Projected Line: Denver by 1 point
Tonight's big game puts two powerhouse teams from the West going head to head. The narrative for this game is that this is a schedule loss for the Clippers, as they are on a back to back game and they will playing in such spot at Denver tonight, the toughest place to play a back to back game. However, I think the spot isn't that bad for the Clippers tonight. They played against Milwaukee last night and the game didn't have a lot of intensity. It was all very easy for the Clippers, who toyed with the Bucks the whole game. That allowed Coach Del Negro to rotate the team with Chris Paul playing 32 minutes and Blake Griffin 33 minutes, while all the other players were on court for less than 30 minutes! So, we aren't in front of a back to back spot where the Clippers's top players were on the court for over 40 minutes last night. Besides that, the Clippers have one of the deepest benches in the league.
We are in front of two explosive teams that had a deep bench. This won't be the typical Nuggets game, where they hang around with the opposing starters and then, they use their bench to set an extra gear and outplay their opponents due to their superior depth. The Clippers's bench is as good as the Nuggets's bench, so Denver won't be able to do their usual difference on the second unit tonight. The big difference on this game is the Clippers's superior outside shooting. Besides that, both teams rebound well, they can force turnovers, they can pound their opponents down low, even though Denver is a bit better on this area, something that is more than compensated with the Clippers's much better jump shooting skills.
With this edge and with Chris Paul down the stretch, I believe this game will be a tight game and decided on the last possession. Both teams have defeated the other quite comfortably at their home earlier on the season, including a win by the Nuggets at home over the Clippers by 92-78 in New Year's Day. This was the game that ended with the Clippers's winning streak. First of all, the spot for the LA team at the time was much worse than it is tonight, as not only it was also a back to back game, as the Clippers had played two physical games on a home-home series against Utah and with the emotional tiredness from defending the streak against the Jazz, they went to Denver on a clear physical and emotional letdown. This won't happen tonight, where I expect the Clippers to be a very competitive underdog. Therefore, I'll be taking the LA team tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Los Angeles Clippers (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment