Thursday, March 7, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 03/07: Oklahoma City Thunder @ New York Knicks

  
Oklahoma City  at New York 
NBA - 501 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 502 New York Knicks

Projected Line: 202 points


We are in front of two teams that aren't in a good spot for tonight. The Knicks will be playing their fourth game in five days and that's a major concern for a team that is the oldest in the league and has their best player Carmelo Anthony banged up and questionable for tonight. On the other side, even though this isn't a back to back game for Oklahoma City, they traveled all over the country during the past week. They played at Denver, then they went to LA to face the Clippers, they played at home and now, they are at New York to face the Knicks.

These two teams have very different styles, as the Knicks is one of the slowest paced teams in the league, while the Thunder are very explosive. However, I expect this game to be played the Knicks way. The reason for that is simply. The Knicks commit a low number of turnovers, even though they haven't been great on this area lately with 18, 16 and 21 turnovers committed over their last three games, they spend a lot of time on their offensive sets, something that combined with their low number of turnovers makes it difficult for their opponents to score off turnovers against them. The Knicks's offense is limited to their 3pts shooting, but the Thunder's defense has been improving on this are lately with 33.6% 3pts allowed over their last five games - the #5 best mark in the league!

On the other hand, Oklahoma City is coming from an almost perfect game against the Lakers last Tuesday night, with an offensive rating of 134.4 and an historic low number of turnovers with just two! It will be impossible for them to repeat such performance tonight, as the Lakers's defense has been incredibly bad lately, something that Coach Woodson doesn't allow to happen with the Knicks. He has made several changes on the lineups always trying to improve the team's defense and tonight that won't be an exception. Therefore, I expect a slow paced contest with the bad spots of both teams removing some of the offensive efficiency. I expect a relatively low scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 206,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

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