Projected Line: 180 points
Philadelphia has been losing a lot lately. They lack depth and talent to be a winning team. Thaddeus Young's injury was a huge blow for them, but the good news is that he has returned to the lineup and he has been playing at a nice level. Therefore, Philadelphia won't be an easy opponent for Boston. The two teams are similar on offense, with both teams being two of the teams that attempt more long range shots from 16-23 feet in the league, while having a low volume at the rim. The difference is that Boston's long range shooting is much more efficient than the Sixers's. Philadelphia's offense depends a lot from three players: Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner and Thaddeus Young. Now against the Celtics's defense, these three players will have a tough task. We have possibly the best defensive PG in the league defending Holiday today, while the Celtics are #1 in the league in pick and roll ball handler defense. Courtney Lee is a good defender and he should do a good job on Evan Turner, while the same should happen with Kevin Garnett defending Thaddeus Young. The Sixers aren't a good transition team (#27 in the league with 1.06 PPP), so on half court sets, Philadelphia's offense will have a lot of problems lately. In fact, they are averaging an offensive rate of 100.4 over their last 10 games and 98.4 on their last 5 games!
On the other hand, Philadelphia has good conditions to have a nice defensive job today. This new look Celtics team likes to take advantage of their chances to score in transition. Note that over their last 5 games, they scored at least 13 fast break points in every game, while averaging 17.4 fast break points over this 5-games span. However, the Sixers has been a great transition defense this season, as they are #5 in the league with just 1.07 PPP allowed! The Sixers's main defensive problem has been in guarding big men, but Boston doesn't have a dominant big man to take advantage of that. Therefore, I expect a very low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 184 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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