Projected Line: 216 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 511/512 Over 209.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Denver is now rolling in both ends of the floor. They can shutdown the league's best teams when it's necessary or they can also run over lowly teams with their offense. Last Thursday, they did a combo of these two things: the Nuggets had a remarkable offensive rating of 126.3 against the Clippers, thanks to shooting 55.8% FG and 11-23 3pts, while committing just 13 turnovers. On the other hand, they held the Clippers to just 42.4% FG and 17 points in the final quarter.
Tonight the Nuggets will face the lowly and shorthanded Wolves and so, they won't need a great defensive effort to beat them and this is exactly the mindset that I'm expecting from Denver tonight. On offense, Denver will just ease past the Timberwolves. Nikola Pekovic and Andrei Kirilenko are still out and the Wolves don't have any available decent big man right now. On the other hand, the good news if that their backcourt is healthy with Ricky Rubio, Luke Ridnour, J.J. Barea and Alexey Shved, so Coach Adelman has no other option than playing super small with a 3-guard lineup for the majority of the games. The result of that is the fact that Minnesota can't stop their opponents from scoring easy points down low: Oklahoma City scored 54 points in the paint against them, Phoenix also scored 54, Portland 56 and Miami 58! It's not a surprise to see that the Wolves have allowed their opponents to shoot 70% FG at the rim on their last ten games! Now against the league's best team in scoring at the paint, Minnesota is going to get pounded big time tonight near the basket.
On the other end, the Wolves with their small lineup are now almost a run and gun team. According to my numbers, their pace factor for the season is 91.1, but they averaged a pace factor of 92.8 on their last ten games! Their volume of transition plays for the season is 12%, but that percentage went up to 16% on their last 10 games. Obviously, we can see this transformation on the fast break points scored per game, where they average 11.7 points for the season, but they have scored an average of 15.2 points over their last 10 games! On a very fast paced game tonight, Minnesota will have plenty of opportunities to score in transition, especially with the Nuggets not being focused on defense tonight. Therefore, we will have a fast paced game in here with Denver crushing Minnesota on the down low and with the Wolves surprising the Nuggets with their guard rotation to also have a decent offensive game. I expect a very high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on a Double Dime Play!
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