NBA - 811 Detroit Pistons @ 812 San Antonio Spurs
Projected Line: 196 points
San Antonio has received bad news, as they will be without Tony Parker for a month, while Gary Neal, Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson will be also out for tonight. The Spurs had problems in crushing Sacramento on their last game, in a game where its pace was higher than 100 and where the Spurs's offense had 41 assists! For tonight's game, I expect to see San Antonio being more focused on defense. This is because the last time these two teams faced each other, back in Detroit earlier on the season, the Spurs had their worst defensive game of the season by allowing 119 points and an incredible offensive rating of 130.76 to the Pistons! I remember that game very well. San Antonio was completely surprised by Detroit, who set a fast pace that completely surprised the Spurs. Detroit had super offensive numbers with 51.7% FG, 10-22 3pts, 15 fast break points and 52 points in the paint! These numbers were too good to be done against an elite defense like the Spurs, so I expect San Antonio to get "revenge" from that game and try to shutdown Detroit's offense tonight.
On the other hand, Tony Parker absolutely crushed Jose Calderon in that game with 10-16 FG, 31 points and 8 assists. Parker's absence on this game will remove the biggest edge that the Spurs had for this match. Not that Calderon will shutdown the Spurs's guards, but things will be easier for the Spanish player without having to defend Parker tonight. For tonight's game, with San Antonio being focused and with Greg Monroe struggling against Tim Duncan, Detroit's offense will struggle as their guards are too inconsistent to handle the team's offense on their own. They had a good game against the Hornets's poor perimeter defense, but things will be different against San Antonio. After a stretch where the Pistons pretty much wanted to play run and gun, they are now back at their usual slower pace and I believe tonight's game will have nothing in common to the game played between these two teams back in Detroit. San Antonio will have another approach to their game plan, while Detroit will also try to play slower than they did in the first game. Therefore, I expect this contest to be a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 811/812 Under 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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