NBA - 509 Houston Rockets @ 510 Phoenix Suns
Projected Line: 207 points
Houston will play their third game in four nights tonight, after having played at Golden State last night. They played at Dallas last Wednesday on a back and forth game, where Chandler Parsons played 43 minutes, James Harden 39 minutes and the rest of the players had limited numbers. Last night against the Warriors, Houston made a huge effort with James Harden and Chandler Parsons playing 42 minutes, Omer Asik 39 minutes and Jeremy Lin 37 minutes! Even more important than that, both teams surprisingly made a huge effort on defense and with such effort, they couldn't have big offensive numbers, especially down the stretch where both the Rockets and the Warriors had no legs. A tired Rockets team can easily struggle, as they need fresh legs to shoot their treys and execute their transition plays.
This is why the Rockets don't have good offensive numbers in bad spots. On back to back games on the road this season, Houston is averaging just an offensive rating of 102.7, while shooting just 33.3% 3pts! This is impressive considering they're averaging for the season an offensive rating of 115.8 and 38.7% 3pts. To make things worse for Houston tonight, their game yesterday was an ESPN game that started at 10:30 PM EST and they will play at Phoenix tonight at 9PM EST!
On the other side, Phoenix will also be playing their third game in four nights, having played at Sacramento last night. That game was a shootout, with both teams not defending at all. The game had a lot of fast break points, loads of points at the paint and of course, after scoring just 71 points against Toronto, the Suns scored 112 points against the Kings. As weak as the Rockets's defense is, they will definitely show a bigger defensive effort tonight than Sacramento showed yesterday. Besides that, I don't believe the Suns will be able to have two great offensive games in consecutive days. Last night, both Morris brothers shot 50% FG, Wes Johnson shot 7-14 FG and even Michael Beasley shot 10-21 FG! With a bit of defensive pressure from the Rockets tonight, Phoenix's offense immediately struggles, as they don't have a lot of offensive skills.
I don't believe this game will be a typical shootout due to the poor spots of both teams and the lack of offensive quality from Phoenix. Therefore, looking at the current totals line, I clearly have enough edge to take the Under in here and that's exactly what I'm going to do.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 211,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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