NBA - 803 Indiana Toronto @ 804 Toronto Raptors
Projected Line: 181 points
Indiana lost yesterday against the LA Clippers, in a game where Chris Paul was the MVP and Roy Hibbert didn't play due to suspension. For several times, Chris Paul would attack off the dribble and Indiana wouldn't prevent him from scoring at the rim, something that wouldn't have happened if Hibbert was playing. The Clippers scored 50 points in the paint, something noticeable, as it was the first time in twelve games that the Pacers allowed more than 50 points in the paint. The last team that was able to do that was Denver, who is #1 in the league in points in the paint per game.
For tonight, Roy Hibbert will be back and of course, Toronto's offense is very far from the Clippers's offense, especially in terms of ball movement and offensive flow. The truth is that Toronto's offense are really struggling on these two areas, as even though they faced a poor defensive team like the Cavaliers on their last game, Toronto still couldn't show any substantial improvement on offense from their previous poor offensive games, with too many isolation plays and contested jumpers. It's incredible how a team shoots 2-20 3pts against a poor defensive team like Cleveland. Tonight, the Raptors will face the #1 ranked defense in the league, so good luck for them. They'll need it!
On the other hand, Indiana's offense won't be in a good spot to perform well. Yesterday's game against the Clippers was physical and Coach Vogel gave some major minutes to their key players, with David West playing 39 minutes, Paul George 42 minutes and George Hill 38 minutes. They will be on a back to back spot tonight, so this isn't a good spot for them tonight. Their outside shooting is very streaky, so they should in producing good offense in tough spot like tonight's and this is what I expect to happen in here.
Toronto won at Indiana on overtime in early February, in the last game played between these two teams. That game had just 180 points in regulation. I took Toronto on that game, as I thought that Indiana would relax a bit, as they were in the middle of a winning streak and they were facing a lowly team. They didn't have the proper mindset for that game and they eventually lost that game. This time, as they lost yesterday against the Clippers, I expect Indiana to come fired up for this game and do what they can do best and more consistently: play very good defense. This won't be a fun game to watch. I expect a half court battle with Indiana's top ranked defense imposing their will. However, this isn't a good spot for them to perform well on offense, so I expect this game to be an ugly very low scoring affair. I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 186 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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