NBA - 819 Atlanta Hawks @ 820 Phoenix Suns
Projected Line: 200 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Atlanta is on a roll and they are playing some nice offensive basketball right now. They have probably the most explosive starting unit in the league and they are using it very well: Al Horford, Josh Smith, Kyle Korver, Devin Harris and Jeff Teague are all mobile players that run up and down the court and so, the Hawks are now a spectacular team on the break. Atlanta scored more than 20 fast break points in six of their last eight games and their last game at Utah was no exception of that with 20 fast break points, while shooting 8-12 FG in transition. To add to their ability of scoring in transition, Atlanta has also the hottest big man in the league right now. Al Horford is coming from another huge game against the Jazz with 14-22 FG, 34 points and 15 rebounds! He had the best month of his career in February with 21.5 ppg, 62.1% FG and 11.3 rpg! If we add to this, a much more focused Josh Smith now that the trade deadline has passed, it's easy to understand why Atlanta is playing so well right now.
I don't believe Phoenix will be able to have a good defensive game against the Hawks tonight. Their frontcourt isn't able to protect the rim with 67% FG allowed on this area over their last 10 games and so, we can expect both Jeff Teague and Devin Harris to attack the rim and finish their moves with easy layups tonight. Even with Coach Hunter, Phoenix's defense has been very vulnerable in transitions. They are mixing up good and bad transition numbers, but when they face good transitions teams, then the trend is quite evident: they allowed 30 and 20 fast break points to Oklahoma City, 17 fast break points to Golden State, 18 fast break points to Boston and 16 and 20 fast break points to San Antonio! Looking at the current form of the Hawks and their explosive lineup, we can expect Atlanta to score once again more than 20 fast break points tonight.
On the other side, I believe that Phoenix will have some edges that will allow them to have a decent offensive game as well tonight. The disadvantage of using a small lineup like Atlanta's current starting lineup is that they get vulnerable on rebounding and Phoenix has been quite well on offensive rebounding lately with 14.25 offensive rebounds per game over their last four contests. One of the biggest defensive weaknesses of the Hawks is the fact that they are just #21 in the league in post up defense and they showed once again their problems on this area at Utah by allowing Al Jefferson and Derrick Favors to shoot a combined of 18-33 (55%) FG. Phoenix have Marcin Gortat and Luis Scola, who are decent post up players and they should be able to take advantage of the struggles from Atlanta's defense on this area. With the Hawks pushing up the pace of this game, I believe that Phoenix will counter that with Goran Dragic, whose speed is a big advantage for the Suns. Phoenix is currently on a rate winning streak and they will come for this game with more confidence that they have been showing over the last few months.
Therefore, I expect this contest to be a fun game to watch, with a fast pace and a lot of transition points from both teams. Looking at the current totals line, I believe it is set way too low for the kind of game this contest will be and so, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Double Dime Play.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 819/820 Over 192,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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