa Bay to pick up a nice win over their divisional rivals in here! So, I'll be taking it on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 970 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ R. Hernandez) @ -113 / 1.89 on Betonline

MLB Premium Play 04/28: Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox

MLB - 971 Tampa Bay Rays @ 972 Chicago White Sox

(Starting Pitchers: D. Price vs D. Axelrod)

The Rays had a big offensive game yesterday, so I expect them to be confident for today, while the White Sox's bullpen is tired after a big workload last night. David Price had a terrible first outing of the season, but then he was much better on the following three starts against good competition like Boston, Baltimore and the NY Yankees, even though he is yet to win a decision this season, with 3.50, 3.16 and 1.75 FIP! His BABIP numbers are insanely high and this is why he has allowed so many runs on this early season. 

On the other hand, even though Dylan Axelrod has been at an acceptable level, he has been having a really low BABIP with .273! His pitch count are generally high due to his inability to strikeout batters and he is yet to pass the 6th inning this season, something that will force his team's tired bullpen to get into action early. With the Rays having a SP edge in here and with Tampa Bay also coming from a much needed breakout game yesterday, I expect them to pick up a good win today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 971 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ D. Price) @ -137 / 1.73 on 5Dimes

MLB Premium Play 04/24: New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

MLB - 975 New York Yankees @ 976 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: A. Pettitte vs A. Cobb)

Andy Pettitte missed a start due to back spasms, but then looked good at Toronto. However, his advanced stats say that he is overrated, looking at the three starts he has already had this season. His 5.02 FIP and 3.83 FIP on his last two outings were clearly worse than his ERA numbers. On a potential pitching duel with Alex Cobb, I expect the Rays's pitcher to get the upperhand. 

Just like it happens with Pettitte, Cobb is a groundball machine and so, he is a tough matchup for the Yankees's power lineup. He showed some excellent poise on his last start against Oakland, where he allowed 3ER, even though he allowed 10 hits. I expect him to have another decent showing against the Yankees today, while the Rays should cause some damage on Pettitte, as he is likely to regress a bit today, especially while facing a confident Rays's lineup. Therefore, I'll be taking Tampa Bay tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 976 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ A. Cobb) @ -128 / 1.78 on Bovada