NBA - 713 Washington Wizards @ 714 Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Line: 184 points
Minnesota is once again conditioned with injured. Nikola Pekovic won't play tonight and without him, the Wolves lose their offensive reference down low. Even with Miami on a terrible spot and without any great interior presence, Minnesota was only able to shoot 14-26 at the rim! Already on their game at Phoenix, it was clear that everything is perimeter based for them, something terrible considering they are by far the worst 3pts shooting team in the league. Ricky Rubio is forced to shoot a lot of times and he isn't a good shooter at all. They have a 60% volume over their last five games on pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups and transitions. This is problematic for a team that is horrible on the first two areas and average on transitions with 1.09 PPP. Now against a good Wizards's defense that is #9 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #4 on transition defense and #10 on spot up defense, Minnesota will heavily struggle to score tonight.
On the other hand, I expect Washington's offense to struggle a lot tonight because of the turnovers. They are very turnover-prone (19, 17, 17, 18, 15, 20, 15, 14 and 16 turnovers over their last 9 games), with John Wall very easily losing control of the game. With Wall struggling, Washington is unable to feed Nene Hilario and Emeka Okafor down low and the team's offense becomes very ugly quickly. Bradley Beal's absence tonight is a huge deal, as he is the team's best shooter by far. This will force Trevor Ariza and Cartier Martin to play more time tonight. Minnesota with their three-guards lineup have been very good on forcing turnovers and Miami has a season high of turnovers against them last Monday. Therefore, I expect both teams to struggle offensively tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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